Next Xbox; If not blu-ray, Then what?

[Dys]

A quick google search confirms that not only did I misread, but even my more liberal guesses were vastly over estimating the cost of producing a blu ray disc (presumably these costs are for producing them without accounting for hardware, I don't see how one could accurately calculate the cost of an unknown amount of discs including the startup costs). I can't immediately find any source suggesting the cost of producing a USB keychain, though interestingly it apparently costs something like $8000 per year, per title to have the rights to distribute media on a blu ray disc (again, I have no indication of whether or not there is a similar cost for flash drives).

At any rate, I still maintain that, even if the cost if producing a single disc is comparable, that it is still expensive and there are no shortage of alternatives that would make more sense.

Startup costs aren't going to be an issue- each individual studio doesn't have it's own Blu-ray printing operation, they contract it out to somebody who produces Blu-rays 24/7.

And such an operation would, presumably, be more costly than a 24/7 flash memory producing studio. Plus licensing fees.

 

[Mister Benoit]

There are currently 32GB SDHC cards out there which beats a 25GB single layer BD. Dual layer obviously holds 50Gb, but with flash memory becoming much more accessible, I don't see why the Xbox won't have Flash memory with Digital Distribution, plus a CD/DVD drive for the movie goers.

EDIT: Also found this info:
The Secure Digital Extended Capacity (SDXC) format was unveiled at CES 2009 (January 7?10, 2009). The maximum capacity defined for SDXC cards is 2 TB (2048 GB). The SDcard association selected Microsoft's proprietary exFAT file system in the official SDXC specification.

Proprietary Microsoft memory the size of an SD card that can hold 2TB? This HAS to be the way of physical distribution for Xbox. If not, then I don't know what they are thinking.

That's really really awesome regardless of what comes out of it.

The future is bright indeed.

 

[Echo136]

Its likely they'll either go BluRay which still has a lot of life in it (LA Noire can fit on one disk) or try to start up another format war, which they might hilariously lose again.

 

[Ozzythecat]

In all seriousness Microsoft will probably try to "develop" a new platform or just use BD's it's tough to say. Though I like the idea of them using SDHC cards but I feel the chance for piracy would be huge.

Actually, stopping piracy would be easier if they were using some kind of ROM- they could develop a proprietary card (nothing complicated, just have it use a different pin configuration), patent it, and not let anyone sell blank copies. They could try to do the same with Blu-ray- they don't need to develop a new technology, just modify the existing one enough so that the system won't run standard Blu-ray discs.

That's why I put develop in quotations, they wouldn't be starting from scratch but technically they'd be developing something I did it purely for semantics.

I'm also aware that making custom carts to thwart pirates isn't that difficult. However it still makes piracy quite the viable option, Nintendo has tried to stop the sale of flash carts but you can find quite a few Chinese online merchants with tons of them for sale.

 

[Conza]

If not Blu-ray? Seriously? They'd be shooting themselves not only in the foot, but in the chest, arm, leg and head if they didn't chose Blu-ray *reads OP*

I'm going to assume the next xbox won't have blu-ray..it probably won't...They're even trying to squeeze out a last drop of life with
the incoming May firmware update that gives a 15 percent-ish boost to disc space for their games.

If not blu, What are they planning on doing? Maybe trying to make their own new format just for the new console? Staying with DVDs even? Thoughts?

Firstly, why would you make that assumption?

Secondly that's impossible, unless you're describing some sort of new format for save files on the hard drive, physically increasing the size of a compact disc is not possible by any means, let alone a mere firmware update, the only way to increase game space on a disc, is to do some sort of dual layering (eg. 4.7GB single layer DVD = 9.4GB dual layer DVD), which only fixes future discs, or to upgrade formats to Blu-Ray, which would be far too expensive - even if they released an external Blu-ray drive (like thier HD DVD from my understanding), people would be loathed to buy a new add-on just to be able to read certain types of games.

Multiple disks are a far more simpler alternative stop gap, untill their next console - which must use Blu-ray discs.

Their own new format? Their software developers, not manufacturers. The big power companies in Japan have been driving new formats for decades, Sony invented the Compact Disc in the 70s, DVDs emerged in the late 90s thanks goes mostly to Toshiba, Sony also invented Blu-ray discs.

Options that exists in an alternate realities, and for the consoles, after these ones include these

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holographic_Versatile_Disc

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protein-coated_disc

Those two discs, now they are cool, they make Blu-ray look like a 5 1/2 inch floppy drive by comparison.

 

[Ozzythecat]

There are currently 32GB SDHC cards out there which beats a 25GB single layer BD. Dual layer obviously holds 50Gb, but with flash memory becoming much more accessible, I don't see why the Xbox won't have Flash memory with Digital Distribution, plus a CD/DVD drive for the movie goers.

EDIT: Also found this info:
The Secure Digital Extended Capacity (SDXC) format was unveiled at CES 2009 (January 7?10, 2009). The maximum capacity defined for SDXC cards is 2 TB (2048 GB). The SDcard association selected Microsoft's proprietary exFAT file system in the official SDXC specification.

Proprietary Microsoft memory the size of an SD card that can hold 2TB? This HAS to be the way of physical distribution for Xbox. If not, then I don't know what they are thinking.

How much would a 2 TB SD Card cost? O_O

I feel it would be really unstable too... God knows my 32 GB card likes to just lose files here and there... Though that might be my device not sure.

 

[BrEnNo1023]

Digital distribution

This, all games will be downloaded in HD quality and stored on a large HDD

Yes. Because everybody has a high speed internet connection.

You are aware that around 40% of consoles are not hooked up to the internet, right?

Hm, well that's actually quite a big hurdle to overcome. There goes my theory of digital distrib too :S

 

[rembrandtqeinstein]

Probably blu ray, but if someone crazy gets the reigns again it will be cartridges with both ram and rom storage. The game body would be in the rom, and updates, dlc etc would go on the ram.

That way game updates would be stored on the cartridge itself and people could play the same game at their friend's house without having to download updates.

Also that would eliminate the direct copying piracy that is going on now. Say what you want about microsoft but they have the only uncracked system.

 

[philcelery]

Also that would eliminate the direct copying piracy that is going on now. Say what you want about microsoft but they have the only uncracked system.

What system is that, the Zune?

 

[Amondren]

VHS of coarse because humanity is incapable of putting discs back in their cases and lose them.

 

[valkeminator]

Dont ow

Either way, Im more in favor of Hard Drive Direct Downloads.

thats a terrible idea, think of how much they will charge for that crap.

as it is, the xbox's on demand feature is already really bad at pricing.

Don't own a 360 and therefore haven't touched the price market for 360, but from what I heard it is very pricey... Still its a lot better than buying BluRays though.

At least theyre unlikely to use Blu Ray as I think its made by Sony?

 

[BloodSquirrel]

And such an operation would, presumably, be more costly than a 24/7 flash memory producing studio. Plus licensing fees.

Looking around, I can't find flash memory going for under $1/GB. A "flash memory producing stuido" would be more along the lines of a fabrication plant, which are FAR more expensive than an optical media printing press.

Also, I'm talking about the same kind of reader that currently exists on cameras/laptops with a different pin configuration or something. That would be trivial to develop. USB is designed as a universal format for connecting arbitrary devices to a PC/console, not as an actual drive interface, which makes it less than ideal for your systems primary drive.

 

[BloodSquirrel]

There are currently 32GB SDHC cards out there which beats a 25GB single layer BD. Dual layer obviously holds 50Gb, but with flash memory becoming much more accessible, I don't see why the Xbox won't have Flash memory with Digital Distribution, plus a CD/DVD drive for the movie goers.

EDIT: Also found this info:
The Secure Digital Extended Capacity (SDXC) format was unveiled at CES 2009 (January 7?10, 2009). The maximum capacity defined for SDXC cards is 2 TB (2048 GB). The SDcard association selected Microsoft's proprietary exFAT file system in the official SDXC specification.

Proprietary Microsoft memory the size of an SD card that can hold 2TB? This HAS to be the way of physical distribution for Xbox. If not, then I don't know what they are thinking.

How much would a 2 TB SD Card cost? O_O

I feel it would be really unstable too... God knows my 32 GB card likes to just lose files here and there... Though that might be my device not sure.

SDXC is a standard format, not an actual technology. They don't have actual 2TB cards in the works, but new SD cards will use the SDXC format, which uses addressing that can access up to 2TB.

 

[Funkysandwich]

There is no way Sony will let Microsoft use their technology.

Sony does own the rights to Blu-ray, right?

They're a backer in the consortium behind it. They're also in the same position with DVD's, and Microsoft uses that...

But they won't ever get their hands on Blu-ray, I bet.

Well, until it dies along with all other physical media, lol.

Companies rarely turn down more money. They'll sell the rights to microsoft.

But that would be suicide for the Sony consoles. What else do they have left as an edge over them? Microsoft has so much going for it this generation, for Sony to just hand over the one thing they have in advantage - disc space and arguably better graphics - just wouldn't be worth it.

Unless Sony just forgets the whole console thing.

This is speculation about the next Xbox, therefore it is unfair to compare the PS3 to the not-yet-announced next xbox. No doubt Sony will play a cautious wait-and-see game with the next console generation.

The problem is that Microsoft can afford to throw money at something until it succeeds, kind of like how they got the first xbox off the ground, and how they were able to popularize the 360 despite the RROD issues.