Sayvara post=18.69274.655876 said:
werepossum post=18.69274.655760 said:
Regarding solar, an average 30' by 40', 1,200 square foot house probably has a 200A panel at 120/240V, probably with a peak draw of maybe 150 amps or 36KW demand. If the panels are 33% efficient, that means at 1 watt/square meter you need 108 square meters or 1,162.5 square feet. So if that 1,200 square foot house has a shed roof oriented toward the south, it's physically feasible at 33% efficiency. But that overstates the difficulties in solar.
Uhm... 1kW per square meter is what you get at the equator, at noon, when the solar panel is pointed right at the sun. What you seem to be forgetting here is that as soon as you angle the panel, you get a smaller area that is pointed at the sun. Turn the panel 90 degress and you got 0 square meters pointed at the sun and you get 0kW, no matter how big it is.
Also the further from eth equator you are, the longer the rays of the sun has to travel through the atmosphere, bleeding off energy there. And further more, the places on earth that need the most energy (because it gets cold in the winter) are those that get less sun, because of the Earth's axial tilt.
/S
I actually used 1 kW/S.M. because someone had posted that number and I was too lazy late at night to look it up, so I'll take a moment to work the problem like I would if I were giving a quick estimate to a client for my own house. In my particular area, Southeastern Tennessee (USA), the average capturable solar irradiation in the visual spectra is 4.5 to 5.0 KWH/S.M. I know from my electric bill that I use approximately 1,100 KWH ($110) per month, so to pay my whole bill I'd need to capture 8.15 KWH/day. Using Sharp's calculator, I'd need a 22.5KW system to cover 100% of my electric bill, or 102 Sharp #ND-220U2 panels at 13.5% efficiency. Each panel is 1.63 square meters, so I'll need 166 square meters for the installation, equal to 1,787 square feet. My house is actually a bit less than 1,700 square feet not counting garage, but it's on two levels, so my actual roof area is about 1,560 square feet. If I covered my entire roof area with solar panels, I'd need panels of 15.5% efficiency. This assumes I'm on the grid and can buy and sell electricity with the utility as needed. If I'm off the grid, I'll need batteries and more conversion equipment to provide power during rainy periods and at night, so I can expect additional losses of approximately 33%. Now I need panels of 23% efficiency, still well within today's technological limits. So technically, I can run my entire house with solar panels either on the grid, or off the grid, without even attempting any additional load shedding or increased efficiency measures on the house and its subsystems, using only readily available technology.
Now the problem comes in - the initial cost. An installed solar energy system at the 13.5% efficiency level runs about $8 per watt. This is the rate used in Sharp's calculations, but also correlates well with the $7 to $9 per watt I found when checking out solar this week. That includes power regulation, conversion to AC line voltage, and metering. Therefore my 22.5KW system will cost me a whopping $180,000 whilst saving me a paltry $1,300 a year. Even ignoring cost of money and the value of my time for maintenance labor, simple pay-back takes one hundred thirty-eight years! Since neither money nor time is ever free, in effect my solar system never pays me back at all. Even worse, my costs increase exponentially with increased panel efficiency.
Thus as I said solar is perfectly feasible today from a technological standpoint - we could even take every house with good sun exposure off the grid with current technology. It would be much cheaper in dryer, more southern states and much more expensive in Minnesota, but there are no purely technological barriers.
What solar is currently not is economically feasible. Assuming an average 25 year life, solar energy must reach an installed price of about $1.44 per watt at our current electricity cost to just break even, ignoring the cost of money. When you consider cost of money and a maximum 10 year payback, now you're looking at perhaps $0.30 per watt, depending on your cost of money. (It's much worse when you consider solar for commercial use, because now your maintenance is a significant cost.) An installed cost of $0.30 per watt means a state of the art 40% efficiency, 1 square meter panel (assuming an average of 0.3 kilowatts/square meter capturable irradiance, not an unreasonable assumption for much of the world) needs to output an average of 120 watts (a 400 watt panel using standard 1.0KW/S.M. rating) and cost no more than $36 to buy and install. Currently that theoretical panel would probably be in the range of $5,500 to buy and install.
Thus solar power is now technologically feasible, but is not currently economically feasible. Nor is it likely to become so any time soon. Solar is useful, but won't become widespread unless and until a paradigm shift occurs in solar panels.
Someone please let me know if I'm missed anything.
EDIT: Kiesel - strip mines make Baby Jesus cry.
