I am not going based soley on me thinking it will just be out next year. No, it is not solid fact and could easily turn out not true. However they did mention it likely coming out late in 2010, but either I imagined reading that, or due to the scope of the game would take them much longer. (Id rather they take longer than remove even more stuff) Also it would fit their release pattern of 4 years. TES 2 is the only one out of place but if it was released two years later would fit. (Arena: 1994, Daggerfall: 1996, Morrowind: 2002, Oblivion:2006, and if fitting the pattern, TES V:2010)
Doubt me if you want to, you would not be wrong for it, but I still will go on thinking it will be 2010 until they say otherwise, or if nothing happens and it is Jan 1, 2011.