Bob_McMillan said:
From what I hear, Moonlight is pretty damn Oscar-baity too.
Remus said:
Moonlight, which actually won.
Wait.. what..
Is Oscar Bait one of those terms which has lost all meaning now, so we just throw it out to describe any movie which doesn't have explosions in it or is vaguely character and/or performance driven..
The academy does not have a terribly long history of picking movies about closeted black men. If you want to win an Oscar, statistically you really, really
shouldn't make a movie about that. You should make a fluffy inspirational film about middle aged white people (preferably men) getting over disability or mental health issues, or white people single handedly solving racism, or if you absolutely must do something substantial make sure the source of the emotional trauma is something in the past which primarily affected white people, like world war 1 or the holocaust.
I think you'd be hard pressed to find many people who thought Moonlight would win. It was critically acclaimed, but that doesn't mean anything with the academy. It won, essentially, because the dynamics of the academy have actually changed a lot in the past few years, and to be honest that's a good thing.