Piracy Outpacing Sales by 4:1, Says U.K. Game Body

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BoogieManFL

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Shale_Dirk said:
BoogieManFL said:
4 to 1?

Modern Warfare 2 (one of the most pirated games of 2009 I think) apparently got $550 million in the first 5 days. I've seen places that said it was pirated 4.1 to 5 million times.

Math isn't my strongest skill by far, but assuming it was $60 a copy, doesn't that figure to about 91,666,666 copies? I doubt that many were sold so I'm not sure how they got 550 million.

But I've read it sold 4.7 million copies in the FIRST DAY in the US and UK. I even saw one estimate that put it at 7 million (maybe worldwide?). So.. 4:1? Really?
550 / 60 = 9.16

as in, 9 million, not 90 million.

Nonetheless, that's still a 1:2 ratio, not 4:1
Heh, thanks. I think I put an extra zero or something. That's why my math teacher was right to fail me way back when... :) I should check my work more often.

I always assumed the level of piracy was overestimated. Still quite bad sure enough, but not so bad as many people try to say. Not even taking into account how many of those pirates wouldn't have bought the game had they been unable to pirate it anyway.
 

zwober

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vxicepickxv said:
A long time ago I paid for a couple of pirated games. They were on this computer called an Apple 2c. I had to pay the costs to get new blank 5.25 inch disks so that we could have the games copied onto them. I wish I could remember the names of those games, because I'd try to find them again, in a non-magnetic medium that wouldn't be completely corrupted.
Actually, i can buy that. My brother might have done the same, i seem to remember him getting Chuck Yeagers air combat on floppy when i was younger. But still, does anyone have to pay these days, to get their new copy of awsume-game 2011 ? Yes, i admit that piracy is a problem and those potential sales would affect a gamedeveloper in a bad way, but. seriously, does anyone even activly Buy a pirated version of a game ? i mean, pay for more then the cost of the medium ? that´s why i was wondering about the platform.

Would a console-user be more likley to buy a pirated medium then a pc-owner ? the pc owner usually has the internet, so why would he pay when ge can get it himself ? the console-owner would ofc (im guessing) need a modded console to be able to play his pirate-copy-game, but wouldent that require internet-accsess aswell ?
 

Aurgelmir

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zwober said:
Im curios. has anyone ever had to pay for a pirated version of a game ? Becasue ive never really heard it, nor seen anyone trying to sell one. Ofc, that dosent mean its not being done, Im just curious as to what platform a money-pirate goes for. Sadly, statistics given to us by firms such as these never give us those numbers. or well, they dont give them to me on a silver platter with whipped cream and cherries. Whats a guy supposed to do to get some darned Relevant-Statistic-objects on a silver platter with whipped cream and cherries on top ?

blech, im going to hit the sack.
This is more a thing of the past, but in the days before the internet it was very common. Asia was well known for selling pirate copies of games, movies and music.

But that doesn't mean it didn't happen here in the west either. You could probably find a person on a shady street corner sell you pirated stuff.

But then came the internet and what was once cheap knockoffs became free torrents.


This sort of brings us to another morality question:
What is worse, buying a pirate copy? or Downloading a free copy?

I mean the industry makes the two seem equal, but I am not so sure.
 

nipsen

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"What is clear is people who 'share' games via P2P networks or buy illegal copies are not buying the real product, and this reduces retailer sales. It can provide the consumer with a sub-standard product and money paid to illegal traders does not flow back to the creative," he continued. "In turn, investors see higher risks/lower returns, and this in turn will undermine confidence in the sector and lower the amount of money invested, reducing the developer's chance to create new products."

He added: "besides, lawyers gotta eat, man!".
 

Something Amyss

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Dec 3, 2008
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Generic Gamer said:
And we wonder why games are expensive. This is what happens when we allow permissiveness to go too far. There's a fine line between 'you won't be hated for who you are' and 'anything you ever do is OK'.

Guess which version people in the UK grow up believing?
I'm sorry, but I don't see anything that would make UK games more expensive than the US analogues aside from VAT. Factoring that in, games are actually pretty damn close (Though that can vary a little bit based on the strength of the dollar and the pound).

Games aren't all that expensive, especially when you adjust for inflation. Trying to correlate the two is dishonest. Speaking of dishonesty:

deth2munkies said:
First of all these are ridiculously misleading statistics:

1) It assumes that they can account for every pirated game by magic. Even torrent following sites miss a few sites or direct download links, and some of them give completely inaccurate data because it's the amount of times a torrent is started and doesn't give an accurate number of how many actually downloaded the whole thing.

2) It doesn't account for the fact that a considerable amount of pirated games are games that are currently unattainable because of age or platform. Ex: One of the top torrents on TPB is a SNES emulator pack...there's no possibility of a lost sale because those games and consoles are available only on eBay and other auction sites.

3) Following from 2, these statistics are unfairly weighted towards implying that every pirated game is a copy of a game coming out that year, thus showing that piracy is outpacing sales for current games, which is more than likely completely and totally false.

Piracy is an inevitability in the age of the internet, and it gives you more marketing data, so use it for what it can be used for and suck it up. Stop whining and either come up with an unbreakable DRM that doesn't fuck over us legitimate customers, or use piracy to track sales and make good marketing and follow-up decisions.
Thank you.

I'm not saying piracy is good, but these numbers are ridiculously cooked.
 

BabyRaptor

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Not to defend piracy in any way, but I'm curious...How do they go about getting these numbers, exactly?
 

Kroxile

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BabyRaptor said:
Not to defend piracy in any way, but I'm curious...How do they go about getting these numbers, exactly?
1. Stick fingers up butt

2. Pull out first thing they can grab

3. ???

4. PROFIT!!!
 

Lord_Jaroh

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Atmos Duality said:
Snip
Lord_Jaroh said:
Barring the questionable legality of any acton, what is the difference between: borrowing a game from a friend, borrowing a game from a library, copying a game that your friend copied onto his ftp server, grabbing a copy of a torrent file of a game?

*snip*

There was a time when women couldn't vote, when Black people weren't free men, when it was wrong to speak up against the church, when it was wrong to want a different future than your father. These were all laws at one point, because they "seemed right at the time". Those laws changed, as times changed, as technology changed, as people's thoughts of what is right or wrong changed. Copyright laws are outdated and wrong. They need to be changed as well.
A nice spiel, but it's ultimately saying "Hey, it's OK to pirate ANYTHING, because The Copyright laws are unfair." since you just equated every form of lending to piracy. With that precedent in place, only an idiot would pay for, well, ANYTHING DIGITAL or equally easily replicated.

The reason software piracy is an entirely different beast is simple:
All tangible products take real effort, time and/or money to replicate. By the time you can replicate something, chances are, you're already skilled enough to make your own original, functional product (as long as you don't violate a patent, which is similar to a copyright, but more limited in span).
If I wanted to copy a particular model of say, a toaster (like your beloved chair), it would take considerable time, effort, and material to do so. Ultimately, it would probably benefit me most to just buy the damn toaster unless I really wanted to learn the procedure in the process.
You memorizing the book takes effort (serious effort), so there is still a real incentive to buy/rent the book for your family as it would save you considerable time.
Loaning/lending games/titles is in a fuzzy area because it can either act as a form of piracy in principle, or it can guarantee another sale (in the case of multiplayer games).
The logic of this example can be extended to ANY GIVEN TANGIBLE PRODUCT.

Art...is also not set in stone since there is something to be said about the quality of the reproduction of the piece. A laser printer copy might look nice, but it probably wouldn't compare to the original. Most world-famous art, however, is routinely repainted as practice for aspiring artists and usually given public license for reproduction.
It's ultimately up to the work's owner whether they want to charge for a copy or not.

Software piracy in comparison to all of that is childishly simple to commit, and thus, a new problem arose for a new age. Learning the programming, graphics, sound, and game design, then dedicating the thousands upon thousands of work-hours to create even a mediocre game simply pales in comparison to how easy it is to replicate the published end result (and when said end result is otherwise indistinguishable from the original).
The risk is minimal, the cost is as close to zero as it gets, but the payoff is potentially excellent.

Now, I do agree that Copyright laws are indeed outdated, but I must ask for an alternative; one that doesn't all but legalize every single piece of software as freeware and therefore kill the entire market.
It's clear that the current laws are abused (check out the record label companies. They regularly screw over their clients in unspeakable ways. How would you like someone taking 90% of all the profits on a piece of work they barely had a hand in making?)

We've already seen the futility of DRM, and the inept global legal system try to scare hackers and pirate sources into compliance. So it's not as though the problem can be curbed at the source without creating entirely new, and worse problems than before.

Right now, we're counting on people regularly (and blindly, given the increasingly self-destructive nature of some DRM) buying these titles to sustain the market.
Given your logic and justification, they would only buy these titles because they are not aware of the alternative.
How pathetic is it that we have to rely on gross consumer ignorance to sustain the gaming market?

If I am to believe the statistics (and knowing what I know about human nature, those statistics are likely true), most pirates are not going to act ethically. Over 3 out of 4 of them won't contribute to paying for the product.

At this time, there's no real solution short of people to just willingly stop pirating, and you can imagine how effective THAT will be. I suppose it's pointless to even argue it. If you're already pirating, nothing short of getting exceedingly unlucky and being arrested will stop you. Random nobodies on the internet certainly won't.

So unless the next response is exceedingly intelligent and rational, this conversation is done because I'm tired of trying to futility argue ethics and economics to people who don't want to listen.
You misunderstand me. I don't pirate. I have a rather substantial game collection that would speak otherwise (much to my girlfriend's dismay :) ). You ask "How pathetic is it that we have to rely on gross consumer ignorance to sustain the gaming market?" And I have to agree. The industry needs to change.

How many game "previews" have you read or seen that is setting up game "X" as the greatest thing to gaming since Jesus, and that you would be a fool if you don't own this game. So you hurry up and pre-order the game, all hyped based on the information (or mis-information rather) that you have been fed. You get the game on release day, hurry home to play it and discover that it is absolute drivel, or there are technical problems galore, or there is a day 1 patch that is fixing issues that should have been caught before it went to the press. You hurry online to share your woes, only to discover to your dismay that every review site that had been previously heralding this game as mankind's greatest gift is giving it mediocre scores at best and saying that you should hold off purchasing it until technical issues are fixed or that if only certain things (that they didn't mention in the preview, or glazed over quickly) would have been fixed before release.

This is a discription on how the industry, from publishers, marketers, reviewers, previewers, programmers, etc. operate (as a whole, in very general terms). They try and create a game as quickly as possible, hoping to shove it out the door into as many gullible peoples' eager hands so they can start work on the next best thing. They shill their product much like the hair tonic and love potion travelling salesmen of the old west, but unlike them, aren't strung up by their neck when found out. The point is they are trying to fool you into buying their product, instead of relying on quality to sell it, mainly because there is no accountability. You can't return a crappy game and get your money back. Instead your only recourse is to sell it back to a chain as "used" or to find some other sap who you can fool into buying it or you suck it up and add another gaming loss to your heap.

Whatever solution is brought forth from this debacle of a generation of gaming, it must be a solution where the entertainment industry as a whole must work with technology instead of fighting to control it.

1) Stop treating customers like thieves. Why are pirates getting DRM-free complete versions of games? Why am I getting hampered with install limits, online connections required, DLC cut out from the game only to be resold to you later? A giant "Don't copy this product or you'll be prosecuted!" screen?

2) Stop treating pirates like potential customers waiting to be converted. They will not be. Stop catering to them and start making your games catered to the people that actually give you money!

3) Release games that are as bug-free as possible. This means more playtesting. This means more quality control. This means that when I buy a game, other than a wierd graphical glitch that occurs only when I am standing on an out of the way place looking in a wierd direction, my game should run fine.

4) Allow returns, if not to the distributor that you purchased it from, than at least to the publisher, digital or physical.

5) Work with the media to give out truthful information about your upcoming game, rather than using them to spread misinformation and hype. Demos that are accurate examples of the game for example.

6) Offer incentives to be customers! Give out free versions of old games. Create new updated copies that work with current gen standards (not just a straight port...). Make Collectors Editions that are actually Collector's Editions. This would be giving a person a reason to buy a physical product.

7) Stop saddling me with things I don't want in the item I've purchased. Unskippable menus/scenes/trailers. Forced advertisements. Forced connections to the internet.

8) Stop trying to sell me the same product in a different wrapping multiple times! Why do people have to turn to alternative means to put their game collection on a handheld? Or from the Playstation Network to the handheld? Or from an older system to the current system? Or if you feel the need to charge me something for your same product, you had better damned well give me a real reason other than "I want money".

9) Come up with an economical model that uses the internet the way it operates and grows rather than trying to make the people use the internet the way you want it to be used. There are many businesses that are doing this. YouTube? Google? eBay? Twitter? Facebook? Nine Inch Nails?

These are just common sense things that I thought of off the top of my head. I'm sure that people with more know-how than me can think of more.
 

Dogstile

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Sub standard product?

He can shove that back up its arse, because pirating games usually would net me a better product.

And I still buy your stuff publishers. Aren't I a good boy. Now stop being dicks about it and quit with the crippleware
 

incal11

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Lord_Jaroh said:
2) Stop treating pirates like potential customers waiting to be converted. They will not be. Stop catering to them and start making your games catered to the people that actually give you money!
Seeing as the most pirated games are also the biggest commercial successes it might be that pirates are in fact also customers.
 

zwober

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Aurgelmir said:
This sort of brings us to another morality question:
What is worse, buying a pirate copy? or Downloading a free copy?

I mean the industry makes the two seem equal, but I am not so sure.
the pirated copy means a loss-in-sales.
the bought-pirate-copy means a loss-in-sales, but some darned ninja still got money from our cashcow! i guess the pirate who sells his ill-gotten booty would be the evil-er of the two, but for the developer, both are evil evil evil people who dosent pay their taxes and cheated at their SAT´s.

the pirate-on-the-go might think "yeah, ok, so i stole this copy of a game, but yeesh, least im not making money out of it, and that´s kinda ok - right ?"

what im curios over at the moment is, when someone makes a pie-chart of pirates and their booty, do they throw in all the booty in one big pile or do they seperate the silk, dubloons and the rum ? (Read, Music, Movies and Software (both game and common))

im afraid i never trust these pie-charts that the pie-chart-compnay do, since this information is never added, and then it is, its never clear as to what part of the pie-chart that´s what.
 

Lord_Jaroh

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incal11 said:
Lord_Jaroh said:
2) Stop treating pirates like potential customers waiting to be converted. They will not be. Stop catering to them and start making your games catered to the people that actually give you money!
Seeing as the most pirated games are also the biggest commercial successes it might be that pirates are in fact also customers.
Some pirates are customers, yes, but developers/publishers/investors do not see that. They only see the enemy, and the enemy must be stopped! If this enemy were to buy the game instead of pirating it, they will make more money.

I'm reminded of countless MMOs that try to capture the WoW market by trying to make their game more like WoW in experience. What they don't get is that people will not quit playing WoW to come to your game just because it is like WoW. They are already playing WoW! And the customers that you did have because the game was not WoW you have just alienated. Thus you've killed all of your customer base in one fell swoop.

Pirates will play your game no matter what DRM/online connection you add. And they will happily play it without those "features" Not only that, but your paying customers will get more and more crippled and buggy games and feel all the worse for it. Or you will drive your paying customers away to become pirates so that they can get the better version of your game!

Make your game based upon the customers you know you will get, your actual "market". The pirates are a non-issue. The ones that do buy your game, bonus!
 

Centrophy

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I call bollocks. How are they tracing this piracy figure? That's pulling statistics out of your bum. What, do pirated copies of things have SmartIDs where they can trace it?
 

Atmos Duality

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stinkychops said:
The statistical evidence presented here is so vague even your suppositions cannot be supported.

What games are being pirated? Are they being pirated more than once by the same person? How many people wouldn't buy the game without piracy? and so on.
The proportion is already vague. I'm working with what is presented.
And by no means would I accept this firm's data as proof (how reliable can you actually gauge a black market? Due to its very nature, you can't. Almost all of it is done in secret, anonymously, or in person. It's too distributive.), but interpreting these results would assume that in a 1 copy sold: 4 copies created.

Even if the degree of error is 50%, that's still 2:1, which means the "At least 1" rule for statistics apply.

As for other suppositions, it's safe to assume that more people aren't necessarily going to buy the game because of piracy. The problem with the argument in that other article, is that the correlation could just as easily be interpreted the other way.

He observed that when piracy rates increased, his sales increased. It's entirely possible that more people wanted to pirate his title (because it is good) because it's becoming a strong seller. It's possible that both events occurred, with one spurring the other on collectively.

But we cannot say that for certain. We need more of the picture; what's really going on.
 

(LK)

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BabyRaptor said:
Not to defend piracy in any way, but I'm curious...How do they go about getting these numbers, exactly?
Sometimes it's as simple an answer as "f*** off, that's how".

Other times the methodology of producing the final quoted figures has been outlined in the abstract of the study, and you can clearly see that the researcher has arbitrarily multiplied their numbers by coefficients that they decide with little or no justification for their choice of values (IE they will decide at one point to multiply raw data by 4 without giving a data-based justification for doing so, instead handwaving it with a weak explanation grounded in assumption).

Given that I can find no clear means of accessing their study through their website or through the link, I'm inclined to think they used the "f*** off" method of statistical analysis. This is the standard method of assaying piracy rates used by anyone affiliated with developers or publishers.

The whole subject is an affront to scientific literacy, and is actually somewhat of a standout even in the field of for-hire statistical study, which is already rife with fraud and deceit.