Piracy Statistics, whats up with that?

[maxben]

Ok, so I was considering various game companies whining about piracy. Fine, fair enough, but why are we talking about piracy as relative to game purchases. Like the recent news regarding Android, companies want to feel the victim and talk about "piracy rate" which is piracy/sales. Doesnt anyone else see a problem with that? If piracy is static than there is no high rate of piracy on the android, because the rate of piracy will change from product to product. So if there are 50 pirates on the android, and the game is attractive to 100 legitimate customers we have 1:2 ratio. But if there are 50 pirates but the game is only attractive to 25 legitimate customers we have 2:1 ratio. I think companies need to refer to absolute size of piracy as opposed to relative to sales to accurately talk of piracy issues, and talk about absolute sales by removing piracy when talking about sales.

What do you guys think, am I off on this? And no, this isnt about defending or attacking piracy, its merely about discussing how these numbers ought to be considered.

 

[odBilal]

What I dont understand is, how do they know how much a game got pirated? Like Crytek saying Crysis got pirated a bajillion times but how do they know? Do they go on a torrent website and look how often it got downloaded or something?

 

[DoPo]

You are wrong, very wrong, OP. You start from the assumption that companies want to be fair or even accurate. They will mangle the information they give the best way it suits them because...it suits them.

But anyway, there is some merit in talking about piracy rate relative to a platform. If platform X has a three times higher piracy rate than platform Y, then yes, it stands to reason that that software released for X is likely to be pirated more.

 

[dimensional]

I would never lend too much credence to statistics they have long been used just to suit a purpose rather than reflect something although they are not necessarily exclusive to each other.

For piracy statistics well they serve no purpose other than so devs/publishers can point and say look how much money we are losing due to pirates which is of course false anyway, how these statistics are even compiled could also be questionable.

 

[ThriKreen]

So anyone remember what happened with Demigod?

 

[Wolfram23]

This is a really good read regarding piracy (and long):

http://www.tweakguides.com/Piracy_1.html

 

[Zipa]

So anyone remember what happened with Demigod?

I thought that used impulse (or w/e gamestop call it now ) as its DRM

 

[UnSub]

A piracy rate that is a ratio of sold copies to pirated copies does need to factor in the number of copies sold, and I think that works as a comparative measure. That kind of ratio balances out a title that has lower sales but the same rate of piracy, whereas if you are taking the absolute platform piracy figure, it will be heavily skewed by the number of sales i.e. higher selling titles will appear to be less pirated than lower selling titles.

... if I'm understanding you correctly.

Most sales figures do remove pirated copies. It can get tricky when companies talk about player base versus number of copies sold though.

 

[More Fun To Compute]

Losses due to piracy are traditionally always massively over estimated because it helps corporate accountants defraud governments.

But actual piracy rates naturally are high because people like free things even if they don't want or need them.

 

[ThriKreen]

So anyone remember what happened with Demigod?

I thought that used impulse (or w/e gamestop call it now ) as its DRM

I was referring more to how the huge numbers of pirated versions flooded the match server to the point that they couldn't even serve HTML pages.

 

[evilneko]

To come up with a purchased to pirated ratio, it's really quite simple.

First, take the number sold. For extra dramatic effect, use the number sold in the first week, but don't mention that when presenting.

Second, throw a dart at a dartboard. If you don't like the number you hit, throw another.

Third, multiply that number by the first number and call it the number of pirated copies.
(Alternatively, combine steps 2 and 3 into a single step, and just pull a number out of your ass)

Fourth (or third, if you opted to just make up a number), present your dramatic ratio to someone! The press, or congress even!

 

[Zipa]

So anyone remember what happened with Demigod?

I thought that used impulse (or w/e gamestop call it now ) as its DRM

I was referring more to how the huge numbers of pirated versions flooded the match server to the point that they couldn't even serve HTML pages.

Oh yeah I forgot about that, I think I remember Brad Wardell and co pulling quite a number of all nighters to isolate the hackers so genuine people could get a game. They did a good job with it though in the end as I recall.

 

[NotALiberal]

This is a really good read regarding piracy (and long):

http://www.tweakguides.com/Piracy_1.html

That guy is an idiot, who is clearly VERY biased.

Simple fact of the matter is, I was one of those pirates because I had no money as a kid. I now purchase all my games, and went and bought all the games I pirated and actually played when I was younger, and you know what? DRM is not "hysteria". When a illegal copy is more convenient than a real copy, what incentive do I have to go and buy the game?

I don't think he's an idiot for not supporting piracy, I think he's an idiot for missing the point by a large margin. He cherry picked a couple of non DRM games that were pirated (he even used the Witcher 2's overly inflated estimate), and then used them as evidence as to why "PIRATES ARE EVILLLLL NO MATTER WHAT YOU DO". No guy, that is not how it works, you build goodwill and trust with your customers, YOU will get people buying your games. There will still be pirates, but there will always be dickbags who pirate regardless of what you do.

Fact of the matter is, look at Valve, their games are affordable, convenient to obtain, and are genuinely good games. Piracy is NOT a problem for them. Simple. If more companies were like Valve, or CD Projekt, you would have less piracy, and more people actually buying their games.

To be clear, I don't support piracy, and buy every single one of my games, but the solution is not "accepting" DRM, and facing the "harsh" reality we are the ones causing the problem. No, the publishers are, their corporate bureaucracy and short sightedness are the ones doing the real damage, not the "EVIL PIRRRATTES", who you can't really stop, short of making their games unplayable.

Also, his idea that we "shouldn't support Steam blindly" is fucking stupid. THAT IS HOW CAPITALISM WORKS. They provide the best service? Then why would I take my money elsewhere?

 

[RobfromtheGulag]

Aww I was all set to go and read that 10 page report on the issue when Notaliberal comes and shuts it down.

I don't worry too much about the stats, they're just news freebies as far as gaming is related. Might as well just make an article for every game that comes out - this many copies were pirated, Arrrh.

I bought Bulletstorm, it supposedly got pirated a ton. I bought Crysis 2, it got pirated to hell. So I'm obviously not making a dent in their figures.

Didn't buy D3 though

 

[Wolfram23]

This is a really good read regarding piracy (and long):

http://www.tweakguides.com/Piracy_1.html

That guy is an idiot, who is clearly VERY biased.

Simple fact of the matter is, I was one of those pirates because I had no money as a kid. I now purchase all my games, and went and bought all the games I pirated and actually played when I was younger, and you know what? DRM is not "hysteria". When a illegal copy is more convenient than a real copy, what incentive do I have to go and buy the game?

I don't think he's an idiot for not supporting piracy, I think he's an idiot for missing the point by a large margin. He cherry picked a couple of non DRM games that were pirated (he even used the Witcher 2's overly inflated estimate), and then used them as evidence as to why "PIRATES ARE EVILLLLL NO MATTER WHAT YOU DO". No guy, that is not how it works, you build goodwill and trust with your customers, YOU will get people buying your games. There will still be pirates, but there will always be dickbags who pirate regardless of what you do.

Fact of the matter is, look at Valve, their games are affordable, convenient to obtain, and are genuinely good games. Piracy is NOT a problem for them. Simple. If more companies were like Valve, or CD Projekt, you would have less piracy, and more people actually buying their games.

To be clear, I don't support piracy, and buy every single one of my games, but the solution is not "accepting" DRM, and facing the "harsh" reality we are the ones causing the problem. No, the publishers are, their corporate bureaucracy and short sightedness are the ones doing the real damage, not the "EVIL PIRRRATTES", who you can't really stop, short of making their games unplayable.

Also, his idea that we "shouldn't support Steam blindly" is fucking stupid. THAT IS HOW CAPITALISM WORKS. They provide the best service? Then why would I take my money elsewhere?

Actually... when you see something like 4 to 5 times more illegally obtained copies of a game on PC than Xbox, PS3, or Wii, the natural thing for developers to do is go to consoles. As should be very apparent, almost all AAA games in the last 5 years or more has been a console game with the possibility of a PC port that almost never delivers a really great experience on PC. Here and there we get some love, such as Battlefield 3, but mostly if you want a good PC game it's going to be a lower budget game. Nothing against them, but I want some excellent big budget games on PC. So the pirating is specifically hurting PC Gamers.

Also, most DRM - in particular the ones he mentions like SecuROM, are very docile and you really shouldn't give a shit about it. Obviously methods like UbiSoft's always-on and limited install stuff is really crappy and we shouldn't have to deal with that, but something that is just run in the background and, for someone (me) with two decades of PC gaming has had zero issues with it, I just can't imagine why there's any issue there.

As for the games he picked that had no DRM... there's not many of those. Why don't you go dig up statistics on the legit sales vs pirated versions of all the non-DRM games for us? Obviously CDProjekt RED offers amazing value and customer trust but their game was still pirated a billion times. Even if their estimates are off by 50%, they still got pirated way too much. Basically, he's just proving that the common thought that pirates are pirating due to hating DRM is bullshit. It's not saying PIRATES ARE EEEVVVIIILLLL, just that a lot of them are liars.

He also clearly doesn't say pirating can or even should be stopped completely. In fact one of his main reasons for supporting DRM is that by delaying a game getting cracked by even 1 or 2 days can hugely help with sales. He points out many games that are leaked before even being available legitimately and they almost universally do poorly, especially in comparison to games where they weren't cracked for 4 or 5 days after release.

Finally, you shouldn't support Steam blindly. Yeah, if they are offering a good price and service then use them, but there's a lot of Valve-heads out there who don't even bother checking the 75% off sales on Gamefly or Impulse, Amazon, or hell even Origin (ok, their sales are more like 25% off). Most of the time when I want to buy a game, I search for where I can get it at the best price rather than just going to the Steam Store and getting it. If it's a comparable price to everywhere else, then sure I'll prefer to get it on Steam, but being ignorant isn't good for consumers.

 

[templar1138a]

That ratio is further messed up because often, piracy of a game happens before and/or after that game has been purchased by the same person.

For example, say someone played X-Wing Alliance back in the day of Windows 98. Years pass, they have Windows 7, they find one of their X-Wing Alliance discs, but can't find the other one. Or they can't find the install code that used to come on the back of CD-ROM boxes and manuals (remember those annoying bastards?) and can't find a reliable list of CD-keys to try. What then? They pirate it. Because they've already bought the game. Why pay for it twice on account of an anti-piracy method that's clearly moot, especially since the game has become a collector's item?

And another example: The Steam summer sale had Railworks 3 at 50% off for its entire duration. Having enjoyed both Harvest Moon and the Sims, one could enjoy playing a game about driving various types of trains for non-combat challenges. However, even with the discount, it's still a lot of money given the expansion content available for that game. And for some reason, game developers no longer release demos. Railworks 3 is hit-or-miss, and one might not want to blow away their money on those odds. So what do they do? They pirate it. They play it for a day or two, the goal being to completely wipe the pirated version from their computer once they know if they want to keep playing or not. If one enjoys it, then they buy the game. It's an illegal download that leads to buying the game.

 

[Phlakes]

and facing the "harsh" reality we are the ones causing the problem. No, the publishers are, their corporate bureaucracy and short sightedness are the ones doing the real damage, not the "EVIL PIRRRATTES", who you can't really stop, short of making their games unplayable.

If people didn't pirate games in the first place, DRM and all that shit wouldn't exist. They responded to the problem, and I'm not saying that their response didn't cause other problems, but it's ridiculous to say that publishers deserve what they're getting because they're protecting their products the wrong way.

 

[BiscuitTrouser]

When a illegal copy is more convenient than a real copy, what incentive do I have to go and buy the game?

Question. You are in a bakery and the baker goes out back to deal with his family for a minute. You are alone in the shop. There are no cameras. You can take the bread and run and no one will ever know. Not even the baker. He has a poor memory of how much bread he has. Also he likes you, he would NEVER believe you took it. What incentive do you have not to obtain this easier illegal bread?

I'm just nit picking the rest of what you said is good. I too think steam is the obvious step forward. Seriously people. Capitolism requires a few good traits to succeed in:

Try new and better things.
Learn from successful rivals.
Its easier to cater to the market than change it.

Game companies just dont seem to give a shit.

 

[Ryan Hughes]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZadCj8O1-0

This is one of the more educated talks on piracy figures. Basically speaking, numbers of pirated items are guesses, and even sales figures can be misconstrued to make these figures more dramatic.

The basic assumption that one pirated item equals one less item sold has not been proven, and in many ways is suspect from the get-go. And as the video explains, the RIAA and congress have determined that for every song pirated, there is a $150,000 USD loss to the economy. Yeah, no joke.

So, we see that copyright mathematics are simply imaginary. As for detecting piracy, that is another issue entirely. Often times, you can acquire real numbers as to how many times a particular torrent has been completed, but, many assume that there is a ration of discovered pirate torrents to undiscovered pirate torrents, and then extrapolate out from there, again giving us largely made-up numbers.