Jack Rascal said:
Every pirated copy is a lost sale. If you did not want the product in the first place, you would have not pirated it. For example I could not care less about CoD, I have no intention whatsoever in buying it, so why would I pirate a copy? I do not want to play the game. This is why piracy is hurting the industry, people pirate games they wish to play. That's my argument, not directed at you
I know this is a lost battle to explain why piracy is wrong... People have strong believes. Nothing I or anyone else here says can convince them otherwise.
Well, I was going to stay clear from this buuuuut... I guess I should try and tackle this one...
With all due respect, things just aren't this simple. Or so black and white for that matter.
I'll try to post my thoughts on how I think the bolded phrase above and below is not true in a respectful and concise manner.
Every pirated copy is a lost sale.
You see, for that to be true, that would mean that, if a person was unable to get a pirated copy, each one of those illegal downloads would turn into a sale. However, even though a certain number of those illegal donwloads would turn into a sale, we can safely bet that
not all those pirates would decide to buy the game if it wasn't available for free.
The big question is if that number of real "lost sales" is significant enough to pay off investing money in ways to prevent piracy. Most big publishers think "Yes it is", and then proceed to explore all kinds of avenues available for combating piracy. However, if the answer is "no" and that number of real "lost sales" is insignificant, then all these big companies are pouring down money on the wrong end...
That's the simple answer, I'll try to be more detailed below.
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The big problem of saying "every pirated copy is a lost sale" is that it is an absolute, and more often then not, absolutes may lead to falsehoods. For the above phrase to be true,
every-single-pirate would buy the game had it not been pirated - and with the numbers in the millions, it's very unlileky that -all- those people would follow the exact same course of action had they've been unable to download it illegaly.
Of course, the number of people who would buy the game could be greater (or even much greater) than those who would
still not buy the product, and if so, the
argument behind this phrase would remain plausible (piracy hurt sales).
However, since that number is unkwown, that phrase is incorrect and cannot be used to defend that argument.
As I understand you, you seem to think that phrase is true because one would only pirate something he wishes to play, but, while this phrase is evidently true, that does not mean that person would buy the game had he not pirated it.
Think for instance of the people in that number who pirated the game but
couldn't buy the game. This may seem absurd to americans but believe me, there are some places in the world where such games simply cannot be afforded to be bought by the average citizen. Evidently, that does not make "piracy right" - specially with so many good games out there available for free and the rising number of options for buying games at decent prices - but that still means that some of those people who pirated the game will not buy it later, simply because they can't.
That alone would mean that not every pirated copy = a sale. There are lot of other factors to take into account that would invalidate that thought, but let me try to explain things with a silly example.
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Suppose that, every day after your work, you walk back home and pass through a gallery of sweet vendors. In this gallery, there are approximately ten stalls selling different kind of sweets, each at 10$, even though the candies available are very different from each other. 10$ just happens to be your change every day - so you get used to buy some a candy on your way back home every day.
Now, what would happen if everyone of those candies were free? Well, if you like candies, you're probably going to eat a lot more than the original "10$-candy a day" that you otherwise would spend. You may try different sweets, somedays you'll eat less, somedays you'll eat more.
But if all the sweets returned to the 10$ price, you would return to your routine of spending your money in the stalls you like best. Perhaps you used to eat candy at the red stall when they were free, but now that the candys aren't free anymore, you'd rather spent your money in the blue stall with the candy you like best.
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In many ways, piracy follows the dynamics in the silly example above

.
A person that is used to pirate games will pirate every kind of game, certainly more than he is able to play or buy. If suddenly, piracy was stopped, that person would then spend his money on the titles he would think more deserving - and not in all the titles he would have pirated.
That means "pirated copies does not directly equals lost sales". Without some kind of "magical farseer", it's very difficult to know what number of those pirated copies represent truly lost sales. To makes things even more complicated, there is also the possibility that piracy can lead to better popularity and generate actual sales.
Using the example above, perhaps you never went to the yellow stall before candies were free because you thought their sweets wouldn't be so good. But then, after sampling their food in the "free period", you've grown to like them. Maybe you told your friend about the yellow stall. And then, when the candies went back to their usual price tag, perhaps you became an avid buyer of the yellow stall...
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So, no, we can't state that "piracy hurts sales" as if we had actual evidence of that. We don't. The ammount of study and "guessing the possibilites" to make an accurate and scientific research on the impact of piracy in the sales of games would be astonishingly expensive, and frankly, I think we fear the possible answers.
In most cases, piracy is wrong for ethical reasons - in the game industry, an entertainment industry, piracy simply isn't ethically justifiable. But we cannot state that piracy reduces sales in the digital enviroment without concrete evidence. It would be easier if one could concretly prove that - but as of now, it isn't. And that's why so many people refuse to see their actions as inherently wrong.