What I think and what I hope are two different things, in this case.
I hope the Xbox One fails. Because it represents all of the most backwards, money-grubbing irrational fears the gaming industry has toward its customers, all while showing zero respect for the people Microsoft expects to buy it.
Unfortunately, I think it's going to sell well. Not because of some nebulous "dudebro" demographic. Not because of screaming 12-year olds. Because of apathy. Sure, there will be people who buy it just because it's the new Xbox, and "Xbox rules, everything else sux!" That'll happen, and I won't be surprised if it's a fair amount of sales too. But other people are going to buy it because all of their friends bought it, because for the last eight years the Xbox has been the 'standard' for multi-player and cross-platform gaming, for some weird reason, so they're going to continue thinking that the Xbox One will hold the same standard. Other people are going to look at the 24-hour online check and think, "Well, I'm always online anyway, so it doesn't effect me!" and buy it. Because if it doesn't effect them, it's clearly not infringing on their rights as a consumer so why should they stand up for something on principle?
So yeah, I think it's going to sell well. And I think Microsoft knows that, which is why they're being so cocky and subsequently destroying their PR with sites such as this one, because they're going to see those week one sales and feel justified in all of the actions they've taken. And that makes me sad.