Well, the way I see it, AAA will stick with whatever is most popular. That means Win 7/8 for the moment, probably moving towards 8 as time goes by. So far that's what they did anyway. A lot of other devs will follow suit. Again, just as before. Maybe they'll linger on Win 7 for a while longer. Fair share of the rest will look towards multiplatform. We're seeing this now with indie devs and OS X ports. I'm not entirely sure, but I somehow doubt they'll be many non-Windows exclusive PC games (e.g. Linux- or Mac-only games). Some, perhaps, but unless Windows 8 is followed in a significant rise of the usage of other OSs, it's simply not much of a profit in developing for non-Windows systems - the market is smaller. On the other hand, I suspect there would be at least some shift towards Mac/Linux gaming, which is...good. I'll get to that in a moment.
So, all in all, I think things will continue as they are now, however there would be some increased interest in multiplatform releases.
Now, back into OS specific releases. Here are my suspicions and assumptions condensed: they would also pave the way towards multiplatform releases. Well, Linux-only games are pretty much a non-factor. A lot of games for Linux are ports, while game devs who work just make games for Linux are sensible enough to write portable code, so it ends up mostly multiplatform. However, if there are any major titles that come out for Linux only, I'd assume they'll behave the same way as Mac-only games, so I'll focus on those.
Mac-only games. Now, a lot of ports here, too (had a friend who worked on porting games for OS X, it's a legit business) and Steam is pushing towards multiplatform - Windows+OS X games. I am not sure if there are any Mac exclusive games, but here's what I think would happen to them.
Option A: a big game comes out for Mac only - a sequel to existing series (say, Assassin's Creed 4) or another highly anticipated game (say, whatever the equivalent of Dishonored in a few years is). Lots of gamers would be pissed and there would be a backlash. Most would demand multiplatform version, some would just act like spoiled brats (you know like any gamer backlash). It's generally not OK to tell the fans to "Just get a Mac", the entry barrier is too high for a lot of them. So, there is little chance of this happening and staying as it is.
Option B: some random game comes out for OS X only. No major thing. As long as the game isn't anything major. Well, there might be some quibble between Macfags and PC elitists (what each would call the other side) but whatever.
Option C: a Mac exclusive game comes out under the radar but suddenly grows in popularity. Some FarmCraftVille or whatever suddenly has legions of people rant and rave about it. Well, again, "just get a Mac" is too high of an entry barrier. The devs would be begged to port the game over to Windows. We saw this happen to Dark Souls, if nothing else, it would act as a precedent to try and make the devs do it (assuming they are unwilling to get showered with more money widen their market). So in the end, we reach the multiplatform conclusion again.
So, all in all, I think things will continue as they are now, however there would be some increased interest in multiplatform releases.
Now, back into OS specific releases. Here are my suspicions and assumptions condensed: they would also pave the way towards multiplatform releases. Well, Linux-only games are pretty much a non-factor. A lot of games for Linux are ports, while game devs who work just make games for Linux are sensible enough to write portable code, so it ends up mostly multiplatform. However, if there are any major titles that come out for Linux only, I'd assume they'll behave the same way as Mac-only games, so I'll focus on those.
Mac-only games. Now, a lot of ports here, too (had a friend who worked on porting games for OS X, it's a legit business) and Steam is pushing towards multiplatform - Windows+OS X games. I am not sure if there are any Mac exclusive games, but here's what I think would happen to them.
Option A: a big game comes out for Mac only - a sequel to existing series (say, Assassin's Creed 4) or another highly anticipated game (say, whatever the equivalent of Dishonored in a few years is). Lots of gamers would be pissed and there would be a backlash. Most would demand multiplatform version, some would just act like spoiled brats (you know like any gamer backlash). It's generally not OK to tell the fans to "Just get a Mac", the entry barrier is too high for a lot of them. So, there is little chance of this happening and staying as it is.
Option B: some random game comes out for OS X only. No major thing. As long as the game isn't anything major. Well, there might be some quibble between Macfags and PC elitists (what each would call the other side) but whatever.
Option C: a Mac exclusive game comes out under the radar but suddenly grows in popularity. Some FarmCraftVille or whatever suddenly has legions of people rant and rave about it. Well, again, "just get a Mac" is too high of an entry barrier. The devs would be begged to port the game over to Windows. We saw this happen to Dark Souls, if nothing else, it would act as a precedent to try and make the devs do it (assuming they are unwilling to get showered with more money widen their market). So in the end, we reach the multiplatform conclusion again.
