Serial Killer Round 63: La Fiesta de la Muerte! | C'est fini!

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Malbourne

Ari!
Sep 4, 2013
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@Dr. Thrax: Aw, man, that was so nice of you! You didn't even have to write a post but you did anyway. ;w;

I'll be sure to link it in the mother post!

@Frappe: Oh, two of my favorite videos on the title! At least I quality-tested to ensure this round was bug-free.
 

Malbourne

Ari!
Sep 4, 2013
1,183
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[HEADING=1]
ANOTHER PERSON HAS BEEN EXECUTED! WHO COULD IT BE THIS TIME?
[/HEADING]

Guessing is actually a feasible option at this juncture.
 

DoPo

"You're not cleared for that."
Jan 30, 2012
8,665
0
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Malbourne said:
Guessing is actually a feasible option at this juncture.
Aww, man, and I've been guessing all along. I must have been doing it wrong. Sorry, guys - my fault!

On the other hand - now it's a 20% chance to get it right! Well, assuming nobody votes for themselves.

On the other hand still, people voting for the right person while guessing (at 20% chance) is not that hight a chance. Erm, I'm stuck trying to calculate it, but it requires at least 3 of the 5 people to vote correctly with 20% probability. Umm, I'll get to you with the numbers when my brain starts working.

EDIT: Actually, the Lawyer is still alive. Which means that they'd also not vote for the Killer. So, that's actually 4 people who have to get at least 3 votes right at 20% probability.
 

DoPo

"You're not cleared for that."
Jan 30, 2012
8,665
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Uh, I'm coming up with 0.3125% I can't figute out if it's correct or not. Can anybody help? What I did was...well, actually model it like a die roll - it's more or less 4d5 with expected at least three 1s. Reasoning:

6 people are alive.
Each of them would vote, but not for themselves, so they each have 5 choices.
The Killer would never vote for himself, that leaves 5 voters.
The Lawyer would never vote for the Killer (or himself, but that's irrelevant) which leaves 4 voters.
Half of the total votes (so, 3) have to go to the Killer.

Which gives us 4d5 with expected at least three 1s (arbitrary number - it's as long as the numbers are the same, it's the same chance to vote for anybody).

The permutations that do have at least three 1s are

1, 1, 1, 1
1, 1, 1, 2
1, 1, 1, 3
1, 1, 1, 4
1, 1, 1, 5

...so 5 in total. The total permutations are 5[sup]4[/sup] = 625

When we subtract the correct permutations (where the majority of the votes are for the Killer), we get 620 permutations where the majority of the vote is NOT for the Killer.

Finally, dividing 1 by 620 gives us 0.003125 or 0.3125% but I'm not sure if I'm calculating it correctly.

EDIT: What the hell was I doing? That's wrong - it's very clearly wrong. 5 out of the 625 permutations are correct, so that's 5/625 = 0.008 = 0.8%
 

Fractral

Tentacle God
Feb 28, 2012
1,243
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@DoPo: Ah, maths. It's worth noting that if there is a tie in the voting then it's a dice roll to decide which of the tied gets executed, which complicates the probabilities substantially. In any case I doubt the distribution of the votes would be uniform or random, and this is where my already small enthusiasm for probability comes to and end.
 

DoPo

"You're not cleared for that."
Jan 30, 2012
8,665
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Fractral said:
It's worth noting that if there is a tie in the voting then it's a dice roll to decide which of the tied gets executed, which complicates the probabilities substantially.
Hence why I refrained from modelling it. Me brain dun seem to work anyway.

Well, at any rate, having a tie is not that hard, actually - if the Killer is smart, he and the Lawyer would vote for the same person[footnote]yeah, I might be giving them ideas, but whatever - they should have been doing it anyway[/footnote] - let's call them "the Scapegoat". So even if three people vote for the Killer, but the fourth one doesn't he has 1 in 4 chance for voting for the Scapegoat, which means a tie.

Fractral said:
In any case I doubt the distribution of the votes would be uniform or random
I know, I was just going off what it'd be if everybody was purely down to guesses.
 

Fractral

Tentacle God
Feb 28, 2012
1,243
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@DoPo: After seeing your post I started trying to model it seriously and then realized that I hadn't the faintest idea how to go about it. Not a good sign given that I have a probability exam in a few weeks time.
I really hope we got the killer this time, since if we didn't, I doubt we're going to win.
 

DoPo

"You're not cleared for that."
Jan 30, 2012
8,665
0
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Fractral said:
@DoPo: After seeing your post I started trying to model it seriously and then realized that I hadn't the faintest idea how to go about it. Not a good sign given that I have a probability exam in a few weeks time.
Well, yes, I'd agree - that's probably not a good sign.

:p

Fractral said:
I really hope we got the killer this time, since if we didn't, I doubt we're going to win.
Yeah - especially if the Entwined get executed this round, then it's pretty much impossible to win.
 

Malbourne

Ari!
Sep 4, 2013
1,183
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@DoPo, @sky14kemea, @Fractral: No matter how you slice it, the odds aren't good!

...Like, like probability odds.

...I can math.
 

Elementary - Dear Watson

RIP Eleuthera, I will miss you
Nov 9, 2010
2,980
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Caramel Frappe said:
DoPo said:
Wow! I haven't done maths is so long, except for estimating stuff, that I didn't even know where to start. I am of the personality type that trust instinct before finding the facts (in a surprising amount of cases this is a good thing) and I have been guessing through looking at posts and weighing it with other online activity...

The stats are damn interesting though!
 

Twintix

New member
Jun 28, 2014
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Well, all thing considered, this fiesta wasn't too bad. All the Mexican food I could pig out on, and tasty Mexican beer in spades? Kick-ass!

But...

I did not forget the reason I came here, the mission I was assigned.

A Killer was on the loose, and his destination had been found. My services were requested. Of course, I thought the whole thing was a joke at first. I mean, a murderer at the festival of the undead? What was the point in that?!
Well, to add to the zombies, I suppose. To distract myself, and to draw attention away from myself, I figured I'd let loose for a bit and have a bit of fun. Well, as much fun as you can have in a land where day never comes and corpses lie on the street to rot. Drink some beer, eat some food, let loose my hottest samba moves...the usual stuff.

And, of course, abide and wait until my chance arrived.

I saw somebody moving away from the hullabaloo of swinging zombies and hot salsa beats. I decided to follow the figure.

I'm not going to lie, my beer consumption had left me quite drunk. I did play it up a bit, though, for the sake of observing without seeming too keen. Keeping an eye out, I drunkenly wobbled after the figure.

He (or she, I don't remember too clearly) sat down under a tree, its' crown as black as the sky above us. I peeked around the tree and waved.

"Hey there, amigo!" I said. "We're not supposed to quite partying 'til dawn, you know? Though day never comes here..."

No response. To ease the atmosphere, I tried a joke:

"After all, it's called a fiesta, not a siesta. Right?" Hic.

Still no response. It seemed that my joke had fallen flat. I cleared my throat.

"Anyway, we shouldn't be alone here, what with the-" I started.

"Do you think that I am stupid?"

The sharpness of the voice startled me while the calmness deeply unsettled me.

"Lay it off." The figure continued. "I know you're not as drunk as you claim to be. I also know why you have come here."

I stared at the figure for a while in stunned silence.

"...Was I really that transparent?" I asked.

The figure nodded. I wrinkled my forehead and sighed.

"Well, so my secret's out, then." I said. "Well, in that case, would you mind sharing some information that would make my job easier?"

"How callous of you." The figure said, in a calm but angry tone. "All this loss of life, and you dare call it a job..."

"Miss Killer."

I was shocked. I thought that the figure had found out my identity, and here I was, being mistaken for the murderer! Things had already taken a sharp turn straight to Hell, and now they were speeding up. I was almost to stunned to respond.

"...What? You think I'm...No, I...That is..." I stammered.

"Don't waste your breath." The figure said, brandishing a knife. "You're too calm about all of this. Too carefree. And with a stupid hat like that and those stupidly large feet of yours, it can only be you. You've been voted for. No use trying to escape."

I look behind me. The few of us who were still left were quickly approaching. Even if I would've wanted to flee, it wouldn't have mattered. There was nowhere to go.

I sighed deeply.

"The voice of the people can be awfully cruel sometimes." I said. "And now I'm being executed..."

"...Well, on the plus side, I'll probably save you about thirty seconds."

The figure gave me a suspicious look.

"...What do you mean?" It said.

I smiled cheerfully at it.

"Well, you were kinda right. I did come here to kill somebody. But it seems that I was wrong about that somesody..."

"So I seem to have swallowed the cyanide pill prematurely~"

The silence struck down on everybody present, as my words sunk into their minds.

And, right on cue, the cyanide took effect.

Here's a fun fact; Nothing sobers you up faster than cyanide poisoning. Which sucks and you shouldn't try it, because you're also going to die. As I was coughing, almost puking, blood, I solemly thought about how useless I was in the end. No leads, no clues, no information. Nothing. I should've been able to do more, to protect the rest of them. And now they were possibly doomed.
My employers had told me that I'd die, but I'd at least die heroically. Bullshit. But hell, that didn't matter anymore; I was doomed to die from the start.

As the distant samba music, and the world, faded...I thought to myself one final thought:

Suicide missions fucking suck!

[HEADING=3]ARBITER: MISSION FAILED[/HEADING]​
You think we done goof'd when we executed DoPo? There's a real risk of y'all being thoroughly screwed now. But it might not have mattered in the end: I had absolutely zero leads.

I originally drew my death, but my scanner wanted to be an asshole tonight, so nothing came of it. Hopefully, this is satisfying enough.
 

DoPo

"You're not cleared for that."
Jan 30, 2012
8,665
0
0
Twintix said:
Well, all thing considered, this fiesta wasn't too bad. All the Mexican food I could pig out on, and tasty Mexican beer in spades? Kick-ass!

But...

I did not forget the reason I came here, the mission I was assigned.

A Killer was on the loose, and his destination had been found. My services were requested. Of course, I thought the whole thing was a joke at first. I mean, a murderer at the festival of the undead? What was the point in that?!
Well, to add to the zombies, I suppose. To distract myself, and to draw attention away from myself, I figured I'd let loose for a bit and have a bit of fun. Well, as much fun as you can have in a land where day never comes and corpses lie on the street to rot. Drink some beer, eat some food, let loose my hottest samba moves...the usual stuff.

And, of course, abide and wait until my chance arrived.

I saw somebody moving away from the hullabaloo of swinging zombies and hot salsa beats. I decided to follow the figure.

I'm not going to lie, my beer consumption had left me quite drunk. I did play it up a bit, though, for the sake of observing without seeming too keen. Keeping an eye out, I drunkenly wobbled after the figure.

He (or she, I don't remember too clearly) sat down under a tree, its' crown as black as the sky above us. I peeked around the tree and waved.

"Hey there, amigo!" I said. "We're not supposed to quite partying 'til dawn, you know? Though day never comes here..."

No response. To ease the atmosphere, I tried a joke:

"After all, it's called a fiesta, not a siesta. Right?" Hic.

Still no response. It seemed that my joke had fallen flat. I cleared my throat.

"Anyway, we shouldn't be alone here, what with the-" I started.

"Do you think that I am stupid?"

The sharpness of the voice startled me while the calmness deeply unsettled me.

"Lay it off." The figure continued. "I know you're not as drunk as you claim to be. I also know why you have come here."

I stared at the figure for a while in stunned silence.

"...Was I really that transparent?" I asked.

The figure nodded. I wrinkled my forehead and sighed.

"Well, so my secret's out, then." I said. "Well, in that case, would you mind sharing some information that would make my job easier?"

"How callous of you." The figure said, in a calm but angry tone. "All this loss of life, and you dare call it a job..."

"Miss Killer."

I was shocked. I thought that the figure had found out my identity, and here I was, being mistaken for the murderer! Things had already taken a sharp turn straight to Hell, and now they were speeding up. I was almost to stunned to respond.

"...What? You think I'm...No, I...That is..." I stammered.

"Don't waste your breath." The figure said, brandishing a knife. "You're too calm about all of this. Too carefree. And with a stupid hat like that and those stupidly large feet of yours, it can only be you. You've been voted for. No use trying to escape."

I look behind me. The few of us who were still left were quickly approaching. Even if I would've wanted to flee, it wouldn't have mattered. There was nowhere to go.

I sighed deeply.

"The voice of the people can be awfully cruel sometimes." I said. "And now I'm being executed..."

"...Well, on the plus side, I'll probably save you about thirty seconds."

The figure gave me a suspicious look.

"...What do you mean?" It said.

I smiled cheerfully at it.

"Well, you were kinda right. I did come here to kill somebody. But it seems that I was wrong about that somesody..."

"So I seem to have swallowed the cyanide pill prematurely~"

The silence struck down on everybody present, as my words sunk into their minds.

And, right on cue, the cyanide took effect.

Here's a fun fact; Nothing sobers you up faster than cyanide poisoning. Which sucks and you shouldn't try it, because you're also going to die. As I was coughing, almost puking, blood, I solemly thought about how useless I was in the end. No leads, no clues, no information. Nothing. I should've been able to do more, to protect the rest of them. And now they were possibly doomed.
My employers had told me that I'd die, but I'd at least die heroically. Bullshit. But hell, that didn't matter anymore; I was doomed to die from the start.

As the distant samba music, and the world, faded...I thought to myself one final thought:

Suicide missions fucking suck!

[HEADING=3]ARBITER: MISSION FAILED[/HEADING]​
You think we done goof'd when we executed DoPo? There's a real risk of y'all being thoroughly screwed now. But it might not have mattered in the end: I had absolutely zero leads.

I originally drew my death, but my scanner wanted to be an asshole tonight, so nothing came of it. Hopefully, this is satisfying enough.
Aww, too bad. Welp, come join us in the afterlife, now, I guess. I can offer you...umm, Eternal Damnation or Nothingness For All Eternity - take your pick.

In other news, the Killer has a really high chance of hitting two birds with one stone, in the face of the Entwined. And then, basically, the game is over.
 

FPLOON

Your #1 Source for the Dino Porn
Jul 10, 2013
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@DoPo: Well, considering the Lawyer's still alive, I say that stone's getting a promotion... and it's own theme song!
 

Dr. Thrax

New member
Dec 5, 2011
347
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DoPo said:
In other news, the Killer has a really high chance of hitting two birds with one stone, in the face of the Entwined. And then, basically, the game is over.
In reality, we should be worse off than we are now.
When Aero broke the rules, El Killer should have gotten 2 free kills.
 

Malbourne

Ari!
Sep 4, 2013
1,183
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0
@Twintix: Fun death post! Siesta/fiesta...I'm ashamed I couldn't think of that sooner. Have a trophy for Great Pun! And if your photocopier stops being a butt I'd love to see the picture!
 

FPLOON

Your #1 Source for the Dino Porn
Jul 10, 2013
12,531
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@Caramel Frappe: Is that before or after the Lawyer kicks the bucket?
 

Twintix

New member
Jun 28, 2014
1,023
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@Mal: [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/profiles/view/Malbourne] Well, I do so love to make stupid puns.

One time, I made a pun so atrociously bad that a classmate looked me square in the eye and professed his hatred for me. I'd love to share it, but it was in Swedish and I'm not sure if I can translate it.

(And yes, I'll try to scan the picture again later)