Serial Killer Round 70: Soviet Submarine Slaughter!

[Secondhand Revenant]

So basically the most specific a question the Spy asks the more likely they are to get information but the less useful that information normally is.

Yes, but going by the metric of number of suspects reduced, asking balanced question reduces the number of suspects the most, under the assumption that all suspects are equally suspicious and likely to be the killer. Continuing the previous example of 10 suspects:

If you ask about a trait only 10% of the users have the number of suspects is reduced by:
0.01 * 9 + 0.81 * 1 + 0.18 * 0 = 0.9 [footnote]The decimals are percentages of likelihood, so 0.01 is a 1% likelihood, and the whole numbers are measures of suspects reduced, so there is a 1% chance the number of suspects is reduced by 9, a 81% chance that the number of suspects is only reduced by 1 and a 18% chance that the number of suspects isn't reduced at all, leading to an average of 0.9 suspects less per question.[/footnote]

If you ask about a trait only 25% of the users have the number of suspects is reduced by:
0.0625 * 7.5 + 0.5625 * 2.5 + 0.375 * 0 = 1.875

If you ask about a trait 50% of the users have the number of suspects is reduced by:
0.5 * 5 + 0.5 * 0 = 2.5

So if we calculate this, we see that the most efficient manner of reducing the number of suspects is to ask questions with a 50/50 split.

Interestingly, the doppelgänger doesn't affect the decision-making process at all. So if we just look at the probabilities without taking the doppelgänger-effect into account.

If you ask about a trait only 10% of the users have the number of suspects is reduced by:
0.1 * 9 + 0.9 * 1 = 1.8

If you ask about a trait only 25% of the users have the number of suspects is reduced by:
0.1 * 9 + 0.9 * 1 = 3.75

If you ask about a trait 50% of the users have the number of suspects is reduced by:
0.5 * 5 + 0.5 * 5 = 5

As you can see, the Doppelgänger reduces the number of suspects the spy gets rid off by precisely 50%.[footnote]0.9*2=1.8, 1.875*2=3.75 and 2.5*2=5[/footnote] But this is quite intuitive, as he simply makes 50% of all questions ineffective.

What was rather unintuitive to me was the fact that this 50/50 split reduces the number of suspects more efficiently. My first theory was that the specificity of the spy's question wouldn't even have an impact, but after crunching the numbers, it doesn't look that way. And I'm pretty sure my math is correct. So my recommendation to spies would be to ask balanced questions, unless somebody finds a mistake here.

Mmm this assumes a yes answer has no value at all. If we were to get a yes answer to a list of 3 people, would it not be worth it to stab at them until either the doppelganger(who at the least doesn't want to vote helpfully) dies or a killer dies? On the other hand a yes answer to a list of 10 is worthless.

 

[FPLOON]

...In other words, "we" made the Spy's joj harder and, possibly, the Killer's joj easier by association...

Good thing I stuck with math-mapping Kingdom Hearts stats... especially in Re:Coded, which net me an A in AP Calculus...

 

[Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)]

do do do do, just driving the sub hoping not to get stabbed in the back.

(Finds letter under seat)

Was this?

(Opens the letter)

Hello Comrade! I just wanted to send you a fantastic offer and help spread the word!

Communism is doomed. I mean, let's face facts. One of our operatives is already busying themselves with the dreary task of capturing one of your lovely, archaic submarines for study over here in the good ol' land of Freedom and has already converted one of your supposedly loyal comrades to our agenda, while one of our sleeper agents has been inserted and will be disrupting your internal security measures for the foreseeable future.

But that doesn't have to be a problem! In fact, I've been authorized to offer some fantastic benefits for anybody else whom decides to defect. I mean, America is just so prosperous that I have so many games I've purchased that I haven't even bothered to count them, let alone try and redeem them or bother to know what their names are, so I worked out a way for everyone who signs up for team Freedom to share in my bounty.

All you have to do is let the little kitten know that you'd like to defect and we can all put this nasty business behind us. No more paranoia, no more doubt; all we'll have to do is oust whatever diehards remain on this vessel and it'll be clear sailing. With vote supremacy and having the Killer know who their allies are, your survival is almost guaranteed, as well as a stake in sure victory!

Use your first real vote to vote for Democracy.

(look at the letter)

Guys I think I found something

 

[TheMysteriousGX]

Well that's certainly a thing. Yeesh.

Although I think they used "whom" incorrectly. That's like, a million negative Internet points.

 

[Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)]

@altnameJag If we match this up with the others posts we could find out who the killer is.

 

[FPLOON]

@tf2godz: Meh... Probably nothing... Besides, I don't even recognize even half of those words used...

 

[Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)]

wait guys a thought just occurred to me. What if I wasn't the only one who got this letter?

 

[WhisperintheDeep]

You two have fun with that, it's past my bedtime.

"Early to bed, early to rise" and all that jazz.

 

[Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)]

You two have fun with that, it's past my bedtime.

"Early to bed, early to rise" and all that jazz.

it's you

Who are you?

[HEADING=1]TELL ME[/HEADING]

 

[Secondhand Revenant]

Hmmm. So if you guys check the moderation team chat he tells them he's a secondary account and not to worry. He mentions the talk of banjumpers. By doing this it seems to me that he identifies either himself or his lawyer as someone who even knows about that little fiasco.

There are 5 people(if I got them all please double check my work lol) who currently have joined the moderation chat.

Me
Jux
Caramel Frappe
crimson5pheonix
Aerosteam

Some of it spilled into the forums I believe so some others may know of it.

On the other hand this gives me some confidence that it isn't, say, Demagogue, Fat Hippo, Dying Jester, Crysan, or Armadox. Could be them if the other party made the account but seems less likely and all. They aren't in the chat and their post histories seem to suggest they stay out of the areas where things were going down

I still kind of suspect EvilRoy since I know I've seen him in other parts of the forums so he could have known from that... I kind of want to be sure before I move on from him because reasons did add up. On the other hand out of that list I most suspect crimson5pheonix. Been pretty quiet this game and he never reveals who he's after.

Edit: also when I checked everyone's profiles it said crimson was last logged in like 8 hours ago. Now, pretty soon after the weirdo leaves he's on. Not much to go off of but eh it was noticeable.

 

[crimson5pheonix]

Hmmm. So if you guys check the moderation team chat he tells them he's a secondary account and not to worry. He mentions the talk of banjumpers. By doing this it seems to me that he identifies either himself or his lawyer as someone who even knows about that little fiasco.

There are 5 people(if I got them all please double check my work lol) who currently have joined the moderation chat.

Me
Jux
Caramel Frappe
crimson5pheonix
Aerosteam

Some of it spilled into the forums I believe so some others may know of it.

On the other hand this gives me some confidence that it isn't, say, Demagogue, Fat Hippo, Dying Jester, Crysan, or Armadox. Could be them if the other party made the account but seems less likely and all. They aren't in the chat and their post histories seem to suggest they stay out of the areas where things were going down

I still kind of suspect EvilRoy since I know I've seen him in other parts of the forums so he could have known from that... I kind of want to be sure before I move on from him because reasons did add up. On the other hand out of that list I most suspect crimson5pheonix. Been pretty quiet this game and he never reveals who he's after.

Of course I don't reveal who I'm after, I never do until I'm dead. As to announcing in mod chat, I think more than a few people were aware of the chronic ban jumper(s).

 

[Secondhand Revenant]

Hmmm. So if you guys check the moderation team chat he tells them he's a secondary account and not to worry. He mentions the talk of banjumpers. By doing this it seems to me that he identifies either himself or his lawyer as someone who even knows about that little fiasco.

There are 5 people(if I got them all please double check my work lol) who currently have joined the moderation chat.

Me
Jux
Caramel Frappe
crimson5pheonix
Aerosteam

Some of it spilled into the forums I believe so some others may know of it.

On the other hand this gives me some confidence that it isn't, say, Demagogue, Fat Hippo, Dying Jester, Crysan, or Armadox. Could be them if the other party made the account but seems less likely and all. They aren't in the chat and their post histories seem to suggest they stay out of the areas where things were going down

I still kind of suspect EvilRoy since I know I've seen him in other parts of the forums so he could have known from that... I kind of want to be sure before I move on from him because reasons did add up. On the other hand out of that list I most suspect crimson5pheonix. Been pretty quiet this game and he never reveals who he's after.

Of course I don't reveal who I'm after, I never do until I'm dead. As to announcing in mod chat, I think more than a few people were aware of the chronic ban jumper(s).

Yeah but they specified talk. Most of the talk was in the mod chat. And some people seem to always lurk forum games or otherwise avoid the contentious topics the banjumper was in.

Also you logged in pretty quick to reply to this. When I looked at profiles to see who was in the mod chat group it told me you hadn't logged on for several hours. Then you appeared to reply to this it seems. Could be a coincidence but it is fairly late to log in. Which isn't odd in and of itself but rather the speed of the reply is when you weren't logged in too much earlier.

 

[Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)]

so this proves that I'm 100% trustworthy now or my still on the suspect list. Because if you know anything about my past writing you know I couldn't have written that.

I r baad at spelin

 

[crimson5pheonix]

Hmmm. So if you guys check the moderation team chat he tells them he's a secondary account and not to worry. He mentions the talk of banjumpers. By doing this it seems to me that he identifies either himself or his lawyer as someone who even knows about that little fiasco.

There are 5 people(if I got them all please double check my work lol) who currently have joined the moderation chat.

Me
Jux
Caramel Frappe
crimson5pheonix
Aerosteam

Some of it spilled into the forums I believe so some others may know of it.

On the other hand this gives me some confidence that it isn't, say, Demagogue, Fat Hippo, Dying Jester, Crysan, or Armadox. Could be them if the other party made the account but seems less likely and all. They aren't in the chat and their post histories seem to suggest they stay out of the areas where things were going down

I still kind of suspect EvilRoy since I know I've seen him in other parts of the forums so he could have known from that... I kind of want to be sure before I move on from him because reasons did add up. On the other hand out of that list I most suspect crimson5pheonix. Been pretty quiet this game and he never reveals who he's after.

Of course I don't reveal who I'm after, I never do until I'm dead. As to announcing in mod chat, I think more than a few people were aware of the chronic ban jumper(s).

Yeah but they specified talk. Most of the talk was in the mod chat. And some people seem to always lurk forum games or otherwise avoid the contentious topics the banjumper was in.

Also you logged in pretty quick to reply to this. When I looked at profiles to see who was in the mod chat group it told me you hadn't logged on for several hours. Then you appeared to reply to this it seems. Could be a coincidence but it is fairly late to log in. Which isn't odd in and of itself but rather the speed of the reply is when you weren't logged in too much earlier.

Oh definitely, the people who don't leave forum games may not know. But the banjumper(s) were on several parts of the site and the fact they were banjumpers was noted by several regulars who didn't normally post where the banjumpers did.

I suppose the timing is poor on my part, I just got home.

 

[Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)]

@crimson5pheonix @Secondhand Revenant: did I just single-handedly win this game?

 

[Secondhand Revenant]

Hmmm. So if you guys check the moderation team chat he tells them he's a secondary account and not to worry. He mentions the talk of banjumpers. By doing this it seems to me that he identifies either himself or his lawyer as someone who even knows about that little fiasco.

There are 5 people(if I got them all please double check my work lol) who currently have joined the moderation chat.

Me
Jux
Caramel Frappe
crimson5pheonix
Aerosteam

Some of it spilled into the forums I believe so some others may know of it.

On the other hand this gives me some confidence that it isn't, say, Demagogue, Fat Hippo, Dying Jester, Crysan, or Armadox. Could be them if the other party made the account but seems less likely and all. They aren't in the chat and their post histories seem to suggest they stay out of the areas where things were going down

I still kind of suspect EvilRoy since I know I've seen him in other parts of the forums so he could have known from that... I kind of want to be sure before I move on from him because reasons did add up. On the other hand out of that list I most suspect crimson5pheonix. Been pretty quiet this game and he never reveals who he's after.

Of course I don't reveal who I'm after, I never do until I'm dead. As to announcing in mod chat, I think more than a few people were aware of the chronic ban jumper(s).

Yeah but they specified talk. Most of the talk was in the mod chat. And some people seem to always lurk forum games or otherwise avoid the contentious topics the banjumper was in.

Also you logged in pretty quick to reply to this. When I looked at profiles to see who was in the mod chat group it told me you hadn't logged on for several hours. Then you appeared to reply to this it seems. Could be a coincidence but it is fairly late to log in. Which isn't odd in and of itself but rather the speed of the reply is when you weren't logged in too much earlier.

Oh definitely, the people who don't leave forum games may not know. But the banjumper(s) were on several parts of the site and the fact they were banjumpers was noted by several regulars who didn't normally post where the banjumpers did.

I suppose the timing is poor on my part, I just got home.

I don't often frequent news and featured content but when I do go on a spree I usually don't look beyond the main stuff so idk if he was there. I saw at least one person who only seemed to go there aside from forum games. Edit: also I don't think it was too common knowledge outside of the regular GGers and foes? I mostly saw them commenting on it and for anyone who looks at mod chat it was pretty unavoidable.

Well it could be coincidence but I'll admit I was already kind of suspicious of you generally seeming quiet and unobtrusive most of the time. It's just a bit hard to believe. Also your profile clearly states Texas where it's 2 AM. So you could have just got home at 2 AM but it looks a bit fishy...

 

[Secondhand Revenant]

@crimson5pheonix @Secondhand Revenant: did I just single-handedly win this game?

You mean by posting the message? I got one too. XD

 

[crimson5pheonix]

Hmmm. So if you guys check the moderation team chat he tells them he's a secondary account and not to worry. He mentions the talk of banjumpers. By doing this it seems to me that he identifies either himself or his lawyer as someone who even knows about that little fiasco.

There are 5 people(if I got them all please double check my work lol) who currently have joined the moderation chat.

Me
Jux
Caramel Frappe
crimson5pheonix
Aerosteam

Some of it spilled into the forums I believe so some others may know of it.

On the other hand this gives me some confidence that it isn't, say, Demagogue, Fat Hippo, Dying Jester, Crysan, or Armadox. Could be them if the other party made the account but seems less likely and all. They aren't in the chat and their post histories seem to suggest they stay out of the areas where things were going down

I still kind of suspect EvilRoy since I know I've seen him in other parts of the forums so he could have known from that... I kind of want to be sure before I move on from him because reasons did add up. On the other hand out of that list I most suspect crimson5pheonix. Been pretty quiet this game and he never reveals who he's after.

Of course I don't reveal who I'm after, I never do until I'm dead. As to announcing in mod chat, I think more than a few people were aware of the chronic ban jumper(s).

Yeah but they specified talk. Most of the talk was in the mod chat. And some people seem to always lurk forum games or otherwise avoid the contentious topics the banjumper was in.

Also you logged in pretty quick to reply to this. When I looked at profiles to see who was in the mod chat group it told me you hadn't logged on for several hours. Then you appeared to reply to this it seems. Could be a coincidence but it is fairly late to log in. Which isn't odd in and of itself but rather the speed of the reply is when you weren't logged in too much earlier.

Oh definitely, the people who don't leave forum games may not know. But the banjumper(s) were on several parts of the site and the fact they were banjumpers was noted by several regulars who didn't normally post where the banjumpers did.

I suppose the timing is poor on my part, I just got home.

I don't often frequent news and featured content but when I do go on a spree I usually don't look beyond the main stuff so idk if he was there. I saw at least one person who only seemed to go there aside from forum games.

Well it could be coincidence but I'll admit I was already kind of suspicious of you generally seeming quiet and unobtrusive most of the time. It's just a bit hard to believe. Also your profile clearly states Texas where it's 2 AM. So you could have just got home at 2 AM but it looks a bit fishy...

You may also notice that I almost never post before noon CST. There may be a connection there...

I'm also quiet every game when I'm alive...

 

[Secondhand Revenant]

Hmmm. So if you guys check the moderation team chat he tells them he's a secondary account and not to worry. He mentions the talk of banjumpers. By doing this it seems to me that he identifies either himself or his lawyer as someone who even knows about that little fiasco.

There are 5 people(if I got them all please double check my work lol) who currently have joined the moderation chat.

Me
Jux
Caramel Frappe
crimson5pheonix
Aerosteam

Some of it spilled into the forums I believe so some others may know of it.

On the other hand this gives me some confidence that it isn't, say, Demagogue, Fat Hippo, Dying Jester, Crysan, or Armadox. Could be them if the other party made the account but seems less likely and all. They aren't in the chat and their post histories seem to suggest they stay out of the areas where things were going down

I still kind of suspect EvilRoy since I know I've seen him in other parts of the forums so he could have known from that... I kind of want to be sure before I move on from him because reasons did add up. On the other hand out of that list I most suspect crimson5pheonix. Been pretty quiet this game and he never reveals who he's after.

Of course I don't reveal who I'm after, I never do until I'm dead. As to announcing in mod chat, I think more than a few people were aware of the chronic ban jumper(s).

Yeah but they specified talk. Most of the talk was in the mod chat. And some people seem to always lurk forum games or otherwise avoid the contentious topics the banjumper was in.

Also you logged in pretty quick to reply to this. When I looked at profiles to see who was in the mod chat group it told me you hadn't logged on for several hours. Then you appeared to reply to this it seems. Could be a coincidence but it is fairly late to log in. Which isn't odd in and of itself but rather the speed of the reply is when you weren't logged in too much earlier.

Oh definitely, the people who don't leave forum games may not know. But the banjumper(s) were on several parts of the site and the fact they were banjumpers was noted by several regulars who didn't normally post where the banjumpers did.

I suppose the timing is poor on my part, I just got home.

I don't often frequent news and featured content but when I do go on a spree I usually don't look beyond the main stuff so idk if he was there. I saw at least one person who only seemed to go there aside from forum games.

Well it could be coincidence but I'll admit I was already kind of suspicious of you generally seeming quiet and unobtrusive most of the time. It's just a bit hard to believe. Also your profile clearly states Texas where it's 2 AM. So you could have just got home at 2 AM but it looks a bit fishy...

You may also notice that I almost never post before noon CST. There may be a connection there...

I'm also quiet every game when I'm alive...

I had not in fact noticed that. Though that would make sense. It could also be explained by staying up late by choice as opposed to just getting home late.

Mmm not sure how quiet you are. Though I guess when it comes to finger pointing you usually are. And I suppose Jux is just as quiet and part of the mod chat too. Hmm.

Though if you die then you'll start talking more. (Okay not a real reason)

 

[Twintix]

@crimson5pheonix @Secondhand Revenant: did I just single-handedly win this game?

You mean by posting the message? I got one too. XD

Me too. I was even like "Waaaaait a minute, I don't recognize that username!".

So is it the Killer or the Lawyer?