Skyrim is probably going to get it just on the pure bases of extreme fan generated hype. I'm going to like it, but It will just be an improved version of Oblivion for me and not really deserving of many GOTY awards
I thought Battlefield 3 had a chance to pull an upset until I played the beta, that game didn't live up to the hype and many fans(mainly console players such as myself) of the franchise have dropped it. It will probably only receive token fps awards. It seems that IGN is already starting to have a change of heart.
MW3, lol
Portal 2, nope not gonna happen, that game has faded fast and wasn't able to live up to the first one in terms of popularity, I don't blame Valve though, it would be impossible to reproduce the same effect Portal had on people.
Saint's Row 3, looks really damn good, it will win a few awards. The game isn't being as hyped as other triple A games so it isn't going to sweep the competition. I look forward to playing it.
Arkham City, everybody seems to love this game, so this game is going to be mentioned a lot during the award ceremony, and has the best chance of beating Skyrim. I personally have no interest in it.
Deus Ex: HR, I loved that game but after I beat it, there was noting to do. The game is too confined to specific areas with little to do besides the story which sort of fell apart by the end. I enjoyed the conversation system a lot because you actually had to analyze the character and the situation to convince them to do things, Bioware take notes. It could definitely get the awards for its artistic direction.
Dark Souls, is my personal GOTY. The game is amazing atmosphere and has extremely deep gameplay. I bought it expecting nothing but ended up loving it. My only complaint is the advertising for the game, it definitely hurt sales and popularity for a game that many people would have ended up liking. Having the slogan be "You will die" is stupid, and would ultimately drive people away who might have liked the game. The slogan was in fact the only reason I was hesitant to buy the game. The game isn't very widely known but I hope that the game wins a few awards.