it was only a matter of time before i corrected, i should have said at least 3.The Goat Tsar said:
Which publisher could be next on the chopping block?
- Thread starter Saucycarpdog
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Well, you have to remember that THQ was in dire financial straits for quite a while before they finally went bust. Without knowing any numbers or anything, I'd be pretty comfortable betting on it being a little while before another big publishers hit the tubes like that. Based on the reports coming in, I'm surprised THQ lasted as long as they did. There aren't any companies that I can name off the top of my head that are hurting quite so badly.
As to who it's going to be when it finally does happen, that I can't say. EA seems to be the popular vote so far, but I think they've got enough to keep them floating, at least for a while. Yeah, they aren't doing much in the way of new IPs, but they've got a little bit of leeway with their currently established brands, so while they are going to need some fresh ideas sometime soon, I think for now they're okay.
If (or, perhaps more accurately, when) the modern military shooter bubble bursts, Activision are going to be in a lot of trouble, but again, I can't say whether that's going to happen anytime soon, and they might have enough going on to keep clinging to the black by the skin of their teeth, as it were. They're another company in dire need of some new ideas.
A couple of people have suggested Ubisoft, but I think that, with Watch Dogs (or is it one word?) on the horizon, there's a little bit of hope there. That title's a pretty big risk, but based on the reactions, it's very likely going to pay dividends. If they go the smart route, and back off the Assassin's Creed series for a while, now that Desmond's story arc has concluded, and put the money into some new and exciting titles, they'll be fine. But, like with Activision, if they plan on continuing to ride the Assassin's Creed franchise, then at some point down the road, possibly with the very next iteration, they are going to be in trouble.
Someone (or maybe more than one) mentioned Square-Enix, but while I know that their titles haven't necessarily being doing the best over here, I think (though I don't have the numbers to back anything up) that they're probably still pretty comfortable across the ocean. I'm fairly sure that they're still pretty highly regarded in Japan. But they have to drop their development times, or that arm of their business is going to be in trouble. And they have to stop announcing games six and seven years before they go into real development.
Capcom was also suggested, but, again, I think that, while North American fans might be getting pretty aggrieved with them, in Japan, they're still doing fairly well, (again again, no numbers to back up my claims, just vague assumptions based on conjecture). If not, honestly, they can just whip together another Street Fighter or Marvel vs. Capcom game, and they'd be fine. Throw more money behind Dragon's Dogma, maybe. Just stay away from, or completely restructure, Neverdead. And for the love of God, ease up on Resident Evil. Make it coherent, or something. At least make it psuedo-survival horror again.
Really, I think it all comes down to the plans the big publishers have for the next generation. If they aren't ready to adapt and change the market a little bit with the new consoles, and throw more than cursory support behind the PC audience, it's going to hurt them all. Who's gonna fall? I don't know. But I can bet it's gonna be spectacular.
As to who it's going to be when it finally does happen, that I can't say. EA seems to be the popular vote so far, but I think they've got enough to keep them floating, at least for a while. Yeah, they aren't doing much in the way of new IPs, but they've got a little bit of leeway with their currently established brands, so while they are going to need some fresh ideas sometime soon, I think for now they're okay.
If (or, perhaps more accurately, when) the modern military shooter bubble bursts, Activision are going to be in a lot of trouble, but again, I can't say whether that's going to happen anytime soon, and they might have enough going on to keep clinging to the black by the skin of their teeth, as it were. They're another company in dire need of some new ideas.
A couple of people have suggested Ubisoft, but I think that, with Watch Dogs (or is it one word?) on the horizon, there's a little bit of hope there. That title's a pretty big risk, but based on the reactions, it's very likely going to pay dividends. If they go the smart route, and back off the Assassin's Creed series for a while, now that Desmond's story arc has concluded, and put the money into some new and exciting titles, they'll be fine. But, like with Activision, if they plan on continuing to ride the Assassin's Creed franchise, then at some point down the road, possibly with the very next iteration, they are going to be in trouble.
Someone (or maybe more than one) mentioned Square-Enix, but while I know that their titles haven't necessarily being doing the best over here, I think (though I don't have the numbers to back anything up) that they're probably still pretty comfortable across the ocean. I'm fairly sure that they're still pretty highly regarded in Japan. But they have to drop their development times, or that arm of their business is going to be in trouble. And they have to stop announcing games six and seven years before they go into real development.
Capcom was also suggested, but, again, I think that, while North American fans might be getting pretty aggrieved with them, in Japan, they're still doing fairly well, (again again, no numbers to back up my claims, just vague assumptions based on conjecture). If not, honestly, they can just whip together another Street Fighter or Marvel vs. Capcom game, and they'd be fine. Throw more money behind Dragon's Dogma, maybe. Just stay away from, or completely restructure, Neverdead. And for the love of God, ease up on Resident Evil. Make it coherent, or something. At least make it psuedo-survival horror again.
Really, I think it all comes down to the plans the big publishers have for the next generation. If they aren't ready to adapt and change the market a little bit with the new consoles, and throw more than cursory support behind the PC audience, it's going to hurt them all. Who's gonna fall? I don't know. But I can bet it's gonna be spectacular.
Agreed that there aren't any developers in that same level of financial trouble as THQ. DmC did very poorly in japan, and capcom seems to be trying to appeal to a western audience. The problem of course is that they haven't been able to capture the western audience and by "westernizing" they begin alienating their Japanese audience. If the trend continues then they'll be left with no audience.SonOfMethuselah said:
I'm picturing Mass Effect, except everyone is a irredeemable twat and you can bone the entire crew instead of just your LIFelixG said:
OT: Another one for Ubisoft or Squeenix being next to go. Squeenix especially seems to not be in the greatest place right now, with the abject failure of FF14 and the widespread disappointment with 13. I would also say that while they certainly are not going anywhere as a whole, I could see Microsoft and Sony backing out of the video game industry if the next generation of consoles doesn't go more smoothly.
Sega is publishing Rome 2 Total War which is the only one off the top of my head, so I wouldn't say they don't have any huge games in the works.Saucycarpdog said:
I would say that EA deserves to be put out the most, however I wounder if they simply just are too big and have too much momentum to fail. It would be a bittersweet moment seeing as how they have soooo many people employed, it's unlikely that they would all be able to find employment elsewhere in the industry.
I'm tired of hearing people say EA should be shut down due to Mass Effect 3. Some of you may claim that's not the reason you say (want) them to be the next to go, but you're not fooling anyone.
Oh shit dude. Kinda doubt that'd actually happen but that could be awesome.FelixG said:
I reckon the DA and ME settings have a great framework for some very interesting stuff, but as they are, it just seems like whenever they try to do something cool or illustrate some sort of hard truth they tend to fall short of whatever they're trying to do or say. It feels like they don't quite manage to get the concepts, themes and whatnot that they develop fully across. That and the settings and their inhabitants (minus party members) didn't really strike me as being very...alive.
Can't say I ever got that impression from The Witcher 2.
EA will probably soon get the point where they'll gradually decline. Franchise milking, shady practices, lack of innovation or new IPs and a consumer base that hates you will ultimately do that.
Ubisoft has its flaws but it has enough cool shit in its pocket to, at this point, keep going for a while.
Activision are screwed when everyone gets bored of the current 'realistic' modern military shooter thing, though they doubtlessly has a fuckton of money by now. Whatever happens, I expect they'll try some massive big budget final effort before they go down which will mainly serve to be the final nail in the coffin more than anything else.SonOfMethuselah said:
It'll be like The Old Republic, times 10.
I can picture them trying to 'revitalize' the genre by getting IW to do some super big budget thing that falls flat on its arse. Maybe they'll inject a bunch of hip, cool 'new' ideas such as in depth character customization, a futuristic setting and moral choice systems into what is still essentially CoD 20: New Coat of Paint.
After we've gotten essentially the same thing from them for so long, it's hard to remember they were ever involved in anything else. Therefore I can't picture them effectively adapting.
THQ was an isolated case that was brought on by several huge mistakes after a history of low performance. As long as the rest of the publishers are smart about their business (i.e. [and unfortunately for most of you] more CoD and Battlefield), they won't be going anywhere.
Ubisoft is doing great stock-wise right now, which is a solid (albeit not the only) indicator for their health. I'm pretty sure their last couple of years netted good profits.MammothBlade said:
Square's been losing consumer and investor confidence, has a declining stock, isn't making anywhere near the money it made even a couple years ago, and even its lead franchise doesn't seem to be saving it.
I think Ubisoft's going to do fine in the short run, but Squeeeenix is a far bigger question mark.
Though I still wouldn't be shocked to see EA go down.
I know EA is having some trouble with it's stock prices, but I still think they are generating a profit, it's more of an investor confidence thing.
As far as some kind of THQesque total failure, I don't see that in the near future. They had been in major trouble for a long time.
The next console generation will be a big test for the remaining publishers, but we won't see that for a couple of years. Someone might have trouble in the transition. We'll see.
As far as some kind of THQesque total failure, I don't see that in the near future. They had been in major trouble for a long time.
The next console generation will be a big test for the remaining publishers, but we won't see that for a couple of years. Someone might have trouble in the transition. We'll see.
Popular opinion so far seems to be EA, but I am going to have to disagree. I don't think it will be the big names next on the block, but much more likely, it will be Funcom. Their stock prices are still below $2US (they were at almost $18 before The Secret World released) despite the almost 40% total sales increase on TSW. If the investors don't gain some faith back in Funcom they are doomed. They have already shut down all of their studios but one, and they cut their dev teams for their MMOs down to a quarter of their original size. Things already look pretty dire for them... The really sad part is that The Secret World is an amazing MMO and I am absolutely in love with it. I just wish more people would give it a shot. It is Buy to Play now instead of Pay to Play, so for the low price of around $25USD the game could be yours, in all of its juicy/puzzley goodness. (hint hint, please go buy this game so they can stay in business, at least until we've had our fill with TSW).
Unfortunately there is a kernel of truth to those claims that EA is performing poorly and it isn't due to ME3.Brotha Desmond said:
In December EA fell off the NASDAQ-100 list due to a 40% drop in it's share price due to The Old Republic's 'failure' in the eyes of investors to generate any major returns, let alone any profits the size World of Warcraft enjoys.
MOH: Warfighter was also considered another factor for the slump.
Considering that the NASDAQ and Activision have held steady for the last quarter, there is reason to be worried.
http://www.vg247.com/2012/12/17/ea-slips-from-nasdaq-100-list-following-share-drop/
Keep in mind that the whole Mass Effect 3 controversy gave them a major hit to their stock prices. Stocks reflect confidence in the market, and when news like that hits, investors get scared. And EA is most certainly worried about investors.Foolproof said:
It may be wishful thinking on their end, but it's not just wishful thinking. It's reality. EA's stock is still healthier than most, but it's also lost more than most publishers could afford to. Another hit like that could actually kill them, even if they have strong assets going.
They've had fiscal problems doing just that. We'll wait and see what happens with the Tomb Raider franchise, but I wouldn't assume.
Sega. They don't have console titles. They only have PC strategy games, which don't sell as well as we'd all like them to. They also have Sonic, but has that made any money in the past 10 years or so? Also, when was the last time you saw any Sega game being advertised? They have terrible marketing. Still, they did get Relic and the 40k license from THQ's collapse. If they play it safe and make Space Marine 2, they could stay afloat for a while.
EA is most definitely going to either crumble to dust or massively reconsider every one of their recent policies, but they have Battlefield and their sports games to last them for some time. EA will be feeling the pain soon...but not that soon. I'm betting on Sega to die first.
EA is most definitely going to either crumble to dust or massively reconsider every one of their recent policies, but they have Battlefield and their sports games to last them for some time. EA will be feeling the pain soon...but not that soon. I'm betting on Sega to die first.
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Square-Enix has nothing to worry about. Their RPGs sell like hot-cakes in Japan (and incidentally hot-cakes sell like crack in Japan for some reason), and they publish a lot of really successful games. Remember, Square Enix published Deus Ex Human Revolution and the Batman Arkham Asylum games recently. And that's not even to mention the fact that Square Enix also publishes hugely popular anime and manga in Japan.MammothBlade said:
While a lot of the games they've developed recently have been sub-par in a many ways, their development is really solid, and they're still making money hand over fist with multiple different markets.