It's a common misconception that the people in power or with the most wealth are more intelligent than the rest of us. Or even better than the rest of us.Oly J said:OurGloriousLeader said:I think you underestimate how irrational companies can be. As we've seen from various booms and busts, recessions, and bankruptcies, business can quite easily convince itself that past growth, equals future growth, and that potential custom, is predicted custom. So a company will look at Game 1 selling 2 million, Game 2 selling 5 million, and conclude that Game 3 will sell 10 million. It's the kind of gamble that leads to industries making terrible mistakes.
but...but that is just stupid...how are these people permitted to be in charge of anything?
5ilver said:You don't have to be smart or experienced to be in charge of people. All it takes is either:Oly J said:OurGloriousLeader said:I think you underestimate how irrational companies can be. As we've seen from various booms and busts, recessions, and bankruptcies, business can quite easily convince itself that past growth, equals future growth, and that potential custom, is predicted custom. So a company will look at Game 1 selling 2 million, Game 2 selling 5 million, and conclude that Game 3 will sell 10 million. It's the kind of gamble that leads to industries making terrible mistakes.
but...but that is just stupid...how are these people permitted to be in charge of anything?
1) Cash
2) Influence/ Connections
3) Luck (as seen with Notch)
Imagine that there is a triangle with one of these concepts at each point: Speed, Quality and Cost. Realistically, you can only have two at any given time. The video game industry has gone with fast and high quality, but that is extremely expensive. If they used a longer development time the costs would likely come down. All they've done is compound their financial problems by trying to shorten development times, coincidentally also contributing to market saturation which is part of the reason they feel the need to spend money equal to or greater than production costs on marketing. They're in a vicious circle of their own design.Greg White said:But therein lies a major problem. 2-4 years for a project that may or may not be good is, from a business standpoint, a horrible investment, and there have been major flops in the past for the industry to be wary of.
Look at Daikatana. Look at Too Human. Look at Colonial Marines.
I can hardly blame them after such grand flops as those.
That's pretty much why I refuse to feel sorry for a lot of 3rd party devs and publishers; they constantly whine and moan about budgets swelling and needing to sell millions upon millions when in fact A) said problems can be fixed, but they either are unaware of it or just outright refuse to acknowledge it and B) it's their fault their in that mess in the first place.shirkbot said:Imagine that there is a triangle with one of these concepts at each point: Speed, Quality and Cost. Realistically, you can only have two at any given time. The video game industry has gone with fast and high quality, but that is extremely expensive. If they used a longer development time the costs would likely come down. All they've done is compound their financial problems by trying to shorten development times, coincidentally also contributing to market saturation which is part of the reason they feel the need to spend money equal to or greater than production costs on marketing. They're in a vicious circle of their own design.
My thoughts on the matter are a whole lot of this. Huge ass budgets aren't necessary and it's the publisher/developer's fault of they can't make any money. I'm hoping the next gen is going to be better in terms of creativity and none of this over blown budget bull crap, because it seems like publishers are finally starting to realize that same old formula isn't going to work anymore and it'll be sink or swim if publishers like Ubisoft can't adapt. Unfortunately, I doubt the whole redirecting blame onto used games and piracy thing will go awayRyan Hughes said:However, the PS4 and WiiU, along with next-gen engines like FOX (and presumably Panta Rei, but who knows?), have taken steps to correct this by moving processes that were once handles exclusively by the CPU over to the GPU. This allows for mass-parallel processing, removing the need to program for every pixel. MS has been much tighter with the details of the Xbox One, so I cannot say for sure whether or not they have taken steps in the same manner.
The problem is that companies like EA, Activision and Ubisoft do not seem to recognize that development costs are a problem. I know that sounds strange, but considering how insular and complacent they have shown themselves to be, it is simply the truth. Also, the high-risk / high-reward nature of the last generation has benefited their companies greatly, so why bother to change?
The leaders in the drive to lower dev costs are mid-tier Japanese developers and indies, like Unity and OpenGL/OpenCL. So, who knows what we will see in the next gen? The truth of the matter is that Activision and Ubisoft, despite their sales, are on very thin ice. Ubi -prior to FY2013- was 90 million Euros in the red over a three-year total, and only just recouped that. Activision is still 61% owned by Vivendi, a company that is now leaching off of their profits and yet could still go bankrupt.
I could go on, but hopefully this give you a fuller picture of the state of the industry. If you want more info, I talk about this at length during this podcast: http://gamebuddyfuncast.podomatic.com/entry/2013-01-22T13_43_32-08_00
According to Reuters, Vivendi is trying to leech about $400m USD or 325m Euros off of Activision per year -depending on profits- and is seems that they are going to be able to do so. Even with today's ridiculously bloated costs, that is still the dev cost of about 40 good games per year. So, yeah things are not looking good for Activision, especially because of two things: WoW subscriptions are falling again, and their new MMO is pushed back to 2016. Also, CoD and Destiny are expensive titles, and could very well end up competing against one another in an over-saturated shooter market.Aiddon said:Heck, it's actually looking like Vivendi could drive Acti into debt with what's currently going on. You'd think after dramatic collapses like THQ (who also BADLY managed themselves in general) and 38 Studios (who folded after ONE game) publishers would stop this BS and crack down on bloated budgets, but they're blissfully unaware. It would literally take a giant like Acti, EA, Take Two, or Ubisoft collapsing in order for anyone to finally wake up.
As for Japan, they seem to be more interested in taking a slower, more methodical approach. Atlus has developed all of TWO games for the PS3 and 360 (Catherine and Persona 4 Arena), instead getting mileage out of the PS2 as they could and making stuff for handhelds such as the PSP and the DS line. Even guys like CAPCOM and Namco (who still make big AAA titles) do smaller stuff on handhelds or just B-tier games in general. Nintendo is also the same way with their franchises hitting a LOT Of different genres and audiences. Japanese devs aren't as dramatic or glamorous in their approaches, but they're being smarter.
This is why I've noticed that these losses, constant push for power, constant priority of graphics and spectacle over gameplay, and overly bloated budgets are a uniquely Western thing. CAPCOM has had all of ONE extravagant game with a huge team and bloated budget and that was Resident Evil 6 (the only other one that came close was the attempted DMC reboot, though that was too quickly forgotten for anyone to care). Atlus, Nintendo, Namco, and a ton of other publishers from Japan take these slowly because the risks aren't worth it. Western pubs and devs waste money CONSTANTLY and keep demanding for bigger and bigger budgets.Ryan Hughes said:According to Reuters, Vivendi is trying to leech about $400m USD or 325m Euros off of Activision per year -depending on profits- and is seems that they are going to be able to do so. Even with today's ridiculously bloated costs, that is still the dev cost of about 40 good games per year. So, yeah things are not looking good for Activision, especially because of two things: WoW subscriptions are falling again, and their new MMO is pushed back to 2016. Also, CoD and Destiny are expensive titles, and could very well end up competing against one another in an over-saturated shooter market.
Konami -despite some terrible screw-ups by its western employees, like Silent Hill HD- has played it smart as well; after MGS4, they circled the wagons in Japan and began working on their own proprietary engine, only developing for mobile, and smaller, mostly handheld titles. Most people see the company as fading after being one of the top 5 publishers in the early PS2 era, but the reality is that at no point have they lost any money this generation, even after the Nikkei crash and after the Tsunami. This as opposed to Ubisoft and EA, who have both posted massive losses at times.
Atlus as played things very smart as well, more or less sitting this generation out while making enough to keep afloat. Bamco has branched out a bit, but kept their initial development costs in check. Also, Bamco and Konami show the advantage of having diverse products, as both companies make much more than video games, as opposed to Square and Capcom.
In any event, we will see where things go from here, but I am convinced there will be a shake-up in the market this coming generation.
And have a concept people want to invest in. Which is A LOT harder than it sounds. Don't mind me, I'm just going to be laughing in the corner to myself.MammothBlade said:There is no "we, the gamer". Different people want different things from games.Greg White said:High end graphics, multiplayer, story, sound, all of that costs money to be top-of-the-line, and this isn't even including the marketing costs, which REALLY hurt some game's final budget, like Tomb Raider.
As to how it got to this point...we, the gamer, demanded bigger and better and these companies are trying to deliver.
I for one don't feel like splashing out so much for so little in terms of gameplay and content. Tomb Raider looks good, but I don't like spending £30-40 when I know it's only ~10-15 hours in playtime despite being the price of 8+ cinema tickets (£6 each) which could easily give me 16+ hours of enjoyment. Or the price of 3-4 novels (£9.99 each) which give me weeks of enjoyment.
A lot of marketing costs are rubbish, since all you need is a trailer and a website, even just a youtube account, and the internet will literally do the marketing for you. That's one way to look at it.
Yeap, and yet somehow, my direct experience is not as valued as some random person's ignorance on the subject. It boggles the mind. Gotta love the arm-chair game developers - of course one would think you can make it cost less, but you have no idea how much work is involved.kiri2tsubasa said:Sad thing is this, so few here really understand the business of making a game. I'm not in the field, yet my B.S. was in Business Management, so I would like to think that I have an idea on how expensive making games can be (not just making the game, but other elements like taxes and whatnot). Memory serves, you do work in the industry (don't remember which part) so you would have better understanding of costs associated with this.
Yeah, I realise. Marketing creates an illusion that people want, no, NEED a product or service. And so, you need your fancy marketing teams with massive budgets, but really, correct me if I'm wrong, a lot of games are sold by word of mouth, snowballing, viral marketing, it seems that some traditional outlets have become quite redundant. If something is interesting enough, especially a sequelised, popular franchise, then it should be able to stand up with minimal marketing, shouldn't it? Or perhaps these saturation campaigns are a prestige thing.MrHide-Patten said:And have a concept people want to invest in. Which is A LOT harder than it sounds. Don't mind me, I'm just going to be laughing in the corner to myself.MammothBlade said:There is no "we, the gamer". Different people want different things from games.Greg White said:High end graphics, multiplayer, story, sound, all of that costs money to be top-of-the-line, and this isn't even including the marketing costs, which REALLY hurt some game's final budget, like Tomb Raider.
As to how it got to this point...we, the gamer, demanded bigger and better and these companies are trying to deliver.
I for one don't feel like splashing out so much for so little in terms of gameplay and content. Tomb Raider looks good, but I don't like spending £30-40 when I know it's only ~10-15 hours in playtime despite being the price of 8+ cinema tickets (£6 each) which could easily give me 16+ hours of enjoyment. Or the price of 3-4 novels (£9.99 each) which give me weeks of enjoyment.
A lot of marketing costs are rubbish, since all you need is a trailer and a website, even just a youtube account, and the internet will literally do the marketing for you. That's one way to look at it.
Maybe the AAA branded games, but unless your are Notch or Tim Schafer, you are screwed in the Indie Department. People always talk about the concepts or stories and how the AAA industry is crap on those grounds, yet countless Indie games end up dead in the water.MammothBlade said:Yeah, I realise. Marketing creates an illusion that people want, no, NEED a product or service. And so, you need your fancy marketing teams with massive budgets, but really, correct me if I'm wrong, a lot of games are sold by word of mouth, snowballing, viral marketing, it seems that some traditional outlets have become quite redundant. If something is interesting enough, especially a sequelised, popular franchise, then it should be able to stand up with minimal marketing, shouldn't it? Or perhaps these saturation campaigns are a prestige thing.MrHide-Patten said:And have a concept people want to invest in. Which is A LOT harder than it sounds. Don't mind me, I'm just going to be laughing in the corner to myself.MammothBlade said:There is no "we, the gamer". Different people want different things from games.Greg White said:High end graphics, multiplayer, story, sound, all of that costs money to be top-of-the-line, and this isn't even including the marketing costs, which REALLY hurt some game's final budget, like Tomb Raider.
As to how it got to this point...we, the gamer, demanded bigger and better and these companies are trying to deliver.
I for one don't feel like splashing out so much for so little in terms of gameplay and content. Tomb Raider looks good, but I don't like spending £30-40 when I know it's only ~10-15 hours in playtime despite being the price of 8+ cinema tickets (£6 each) which could easily give me 16+ hours of enjoyment. Or the price of 3-4 novels (£9.99 each) which give me weeks of enjoyment.
A lot of marketing costs are rubbish, since all you need is a trailer and a website, even just a youtube account, and the internet will literally do the marketing for you. That's one way to look at it.
Extra Credits had a video discussing this whole scenario, and as a previous poster posted, so does Jim Sterling. From what I gathered from both of them the Triple A big guns such as EA, Square Enix, Capcom, etc. all spend normal amounts on the making of the game, but then go off and spend HUGE amounts on advertising the game. The problem however is that gaming is still relatively a niche, there are still many people who don't play video games and have no interest in them and find other ways to go about their days. So basically, you've got companies pushing to get everyone to buy their product, but there is just not enough people who currently play gaming to really make back the money they've spent. There's also the whole thing that most Triple A games have an MA15+ rating, thus negating a portion of gamers from actually buying their game.Oly J said:snip