Why the (near) future of TV/movies is -not- streaming or all digital

[Eri]

Maybe a couple times per month I end up coming across a forum thread (not necessarily this website) or post that says something along the lines of Blu-Ray will never replace DVD because streaming is the future. I see posts asking when DVD will be completely replaced by Blu and they get people telling them the same thing. And they proceed to say how great streaming is and how it will happen soon.

No. No it won't.

There's tons of reasons, so I'll just touch on the obvious.

1. Physical ownership. People love being able to touch what they own. Hard copies provide solid evidence this item is yours and it can't be killed by a hardrive crash or DRM. It also looks good on a shelf.

2. Lack of digital space. Your "amazing" computer might have a huge 1-2 TB hardrive, but that is hardly the norm. Go outside your group of friends and you'll see how small people's actually are. While space might get cheaper and cheaper, that still doesn't stop the average Joe from not upgrading and/or generally not caring.

3. Accessibility. Right now, Stick disc in slot, Movie plays, Profit. With some type of digital storage device it will not be that simple (as of now). You might have to set up accounts, manage your HD space as to not run out, know how to transfer files if you need a bigger one. Tons more things make this more hassle than is (currently) worth it to the general population.

4. Shitty ISPs. While storage might get cheaper, if anything, Internet prices have gone up. While they have gone up, our data cap hasn't kept up. There are many places in the USA and other countries where you can get unlimited internet, for maybe a not so terrible price. But there are equally more where they get price gouged out the ass and have TERRIBLE data caps. God help you if you go over.

This article right here says 56% of Americans have data caps. That's just USA. http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/news/2011/05/56-of-americans-have-internet-data-caps-fcc-asked-to-investigate.ars

This next one goes under USA, Canada, UK, and Australia. http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/news/2011/04/how-internet-users-are-disciplined-around-the-world.ars Data caps and money gouging up the ass.

Also, where is this speed? Not only is the whole situation shitty, but we aren't even going fast while having to put up with the ridiculous crap.

This point can just about be filed under accessibility, it's just one more thing people have to worry about.

5. Quality. How much streaming quality can one really afford when they have slow, expensive, and data capped internet? You sure as hell aren't going to be downloading BD quality movies with that kind of service. Especially not on a daily basis. Should we downgrade? I sure don't want to have an all future of streaming DVD quality movies and television when BD is so clearly superior. What kind of future would that be anyway? Downgrading.

That's just 5 reasons I came up off the top of my head and there are many more, many more details and reasons why an all digital future is not near us. It's just not viable.

/rant off

 

[KingsGambit_v1legacy]

The world of entertainment and media has changed since the Internet gained popularity a mere decade or so ago. Combined with technological advances, the way we consume media is also very different. Your points 1 and 4 are true. 2, 3 and 5 are not.

For 2, digital space can and in the case of Youtube, iPlayer and iTunes for example does mean the cloud which is working just fine. And portable devices (apart from iCrap) include 3g connections and memory card expansion slots. For 3, the fact people are willing to use iTunes, Facebook and XBox Live indicates that setting up accounts and managing information and data is not a big problem if the "payoff" is worth it. For 5, I would gladly watch a 1000kbps XVid, DivX or MPG4 video without complaint and can rarely discern the difference between one and an MPEG2 DVD. 1080p is a different matter, but as that can be just as easily encoded and transferred via the Net it is the same.

A decade ago our phones were monochrome and ADSL was just starting to be rolled out. Since then we now have the ability to watch and share video and audio on demand, on the go at varying price points. Youtube is free, iTunes costs. But it is absolutely undeniable that Youtube, iPlayer and iTunes have fundamentally changed the way we consume media. Steam has similarly done the same thing for PC gaming. The Net has caused no end of grief to traditional print media like magazines and newspapers.

I have many games on Steam and have no trouble with using the service. I like it because it's more convenient and easier to use than less-legal methods, I don't need to wait for the post or queue in a shop (if they have what I want available) or mess about with physical media. The argument that the CD is superior to MP3 may be true for audiophiles, but for the remaining 90%+ of the population, we cannot tell the difference and getting music online is easier, faster, more convenient and offers a wider, more immediate choice. I can get a song immediately on Spotify or iTunes at any time of day or night and without having to travel anywhere.

I haven't watched TV traditionally in years. I watch almost ALL my TV (very little I will admit) via internet downloads. I have not had to worry about global release dates, waiting for a show to start, missing a part because I had to leave the room or wondering where the disc is for YEARS. That is not true for everyone...my parents still watch it live though Hard drive recording and pausing live TV is helping. But the fact is I and many others are used to being able to watch what we want, when we want and on the device we want.

As iTunes did for music, so should TV shows. They are missing out on high revenue streams. The old model of global rights and release dates is cold and dead and the execs are still clinging to its clammy, rigor mortis infected fingers. Our broadband speeds are higher now, our phones are smart multimedia devices, our living rooms are Net-connected and digital photos, music and video are as good as or better than their physical and/or analogue counterparts. The Internet is huge and a part of many people's lives, is here to stay and it's never going to become insignificant or go away.

 

[3AM]

Move a few times and you'll learn that physical ownership is a drag. And heavy. And expensive. I don't want another box of books or DVD's or cd's to move. I want to move a couple big ass hard drives, safely wrapped and protected.

ISPs can and do suck now but they've got to get better. Technology gets better all the time. The problem I see is that the telecommunications companies want way too much money for their service. Didn't the UN say access to the Internet was a human right? I do believe that the time will come where it will be seen as such and governments will realize that's what our taxes are for, to pay for broadband for everyone, free wireless everywhere.

I know, it's a dream world I just described but we all have our beliefs and dreams. That's mine. That, and less heavy boxes to move.

 

[aarontg]

Another thing allot of people seem to neglect is the fact that there are people out there that only have so much time every month. I use the internet allot for research, surfing, and gaming and I have to keep that within sixty gigs every month. So I always prefer to just get a physical dvd or game rather than crossing my fingers that I don't go over after a large download or long stream. Ya netflix and steam are fantastic services but I can't use them regularly or I have to pay more on my service bill.

 

[4RM3D]

Whether we like it or not, streaming is the future. I'll will go even further than movies; even games will be streamed. Why? Because corporates believe is the solution to the root of all evil*: piracy. Yes, mostly because of that single reason; to counter piracy. For movies it might be possible to create a hack to download the movie while streaming. But for games, its gonna be nearly impossible.

Not that I am liking this development.

(*That is not my opinion about piracy, btw)

 

[4RM3D]

I have many games on Steam and have no trouble with using the service. I like it because it's more convenient and easier to use than less-legal methods, I don't need to wait for the post or queue in a shop (if they have what I want available) or mess about with physical media.

True, but I kinda need a physical medium to get the feeling I own the media (game, movie, music). Having a digital download is more practical but also less satisfying. And I can't put a digital download in my DVD case to be displayed like a kind of collector's fetish.

I haven't watched TV traditionally in years. I watch almost ALL my TV (very little I will admit) via internet downloads. I have not had to worry about global release dates, waiting for a show to start, missing a part because I had to leave the room or wondering where the disc is for YEARS. That is not true for everyone...

Same here.

 

[Eri]

Whether we like it or not, streaming is the future.

I'm sure at some undetermined future point it will all be digital, but not anytime soon. Which is why I was careful to say near.

 

[4RM3D]

I'm sure at some undetermined future point it will all be digital, but not anytime soon. Which is why I was careful to say near.

...

... it will all be digital ...

Like "Tron" digital? Or like "The Matrix" digital?

Oh wait, wrong topic. XD

 

[MASTACHIEFPWN]

Yeah, replacing a simple concept with making the 70% of Americans who don't even know what is inside their computer have to upgrade- Not good for the movie industry. It only worked with PC games because we were experenced with the stuff before hand. We knew what we needed to do, but the rest...

And speed for it sucks. So does my internet's general speed. I'd hate to tack on another thirty minuites to a movie just for it to buffer.

 

[KingsGambit_v1legacy]

Computer hardware moves exponentially faster than improvements in internet connection technology, which isn't subject to the same laws of scale that silicon-based hardware is. I think that the OP's post sums up things rather nicely - I agree.

Even if it doesn't happen officially it will happen unofficially as it already does. If the industry don't adapt to the realities of the Internet they are losing out on potential income, it really is that simple. It is a potential profit making system but because of global TV rights it isn't very straightforward to implement. However millions upon millions of people can and do share films and TV shows via Bit Torrent, Rapidshare and other P2P and online services and the industry don't get a penny for it.

Whether or not you agree the Internet is a reality, smartphones that play video on the go are a reality and there are already many on-demand video services around (YouTube being foremost among them). A particular person may not have the bandwidth, the hard drive space, "tech know how", patience, desire or monthly data allowance to do so, but many millions around the world do.

To illustrate, I am a HUGE Futurama fan; it's my favourite TV show bar none. Brand new episodes will air in the US in 5 days time but I live in the UK. If Fox or anyone believes for a second I will wait for those episodes to air on british TV potentially months or even years later (if at all) when there is an alternative available that means I don't have to, then they are very naive and quite mistaken. Two things I can 100% guarantee...It will be on Bit Torrent/P2P networks hours after it airs on TV and it will be on my hard drive minutes after that.

If Fox/Comedy Central were smart, they would have a way to make money from it by offering a high quality streaming or download service (even with reasonable DRM). Steam offers games legally, conveniently and on demand; I have over 300 in my library. I have disposable income and am happy to spend it on things that I enjoy and find entertaining. I like to "reward" the companies for making things I like and "punish" the ones who do not by not buying their product (it hasn't worked for Call of Duty yet sadly :-\ ) If Fox gave me the chance to buy the episodes legally, when I want, to watch how I want, I would pay them for it. However instead production houses stick to the traditional sell-to-TV-channels-funded-by-advertising model.

If legal streaming/download services don't happen, it will be because of this model and the complications of moving from it or adapting it to the new age. The music industry dragged their heels for YEARS, chasing P2P networks like Napster and Limewire, suing the hell out of grandmas and 7 year olds. Then Apple made iTunes and as much as I dislike Apple products and the brand, iTunes revolutionised the industry by offering a legal digital distribution platform that worked. Music and games have both succeeded and benefitted in a massive way and the movie and TV industries are still fighting it, to their detriment. P2P, Usenet and torrenting can never be taken away...the only choice the industry has is to adapt or lose out.

 

[4RM3D]

To illustrate, I am a HUGE Futurama fan; it's my favourite TV show bar none. Brand new episodes will air in the US in 5 days time but I live in the UK. If Fox or anyone believes for a second I will wait for those episodes to air on british TV potentially months or even years later (if at all) when there is an alternative available that means I don't have to, then they are very naive and quite mistaken. Two things I can 100% guarantee...It will be on Bit Torrent/P2P networks hours after it airs on TV and it will be on my hard drive minutes after that.

I have said the exact same thing in another thread. I feel the same way.

 

[Busdriver580]

My problem with it is that the pricing model for streaming will inevitably end up being, "an infinite amount of your money forever". And I swear this generation is stupid enough to let them get away with it.

12$/mo to stream Netflix is fine, but in the future I'll end up paying similar fee's to stream music, and games on my Pc and consoles, and seriously, fuck that, that's gonna add up

 

[Yotta Flare]

I live in Lewistown MT USA (not the most tech savvy on the planet) but I do have a 10mbs/.5mbs internet connection and with it I have managed to get buy with out a bluray player, hell I dont even have a dedicated dvd or cd player. I have had no reason to pick up any physical media for years, the only discs I own are xbox games because I subscribe to gamefly and select to "Keep" games for a fairly discounted price. Between Netflix, itunes, xbox live, youtube, and various web sites that put there tv shows online after they have already aired I am able to have all the video entertainment I want. As far as Videogames go I have some games downloaded from xbox live but it is typically easier for me to just buy them threw gamefly, due to price, and on the pc I just use gamestop download now. In my opinion digital media is here and it is effective enough that I could reasonably recommend my friends and family to pass on a blu ray. Im sure bluray is not going anywhere for a long time but it seems unlikely that we will have any other new physical media to put movies or games on.

 

[Eri]

I live in Lewistown MT USA (not the most tech savvy on the planet) but I do have a 10mbs/.5mbs internet connection and with it I have managed to get buy with out a bluray player, hell I dont even have a dedicated dvd or cd player. I have had no reason to pick up any physical media for years, the only discs I own are xbox games because I subscribe to gamefly and select to "Keep" games for a fairly discounted price. Between Netflix, itunes, xbox live, youtube, and various web sites that put there tv shows online after they have already aired I am able to have all the video entertainment I want. As far as Videogames go I have some games downloaded from xbox live but it is typically easier for me to just buy them threw gamefly, due to price, and on the pc I just use gamestop download now. In my opinion digital media is here and it is effective enough that I could reasonably recommend my friends and family to pass on a blu ray. Im sure bluray is not going anywhere for a long time but it seems unlikely that we will have any other new physical media to put movies or games on.

It seems to me the only reason you have "gotten by" is because you're one of those who doesn't really care in the first place, because otherwise you'd see how superior BD is to current streaming capabilities as well in regards to DVD quality.

 

[KingsGambit_v1legacy]

It seems to me the only reason you have "gotten by" is because you're one of those who doesn't really care in the first place, because otherwise you'd see how superior BD is to current streaming capabilities as well in regards to DVD quality.

BD is undoubtedly technically superior to DVD and given the choice of one over the other and the ability to play both it would be BD for just that reason. However it is not superior enough compared to DVD (and certainly not to the extent that DVD was to VHS) to the majority of people (even the technically discerning) to justify either buying them or equipment to play them especially, or to change the attitude toward streaming/downloading.

When digital cameras first came about a little over a decade ago, they were huge, had terrible battery life and the image quality was appalling. Not a scratch on the standard 35mm prints. However the convenience and lack of costs for developing/printing far and away outweighed the above negatives. They've long since equalled 35mm quality and now you will not find many people (apart from a handful of traditionalists, pros, nostalgics and teachers) who use film.

Just as digital photography has done to print and iTunes did to CD single sales, so too did DVD do to VHS. No rewinding, no loss of quality over time, less physical space, higher quality image and rightly or wrongly, the ease with which they can be copied superceeded the tape. All BD has done is up the quality a bit, that is it. 3D is a gimmick and not worth mentioning even if it does take off and become more popular. The truth is that I for one and many more besides don't care enough about the additional quality of BD.

The convenience of being able to transfer DVD quality digital video over the Net far outweighs any benefits from HD. And even then HD can also be downloaded (the number of hi def Matroska MKV files around the Net attest to that) and streamed (Youtube even offers 1080 streaming). As I mentioned way up top, a 1000kbps XVid is more than good enough to enjoy a film or TV show (almost on par with DVD) and the convenience of being able to watch it anywhere and whenever/however one likes, to obtain it at any time of day without DRM, region checks, etc is preferrable for millions in the digital age.

Knowing the industry, just as with DVD and Blu Ray, chances are it will be the adult entertainment industry that will push things forward. Once those kinds of movies are sold and/or streamed digitally for profit with a robust, reliable delivery platform, Hollywood and TV studios may well follow suit. Every technology the adult industry has championed has gone on to succeed and become the norm.

 

[Eri]

snip

I'm not so sure either way. More and more people are buying huge flat screens and it would make sense eventually they'll notice "oh, the picture on this is alot crappier than I remember" when using DVD or basic cable. If they don't care that much, I do wonder why they are bothering with huge HD sets.

 

[SL33TBL1ND]

The data about Australia there is really out of date.