Will the Switch fail?
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I would be shocked if it succeeded but I am open enough to realize that I could be wrong. Kind of a....65 Fail 35 Succeed Split in my mind.
It's less powerful than what's already out there and the Tablet thing is too big to be portable on its own. You'll get the usual Nintendo Fans who will buy it but I'd be absolutely shocked if it got any traction with the general masses.
If this thing replaces the 3DS as some are expecting it to, I'm likely done with Nintendo (if that portable device won't fit in my pocket, I have no interest in it) but that would probably help boost the sales to make it more successful. I do wonder how that would affect overall sales; are there more people like me that would abandon Nintendo if they did that or are there more people who would buy the Switch to replace their 3DS?
It's less powerful than what's already out there and the Tablet thing is too big to be portable on its own. You'll get the usual Nintendo Fans who will buy it but I'd be absolutely shocked if it got any traction with the general masses.
If this thing replaces the 3DS as some are expecting it to, I'm likely done with Nintendo (if that portable device won't fit in my pocket, I have no interest in it) but that would probably help boost the sales to make it more successful. I do wonder how that would affect overall sales; are there more people like me that would abandon Nintendo if they did that or are there more people who would buy the Switch to replace their 3DS?
*shrug* I'd never have predicted the explosion of the Wii, so I'm not equipped to think I'd be a good judge of this new one.
It has a tough fight ahead of it on it's home turf, though. Consoles in japan are starting to die out in favor of phones, to the point where even AAA releases are only making initial domestic shipments of one million copies, less than games just a few years ago were expected to sell altogether in their openings.
As for abroad... I dunno. Nintendo has a diehard fandom, and still has a greater degree of cultural penetration than its rivals, as far as being a name even people who don't know thing one about videogames associates with videogames. (For instance, my grandma, to this day, refers to my PS1 as my 'nintendo) Granted, here in america Xbox is starting to usurp it even in that category, but if its gimmick is catchy enough I could see it doing alright.
I'm not big on nintendo's IPs, and doubt third party support is going to get any better, but as always with consoles, if they manage to release five games I want on the system, then I'll buy it. The Wii U failed that test, only releasing two, but maybe this one will pass.
It has a tough fight ahead of it on it's home turf, though. Consoles in japan are starting to die out in favor of phones, to the point where even AAA releases are only making initial domestic shipments of one million copies, less than games just a few years ago were expected to sell altogether in their openings.
As for abroad... I dunno. Nintendo has a diehard fandom, and still has a greater degree of cultural penetration than its rivals, as far as being a name even people who don't know thing one about videogames associates with videogames. (For instance, my grandma, to this day, refers to my PS1 as my 'nintendo) Granted, here in america Xbox is starting to usurp it even in that category, but if its gimmick is catchy enough I could see it doing alright.
I'm not big on nintendo's IPs, and doubt third party support is going to get any better, but as always with consoles, if they manage to release five games I want on the system, then I'll buy it. The Wii U failed that test, only releasing two, but maybe this one will pass.
Unless it somehow manages to grasp the mainstream's attention in some way I don't see it doing too well. It certainly won't be as succesful as the PS4 and probably not even the Xbox One.
It's going to less powerful again, meaning third-parties won't bother too much if at all with it... again. I mean, by the time it's out it'll probably be at the same price as the PS4 Slim. That's not a good position to be in.
If they're able to release some fresh, stand-out titles it can at least make its mark with the hardcore crowd. But the Wii-U utterly failed at that, and even the Wii wasn't that great.
The one thing they shouldn't do is market this thing as 'Look, it can play Skyrim'. This when the sytem is less powerful than current gen consoles, and on which a remastered of version of said game was just released.
We'll see. Anything can happen, I guess.
It's going to less powerful again, meaning third-parties won't bother too much if at all with it... again. I mean, by the time it's out it'll probably be at the same price as the PS4 Slim. That's not a good position to be in.
If they're able to release some fresh, stand-out titles it can at least make its mark with the hardcore crowd. But the Wii-U utterly failed at that, and even the Wii wasn't that great.
The one thing they shouldn't do is market this thing as 'Look, it can play Skyrim'. This when the sytem is less powerful than current gen consoles, and on which a remastered of version of said game was just released.
We'll see. Anything can happen, I guess.
Given how we know next to nothing about the game lineup (because a good game library is far more important than system specs) I'd say it's too early to tell.
Hard to tell. It's an interesting experiment, but it remains to be seen whether that will translate into commercial success. No one expected the Wii to take off like it did, so anything is possible, I guess. That said, the market now is not the same one from back then.
I very much doubt a rerelease of a 5+ year old game is going to make the masses line up en masse to buy a Switch.nomotog said:
Pretty much this. There seems to be a good Zelda game in the making and ehm... Wait, let me google this:Neverhoodian said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Nintendo_Switch_games
That is a pretty short list. I hope nintendo has some plans to make it longer fast.
As others have said, depends 100% on the games being released.
Zelda stands to get it a reasonable amount of attention... But its also available for the WiiU so that's going to cannibalise sales.
If Ninty were smart, they'd have an unannounced Mario game, Mario Kart, and some variant of party game available on it at launch, alongside some third party titles, with exclusive releases of some of their franchises that haven't seen true love in a while. That'd get the thing moving.
If it sits around for a year or 2 without any major games though... Its going to be the WiiU all over again, which is a shame as it can be nice to see the industry try something at least a little new.
Zelda stands to get it a reasonable amount of attention... But its also available for the WiiU so that's going to cannibalise sales.
If Ninty were smart, they'd have an unannounced Mario game, Mario Kart, and some variant of party game available on it at launch, alongside some third party titles, with exclusive releases of some of their franchises that haven't seen true love in a while. That'd get the thing moving.
If it sits around for a year or 2 without any major games though... Its going to be the WiiU all over again, which is a shame as it can be nice to see the industry try something at least a little new.
It has a lot more chance on success than the WiiU considering Nintendo atleast learned it's lesson that lack of third party support is what led the WiiU to it's early grave(that and not rebranding the console). I don't know to what extent Nintendo is involved with third parties behind the scenes but if they manage to seal exclusive deals(similarly like with Capcom during the Gamecube days) instead of just downgraded ports then I'll definitely be interested in the Switch. This could be Nintendo's big push to stay relevant in the console business which is a promising prospect.
The thing that diminishes my excitement somewhat is that it appears to be another gimmick system. Like the console can be separated from it's docking station and then games can be played on it's tablet but the console is still significantly more powerful when placed on it's docking station. Now how does this even work: developing games that need to be functional in two separate modes? On the outset I'd say similarly like the WiiU this is architecture that chases away third parties but considering they are already affiliated with the Switch this doesn't seem to be the case.
So yeah, Nintendo certainly has the potential to make their new console great again. I hope for another Gamecube situation but with higher sales potential. That is one of my favorite systems; it had an incredibly strong first party line-up and some exceptionally good third party exclusives(not that they stayed exclusive but still
).
The thing that diminishes my excitement somewhat is that it appears to be another gimmick system. Like the console can be separated from it's docking station and then games can be played on it's tablet but the console is still significantly more powerful when placed on it's docking station. Now how does this even work: developing games that need to be functional in two separate modes? On the outset I'd say similarly like the WiiU this is architecture that chases away third parties but considering they are already affiliated with the Switch this doesn't seem to be the case.
So yeah, Nintendo certainly has the potential to make their new console great again. I hope for another Gamecube situation but with higher sales potential. That is one of my favorite systems; it had an incredibly strong first party line-up and some exceptionally good third party exclusives(not that they stayed exclusive but still
).
Well the gameboy was successful, the gameboy advance was successful, the DS was successful and the 3DS was successful. So a simple regression will tell you that, yup it'll be successful. Nintendo console have always been successful based on nintendo IP, now all there new games will be on one device so that should help it quite a bit. It won't do wii number but it'll easily beat the wii U and probably will do around xbox one number.
I think it is gimmicky enough to explode in popularity the first few years (optimistically) like the Wii, but with the specs it supposedly has, it will die off in a couple of years. Again, like the Wii.
Wether intentional or unintentional the Wii stayed massively popular with 'casual' audiences though(housewives, kids, elderly homes etc) and the motion controls gimmick was actually the strength of the console which itself was just a souped up Gamecube. In a way I think the runaway success of the original Wii is holding Nintendo back b/c it wants to appeal to everyone without alienating any specific demographic. Like with the WiiU they thought to capitalize on the popularity of the Wii by giving it almost the same name and people will buy it. That never happened. Nintendo doesn't want to compete with Sony or MS but at the same time the 'casual' audience of 2007 seems to have mostly moved on to smartphones and tablets. Who exactly did they make the Switch for? Kids and families or people who play Skyrim? I guess it will remain a mystery until they announce some games for the system.Bob_McMillan said:
I do not think it will take off like the Wii did and I think chasing that is a dream Nintendo should let go of.
The Wii succeeded in large part due to the fact people could play bowling and golf with their friends in their house. The switch won't
have that same mass appeal.
The Wii succeeded in large part due to the fact people could play bowling and golf with their friends in their house. The switch won't
have that same mass appeal.
I predict the Switch will fail in the same way that every Nintendo console since the NES has failed.
Which is how long Nintendo's been dying, if you listen to nerds on the Internet.
EDIT: [/sarcasm]
Which is how long Nintendo's been dying, if you listen to nerds on the Internet.
EDIT: [/sarcasm]
I honestly hope it fails. I want to see Nintendo drop out of the hardware market.
Honestly, I see no possibility for the Switch to succeed. Nintendo hasn't been good since the N64-GCN days.
Honestly, I see no possibility for the Switch to succeed. Nintendo hasn't been good since the N64-GCN days.
Magic 8-Ball says "Signs do not look good, but who the hell knows?".
Honestly I've been shocked by how long and how (relatively, they have had some pretty bad numbers the last few years) well Ninty has managed to limp along on thrice-recycled nostalgia with a side order of gimmick.
The big question to me is who the hell this thing is targeting. What we know of the specs so far are unimpressive at best, not even close to high-end tablets in either CPU/GPU or display. The battery life is a big and very worrisome unknown, in fact the sheer number of unknowns this close to expected launch is at best puzzling, at worst worrying. I just don't see it going over all that well in the US and even the "They're targeting the Japanese!" argument seems kind of weak to me. Last I was in Japan -- granted, it's been a year or so -- most everyone had a tablet and/or second phone (most people have these weird flip phones as their 'main' phone, but also carry an iPhone/iPad or similar for gaming and such). Are they going to replace those with a Switch? I dunno, maybe, but it doesn't seem all that likely. Then again, I don't recall seeing all that many 3DS' when I was in Japan. Oddly, what I do recall seeing a lot of were PSPs, but quite possibly that was just because I don't think I've ever seen anyone with one in the US, especially not after the Vita replaced them, so seeing them a few times in the wild really stuck out.
As an aside, I don't tend to think the "Gameboy/GBC/DS/3DS were successes so this will be" argument really holds a lot of weight. In large measure those all succeeded as much by being substantially cheaper than the then generally superior but far more expensive alternatives (Lynx, Game Gear, PSP, Vita, et al) as much as on their own respective merits (granted, I say this as someone who owned most of the aforementioned alternatives and am still salty by their respective untimely deaths). We don't know for sure what The Switch is going to cost, but it ain't gonna be cheap and it's unlikely Ninty will discontinue the 3DS just so The Switch doesn't have it to compete with.
Edit: And in this instance by 'compete' I mean somewhat indirectly. Ninty products tend to target a younger demographic, meaning that in many instances the devices are being bought by parents, grandparents, and such, often people who have little knowledge or interest in gaming. An example of this I witnessed in a Target not long after the WiiU released. A woman was talking to a clerk looking to buy a Wii for her kid. The clerk tried endlessly to get her to understand that, given the games she was mentioned that her kid wanted to play, it was the WiiU she wanted. Didn't matter. Wii was in the name, Wii was cheaper than WiiU, Wii it was. It came down to price and the device/name seeming, at least to her, "Close enough".
Now for all I know her kid threw a fit when she came home with a Wii and she returned and exchanged it for a WiiU, but I suspect a lot of Wiis were purchased instead of WiiUs based on price and similarity of name alone. When people disinterested in gaming (or, worse, people who see video games as a waste of time, bad influence, whatever) are purchasing a device for a kid there's going to be a lot of price sensitivity.
While Ninty's name and IPs certainly played a major role, I suspect the success of the Gameboy line had as much to do with it's general relative cheapness (up until the 3DS release, and remember the ocean of tears over that?) compared to the competition as anything else.
So basically what I'm saying is that if the main appeal of The Switch is portability (and I can't see what else it would be, it's going to be extremely limited as a home console) and if, as expected, it's substantially more expensive than the 3DS, I suspect that alone could be even more disastrous for its chances of long term success than the inevitable confusion in the Wii vs WiiU naming.
Honestly I've been shocked by how long and how (relatively, they have had some pretty bad numbers the last few years) well Ninty has managed to limp along on thrice-recycled nostalgia with a side order of gimmick.
The big question to me is who the hell this thing is targeting. What we know of the specs so far are unimpressive at best, not even close to high-end tablets in either CPU/GPU or display. The battery life is a big and very worrisome unknown, in fact the sheer number of unknowns this close to expected launch is at best puzzling, at worst worrying. I just don't see it going over all that well in the US and even the "They're targeting the Japanese!" argument seems kind of weak to me. Last I was in Japan -- granted, it's been a year or so -- most everyone had a tablet and/or second phone (most people have these weird flip phones as their 'main' phone, but also carry an iPhone/iPad or similar for gaming and such). Are they going to replace those with a Switch? I dunno, maybe, but it doesn't seem all that likely. Then again, I don't recall seeing all that many 3DS' when I was in Japan. Oddly, what I do recall seeing a lot of were PSPs, but quite possibly that was just because I don't think I've ever seen anyone with one in the US, especially not after the Vita replaced them, so seeing them a few times in the wild really stuck out.
As an aside, I don't tend to think the "Gameboy/GBC/DS/3DS were successes so this will be" argument really holds a lot of weight. In large measure those all succeeded as much by being substantially cheaper than the then generally superior but far more expensive alternatives (Lynx, Game Gear, PSP, Vita, et al) as much as on their own respective merits (granted, I say this as someone who owned most of the aforementioned alternatives and am still salty by their respective untimely deaths). We don't know for sure what The Switch is going to cost, but it ain't gonna be cheap and it's unlikely Ninty will discontinue the 3DS just so The Switch doesn't have it to compete with.
Edit: And in this instance by 'compete' I mean somewhat indirectly. Ninty products tend to target a younger demographic, meaning that in many instances the devices are being bought by parents, grandparents, and such, often people who have little knowledge or interest in gaming. An example of this I witnessed in a Target not long after the WiiU released. A woman was talking to a clerk looking to buy a Wii for her kid. The clerk tried endlessly to get her to understand that, given the games she was mentioned that her kid wanted to play, it was the WiiU she wanted. Didn't matter. Wii was in the name, Wii was cheaper than WiiU, Wii it was. It came down to price and the device/name seeming, at least to her, "Close enough".
Now for all I know her kid threw a fit when she came home with a Wii and she returned and exchanged it for a WiiU, but I suspect a lot of Wiis were purchased instead of WiiUs based on price and similarity of name alone. When people disinterested in gaming (or, worse, people who see video games as a waste of time, bad influence, whatever) are purchasing a device for a kid there's going to be a lot of price sensitivity.
While Ninty's name and IPs certainly played a major role, I suspect the success of the Gameboy line had as much to do with it's general relative cheapness (up until the 3DS release, and remember the ocean of tears over that?) compared to the competition as anything else.
So basically what I'm saying is that if the main appeal of The Switch is portability (and I can't see what else it would be, it's going to be extremely limited as a home console) and if, as expected, it's substantially more expensive than the 3DS, I suspect that alone could be even more disastrous for its chances of long term success than the inevitable confusion in the Wii vs WiiU naming.