migo said:
I have no doubt that the PS3 will last long into the lifespan of the PS4. The PS3 took longer to get going than the PS2, but from the beginning the only thing anyone could complain about is that it was too expensive and had too few games. It's now down to the PS2's launch price, is getting a mid-gen boost with Move, has a ton of exclusive games as well as all the multi platform ones and has the greatest longevity thanks to not having hardware failure issues and actually having next gen support.
The Wii is fizzing out, and will need a reboot in the next 1 - 2 years, and that will just be to keep up with where the PS3 is now. The Xbox 360 is slowly but steadily losing people to the PS3 as they're tired of having to replace it for the 4th time. I've bought quite a few accessories and games off ex-360 users. That will only continue, and eventually it'll just fizzle out. When people stop playing 360 and Wii, they'll still be playing the PS3. It's not going to be the same dominating juggernaught from start to finish that the PS2 was, but in the long run it'll be the closest thing, and it'll be something like the PS1.
Also, if Sony gets their shit together the PS4 will be built on the same Cell architecture, just more powerful, and it'll get PS3 backwards compatibility while launching at a lower price than the PS3 did, they'll do another repeat of the PS2.
The thing is, the 360 sales figures are artificially inflated because people often bought 2 360s, one for Live and one for pirated games, and then on top of that would buy another one to replace it after hardware failure. If you look at Live accounts vs PSN accounts, they're already about at parity. You also have plenty of people defecting from 360 to PS3 while hardly anyone goes the other way. In the long run the PS3 will win over the 360.
Now for the Wii, it hardly gets played. A lot of people bought them, or were given them as gifts, but they just don't get played, and nobody's excited about the Wii anymore, I've seen Wiis on the shelves of local drugstores where they used to be unable to keep them in stock just sitting there for months with nobody buying them. People have largely stopped buying the Wii, and at some point since Nintendo makes money off hardware sales, they'll need to release a Wii HD, giving the PS3 the potential to outsell the Wii thanks to being on the market twice as long (after all, part of the reason for the PS2's dominance is it was on the market from 2000 and is still running, while the GameCube was on from 2001 to 2006 and the Xbox from 2001 to 2005 and the DreamCast from 1999 to 2001, it's easy to sell so much more when you've been around so much longer). It won't be the same as the PS2, yeah, but the PS3 can pull another PS1.
They're no longer in a position to completely dominate the market like they did with the PlayStation 2. At the end of June, the PS3 was almost up to the level of the 360 with only 3 million units separating them, but that's worldwide figures. The North American market is where the most PS2s have been sold, yet 10 million more 360's have been sold than PS3's. And then we have the Wii which is another 10 million in front of the 360 in NA, putting it just under 10 million consoles short of cracking the total amount of PS2s sold there.
I think it'd be great if Sony could pull another PS2, but I don't think it's possible any longer. Regardless of all the problems and setbacks they have suffered, the Xbox and Wii have gained enough support that it's impossible for any one console to dominate the market again. Microsoft's next console will sell in huge numbers, as will Nintendo's next machine that they release.