CrazyHaircut94 said:
We were showed that one Monty Hall problem. And I didn't get it. Why the fuck would you switch door, the only door you know anything about is the opened one with a goat, how does that have anything to do with your knowledge of the others, the odds are 50/50 after they were 1/3!
I'll try to explain this simply (the picture in the OP helps)
When you first pick a door, the odds of getting the car are 1 out of 3, so the odds are essentialy 2/3 that you have picked a goat at the start.
Then he opens one door and eliminates a goat, this means either the one you have chosen has the car or the last remaining door. But we already know that you're most likely sitting on a goat (2/3), which means it's most likely the car is in the other door. By switching you change the more to likely option (2/3).
If it helps imagine the scenario with 100 doors, one with a car, 99 with goats. You pick one its most likely a goat, then he eliminates 98 goats, leaving the last remaining door to be most likely a goat. It's unlikely to get the car on the first guess,