You're 100% correct, but no one can understand that

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Red Right Hand

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Feb 23, 2009
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Georgie_Leech said:
TheLoveRat said:
CrazyHaircut94 said:
We were showed that one Monty Hall problem in school. And I didn't get it. Why the fuck would you switch door, the only door you know anything about is the opened one with a goat, how does that have anything to do with your knowledge of the others, the odds are 50/50 after they were 1/3!
See thats what I think, but I just cannot see why you even take the already opened door into question. You can't switch to that so that just leaves you with two doors which you know nothing about. Therefore the odds must be a 1/2 as you only have two doors, meaning only two options.
When you guess which door has a car, you had a 2/3 chance of choosing wrong. thay one of the doors that you didn't choose was opened, it doesn't magically change the probability that you were wrong. The chance that the car was in one of the two doors was 2/3, and now one of those doors is gone, so the chance that it was behind the closed door that you didn't pick is still 2/3. The only way it would revert to 50/50 odds is if you were turned around and they switched the objects around a few times behind the doors.
Yeah man I just edited it saying that I understood it now. Thanks for the explanation though.
 

LostTimeLady

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Dec 17, 2009
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This example might sound highly petty but:
One day a friend of mine and myself were chatting and my friend desided to insist that there weren't crenellations (things that looked like battlements) on top of the local church (it may have been churches in general). This boiled my blood not only because I knew she was wrong as the church did have crenellations but also that she was wrong about crenellations being a sign of WEAKNESS on a biulding. (If you look up about battlements you'll find a very good reason why they were the shape they were!). (P.S. I will humbily accept defeat if some can conclusively prove that crenelations were considered a sign of weakness (not that they were a fundimentatly flawed design, that's a different matter)).
Petty I know, but maddening enough that I recall the conversation now.

As an aside, the Monty Hall problem is unfortuately a good way to cause an argument if people don't accept the fact that the maths is what it is. I'm sure there's many similar problems etc out there that cause similar arguments when people don't accept the fact.
 

GreyWolf257

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Oct 1, 2009
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This one girl that I know insisted that Hitler was Russian, when everyone knows he is German. She also argued with me saying there is no such thing as a Five Star General in the U.S Army, even though it says it right here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_star_general
 

LostintheWick

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Sep 29, 2009
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AkJay said:
This is a REAL argument I had with someone. I swear to your God that I wish I was lying:

(I live on the North-East Coast of the U.S.A)

Girl: "The Moon is closer to us than Florida"
Me: "No it isn't"
Girl: "Yes it is! I can see the Moon, it's there, and I cannot see Florida, so it's simple logic that the Moon is closer."
Me in the middle of face-palming: "The Moon is thousands of miles away, Florida is in our country, We can drive to Florida in a few hours or one day at the most. It took a spaceship with rocket propulsion 3 days, and trust me, those rockets are going a lot faster than 65 MPH."
Girl: "Whatever, you're full of shit."
This is awesome. Made me feel two completely separate things at once! I'm happy that this girl exist. She is funny. This same girl also makes me mad that such obvious truths can still be disputed by the stupid.
 

GreyWolf257

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Sebenko said:
GreyWolf257 said:
This one girl that I know insisted that Hitler was Russian, when everyone knows he is German.
He was actually Austrian.
No, he was born Austrian, but he was a German. That would explain why he was the dictator of Germany. :0

It is sort of like someone being born in France and moving to America: you don't call them French, you call them American... actually, it is exactly like that.
 

WolfThomas

Man must have a code.
Dec 21, 2007
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Burningsok said:
Plz don't continue on from this... no need for a flame war, but I think they would be more respected if they would just sit there and listing to the guy supporting evolution, and then explain to all the evolution believers why evolution is wrong. Walking out of it just proves they are arrogant, and that they are ignorant of the whole theory. I would like to see them explain to the class and the guy explaining evolution why they think it's wrong
Sorry about that, I broke my established rules of no religon/politics. I consider myself a christian but I'm also a firm believer in evolution, and it frustrates me that faith and science is so incompatible, I guess I've just got a flexible mindset.
 

Sebenko

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Dec 23, 2008
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GreyWolf257 said:
Sebenko said:
GreyWolf257 said:
This one girl that I know insisted that Hitler was Russian, when everyone knows he is German.
He was actually Austrian.
No, he was born Austrian, but he was a German. That would explain why he was the dictator of Germany. :0

It is sort of like someone being born in France and moving to America: you don't call them French, you call them American... actually, it is exactly like that.
Once French, always French.

Unless they were born in the UK and moved somewhere else, then they're a traitor. Or a hero who started the invasion early.
 

antipunt

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(Not arguing for or against religiosity), but under the assumption that the Bible is true, the fall of man had to have been premeditated/planned. I have Christian friends who accept this, but many others that I have explained this to can't seem to wrap their head around the notion.
 

cuddly_tomato

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GreyWolf257 said:
This one girl that I know insisted that Hitler was Russian, when everyone knows he is German. She also argued with me saying there is no such thing as a Five Star General in the U.S Army, even though it says it right here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_star_general
He was actually Austrian.
 

GreyWolf257

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cuddly_tomato said:
GreyWolf257 said:
This one girl that I know insisted that Hitler was Russian, when everyone knows he is German. She also argued with me saying there is no such thing as a Five Star General in the U.S Army, even though it says it right here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_star_general
He was actually Austrian.
Look in the previous posts. I don't want to explain immigration again.
 

Stalias

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Jun 10, 2009
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I tried to explain to my friends another scenario like the Monty Hall.
A woman has a baby. She later has another. One of the babies is a girl, what is the probability the other one is a Boy?
The "obvious" answer is 50%, but it isn't. After two babies the set could be,
Boy Boy
Boy Girl
Girl Boy
Girl Girl
Stating one is a girl, we eliminate Boy Boy. Selecting a remaining set, there is a 2 in 3 chance of picking a girl boy pair.
But, if a woman has two children and the older one is a girl, what is the chance the other is a boy?
 

NickCaligo42

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Oct 7, 2007
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BrynThomas said:
3. Several years ago we got asked the Monty Hall problem at high school:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

Essentially there are three doorways, two have goats behind them and one has a car (you want to win the car). You pick a door, then the host reveals a goat behind one of the doors and asks you if you want to swap for the remaining door. The question is whether you should swap doors, the answer being yes because your chance of winning the car is 2/3, rather than 1/3.



I had some friends though who couldn't understand that the two probabilities were linked and affected each other, they said it didn't matter and that the chance of winning the car was 50%. This argument spilled over into an English class, where the English teacher joined in...on their side.

I almost got into a lot of trouble when I told her that her opinion would have mattered had she studied maths rather than arts.
Ha, a friend of my Dad's brought that one up just this past summer. I thought he was yanking my chain until I got a set of cards and tested it out. There was almost no deviation; exactly two out of every three times I turned up the right card.

Well, I have a hard time convincing my mom that sodium is a metal.
 

Datalord

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Oct 9, 2008
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CrazyHaircut94 said:
We were showed that one Monty Hall problem in school. And I didn't get it. Why the fuck would you switch door, the only door you know anything about is the opened one with a goat, how does that have anything to do with your knowledge of the others, the odds are 50/50 after they were 1/3!
Because there are three cases here
1. the car is behind door 1, either goat is shown, switching loses
2. the car is behind door 2, the goat behind door 3 is shown, switching wins
3. the car is behind door 3, the goat behind door 2 is shown, switching wins

possible wins/possible outcomes=2/3

Q.E.D. you have a 66% chance of winning if you switch
 

Seva

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Dec 24, 2009
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If you're in one of these heated arguments, and you KNOW that you're right, bet $20. The other person will either accept your bet, and you will win $20, or the person will decline in which case you will be able to use their lack of confidence in your own favor.

Also, Bryn, that was by far the best explanation of the Monty Hall problem.
 

Silva

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Apr 13, 2009
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Everyone has this issue, because once we become adults we all have our own level of ego when it comes to who is right. It's just part of dealing with other adults that there is a kind of political game at work behind the scenes, which, if you're good at it, allows you to communicate that someone is incorrect without insulting their confidence.

Unfortunately, people, within my experience, often decide to ignore that possibility and just say that the other side is wrong, or else that someone has to be wrong and someone has to be right. Neither of those statements ever helps. Look at how society is split down the middle on religious grounds - atheists are convinced that there is no God, and religious people are convinced that there is, or else that there are many gods, or that there are spirits, or magic, etc. All of this division is really, obviously, a result of ego. A result of our need to be correct over others, and to divide ourselves from those who's disagreement is an inconvenience.

While it is true that saying you're right when you have very powerful evidence saying that you are makes you objectively justified, only through empathy and subjective reasoning will you ever convince those who disagree. In other words, tolerance comes before charisma, and charisma before diplomacy, and diplomacy before decisions, if you want to convince people on this. Few will surrender their ego immediately except if the empirical evidence is on hand - if it is, then that is a powerful tool indeed.

The situation with your sister is one example. If you had seen this information on a computer with her present, you might have said, "huh, I didn't know that, listen to this, sis", and read the thing that she didn't believe out. She would have accepted it, I'd bet. This is a result of the lack of ego-threatening danger in the situation - instead of directly attempting to prove her incorrect or "wrong", you have given her new data that suggests she was misinformed. That situation means that her self-worth is not threatened. So try the new data approach next time you have such an issue, with your sister if you can, since with family it is possible to have the data nearby in the house.

Never expect the scientific approach to thinking from others. You will be disappointed, and in any case, you might be wrong yourself on occasion. Not everything can be solved with objective logic.

AkJay said:
This is a REAL argument I had with someone. I swear to your God that I wish I was lying:

(I live on the North-East Coast of the U.S.A)

Girl: "The Moon is closer to us than Florida"
Me: "No it isn't"
Girl: "Yes it is! I can see the Moon, it's there, and I cannot see Florida, so it's simple logic that the Moon is closer."
Me in the middle of face-palming: "The Moon is thousands of miles away, Florida is in our country, We can drive to Florida in a few hours or one day at the most. It took a spaceship with rocket propulsion 3 days, and trust me, those rockets are going a lot faster than 65 MPH."
Girl: "Whatever, you're full of shit."

EDIT: Another argument I just remembered.

Guy : "Where is the other side of the map?"
Me : "The map is flat, there is no other side."
Guy : "You're joking? right? The world is a sphere, any idiot knows that. So if the map is one side, where is the other side?"
This will be held in my mind for good as proof that, at this stage in history, America still has horrible general education for geography. Or, possibly none. Then again, it might be a child speaking in both of those situations. It wouldn't be a big deal if a three year old said it. An adult, well... I guess there's a chance they were playing with your mind, too.
 

Datalord

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Oct 9, 2008
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seamusotorain said:
Cargando said:
That [i/]Physalia Physalis[/i] is not a jellyfish.

[img/]http://pamiejane.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/portuguese-man-o-war.jpg[/img]
There, the Portugese Man O' War.
I do believe it's a bunch of parasites held together with hatred and the tears of small children.

I'm not a maths-sy person, but a friend taught me how to use algebra to prove that 1=2. I'll edit the post to include it later, but no-one would be believe me. Even when I wrote the proof down.
I know that proof, and you are wrong, because you divided by zero in the proof
 

WolfThomas

Man must have a code.
Dec 21, 2007
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Seva said:
Also, Bryn, that was by far the best explanation of the Monty Hall problem.
I find it best if done visually, using three cards is usually the most easy way (e.g. two black and a red)
 

Datalord

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Oct 9, 2008
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antipunt said:
(Not arguing for or against religiosity), but under the assumption that the Bible is true, the fall of man had to have been premeditated/planned. I have Christian friends who accept this, but many others that I have explained this to can't seem to wrap their head around the notion.
Ok, i know we are supposed to avoid religion and blah blah blah....

DO NOT take the bible literally, especially the Old Testament.

The stories are meant to contain hidden morals about how to live life.
For example, Genesis contains 2 stories describing creation, the first is meant to show that God is all powerful and the source of all things
The second is to show that God loves humanity and mistrusting God causes only suffering

Only the Historical books contain history, the historical books, like the gospels, Kings, and Acts