Matthew Jabour said:
Remember during the Gamecube days? Call me crazy, but I think we had this exact same debacle. In fact, we had this same argument a year or two after the Wii launched, when everyone said its sales would drop off and we'd never hear from Nintendo again. What's more, I bet we'll have this same argument again in a few years when they announce their new console. I had assumed that everyone recognized a pattern when they saw it, and that we'd never have this problem again.
IN the gamecube days, Nintendo wasn't poised to post three years of operating losses. They also didn't have to cut sales projections on the console by nearly 80%.
Matthew Jabour said:
Next, handhelds. Nintendo always has, and always will, dominate the handheld market. As long as their handheld sales are strong, they can piss away however much money they want and still be financially sound.
Nintenod has never had a serious competitor in that space until the smartphone. Granted, I think the 3DS is a fine machine with plenty to love and will likely do fine for several years but continued dominance is a thing of the past. I'd like to see actual data on the subject (attach rates for example) but I'd wager the smartphone is probably absolutely dominating the 3DS when it comes to gaming.
Matthew Jabour said:
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, companies don't just collapse due to a single bad console. Nintendo didn't collapse because of the Gamecube.
The Gamecube was a financial success, actually.
Matthew Jabour said:
Sony didn't collapse in the opening years of the PS3.
Sony has a host of other products that they sell including media players, televisions, etc.
Matthew Jabour said:
Hell, Microsoft unloaded a whole clip into their balls during the Xbox One announcement, and they still sold well.
Which doesn't prove anything about Nintendo's current situation.
Matthew Jabour said:
So far, the only recent company that has withdrawn from the race altogether is Sega, which has spent the last twenty years proving they had no idea how to run a videogame company.
Sega dropped out of the race after releasing a console a short time before newer and drastically more powerful consoles came to market. The lead time they had was insufficient to generate a sustainable user base. It's actually more or less exactly what Nintendo did with the Wii U.
Matthew Jabour said:
And I wish we could learn from these constant misjudgments, but I suppose we'll just keep on supposing for years to come.
Because there is no cogent argument even from
Nintendo regarding how this problem gets better. Your CEO falling on the sword isn't a solution. Swapping out management isn't a solution. What Nintendo
needs to do is get people to buy Wii U and they apparently have no idea how to do that since their strategy for decades now has been "Release Mario, hope for the best".
Matthew Jabour said:
P.S. For those of you saying Nintendo 'deserves to die,' I challenge you: Find a friend who has Nintendo Land and play it with them. Then, tell me the company that made that game deserves to go bankrupt.
A company that does not know how to make a profit deserves to go bankrupt. To suggest they be given a free ride because the made a good thing once is silly. If they want my money, they'll make something I want
now; they don't get it because I really liked a Link to the Past.
Actually, they did get my money for that last one since I did buy a Link Between Worlds.