KissofKetchup said:
I'd say Alaska easily. EVERYBODY has a rifle or shotgun up there out of necessity already. They know the crazy ass terrain, plus the rest of the 49 states probably wouldn't fare too well up in the frozen tundra (See Napoleon's Russian campaign)
Yeah, but can they organize? There's a lot of Alaska for relatively few Alaskans, so offensive doctrine would be pretty much nil. Plus, I don't know that you'd have to be the last state standing to "win"...assuming somebody conquers most of the lower 48, they could probably ignore Alaska till they'd built up a sizable invasion force without Alaska being able to respond.
Assuming we're to assume that the federal gov't wouldn't intervene and the states could seize the military hardware in their borders, I'd go for California or Florida. Cali first because of its economy (maybe they could declare martial law and raise some gorram taxes, finally), and because they've got a fair amount of rugged, nonessential territory buffering their essential, coastal territory, and because shutting down & seizing Nevada shouldn't be hard (get rid of Las Vegas, and you've pretty much got the state's government and economy...you'd just have to starve the remaining military installations). Florida because of current military there, plus economy & coastline...plus, the deep-South states just north of them would probably fall into anarchy as soon as the Feds are gone, so they'd be easy pickins. Texas could have a good run, but they'd likely end up in a war with an opportunistic Mexico, which would put them in an awful strategic position.