Gamers are Killing the Games Industry

[JEBWrench]

Again, there's a simple solution for piracy that I outlined in my rant but it needs to be done by everyone and not just one company.

Also, Spore. Contained DRM and yet it was the most pirated game of 2008. That doesn't show that DRM works at all.

And the piracy rate was only about 30%.
Rates are better indicators than sheer numbers.

As for the solution, I'm not sure what in your rant was a solution; were you referring to publishing hard data? If so, I'm all for that. The trouble is, it's all subjective. The only study I've found puts to about 1 to 1,000. (And my math was wrong in a prior post. 50% piracy rate translates to about 0.05% more sales, not 5%.)

that's a HUGE difference, such a huge difference that it hardly is worth arguing about. If that's the case, Bobby Kotick spends more on toilet paper then he'd get from all the "extra sales lost to piracy".

Yep, it is. And I apologize for the mistake.

(It would mean about an extra 100,000 for EA. Negligable to them).
But to small indies, any extra money helps.

And in the World of Goo case, they're still vehemently anti-DRM. And their reward? Thousands of people play their game without paying for it. Even when they charged whatever the customer wanted to pay for it.

I'm also pretty sure that the number would go down based on the size of the franchise being released.

 

[AndyFromMonday]

Again, there's a simple solution for piracy that I outlined in my rant but it needs to be done by everyone and not just one company.

Also, Spore. Contained DRM and yet it was the most pirated game of 2008. That doesn't show that DRM works at all.

And the piracy rate was only about 30%.
Rates are better indicators than sheer numbers.

As for the solution, I'm not sure what in your rant was a solution; were you referring to publishing hard data? If so, I'm all for that. The trouble is, it's all subjective. The only study I've found puts to about 1 to 1,000. (And my math was wrong in a prior post. 50% piracy rate translates to about 0.05% more sales, not 5%.)

I was referring to companies publishing data on countries, specifically which countries downloaded the game the most. Giving that they can know if their game was pirated a lot, companies could at least show which country had the most downloads.

They are determining piracy by the amount of downloads, right?

 

[qubit]

*snip*

I'm an idealist, but that is poppycock. One person's "bad game" is another person's "favorite game ever".

Fair enough. I completely get your point, but I was just trying to see if we could possibly translate game quality into some sort of monetary form that would make polish a financial incentive, instead of just an artistic/fun one.

 

[JEBWrench]

I was referring to companies publishing data on countries, specifically which countries downloaded the game the most. Giving that they can know if their game was pirated a lot, companies could at least show which country had the most downloads.

They are determining piracy by the amount of downloads, right?

That's what I thought you were suggesting, and I agree with it. The more data, the better.
I don't think DRM effects profits to large companies very much. But I'm more concerned with the indies. The ones who need monies.

 

[kingmob]

My source is based off torrent dowloads alone, which I don't post openly on account of not wanting to advocate piracy in any way, even indirectly.

As for DRM working/not working, I think there's some sort of graph not unlike the uncanny valley one - something involving invasiveness of said DRM.

So you did what? Take the number of torrents downloaded? This is not statistics, this is trying to find data conforming to the theory, wrongly seen as statistics. You can not, in any meaningful way, say anything about what the number represents, besides the fact how many times the torrent file was transferred. Such lies - since that is what they were - have already been used by the industry too often.

 

[Altorin]

on the main topic, I have to say, the only things (in my opinion) really harming the industry as a whole are;

1) the drive to push graphical power up at all costs.. I love a pretty game, but if a game costs 10x as much because it looks prettier, that's painful to the industry

2) the proliferation of the used game market. Due to number 1, game prices increase (although not nearly as much as people usually complain about, but the big companies are pushing for more expensive games (Kotick wants 70 dollars to become the norm)).. Gamers in this hard economic time need to save money where they can, so they buy used. The games industry is shooting itself in the feet.. I really don't have any solutions other then bringing down the cost of development so you can sell games for cheaper, and hopefully beat used game retailers at their own game... and make a product that has more real value new then it does used (Bioware's Free-DLC for example).

3) Corporates banking on things that didn't pan out in the long run, like music games. That will all sort itself out eventually. Won't cause irrevocable damage for the company, but sadly, it cost people a lot of jobs, in a really bad time to lose jobs.

that's pretty much it... Piracy may be an issue (despite my caterwauling I'll admit that it might be an issue.. I just want numbers), but I doubt its impact is as bad as it seems, when you first look at it.. the success of "bad games" and the the failure of "good games" is sad, but success in this industry doesn't account for personal taste. It's all about broader appeal.

 

[Altorin]

And in the World of Goo case, they're still vehemently anti-DRM. And their reward? Thousands of people play their game without paying for it. Even when they charged whatever the customer wanted to pay for it.

2D boy is a sad case, but I think with the proliferation and success of things like Steam, various Appstores, XBLA, PSN and Facebook, it's a good time to be an independant game developer, as long as you can put out a quality product.

 

[Epitome]

Wow this is a very good thread, time for sme of my tuppence I think

DRM is evil, really it does nobody any good and I cannot fathom why it still exists. Not once has it worked to the best of my knowledge. DRM arose from a need to combat pirates and yes I understand that. But it doesnt, pirates are unaffected by DRM, they get a superior version of the game with no limited installs, malware or this 100% stable internet bs. DRM is not an anti-piracy weapon in practice. Yeah I can see on paper how it could work, but all it takes is one broken copy and then once its torrented the only people who will ever suffer the DRM's invasiveness are the legit customers. So pirates get more converts to speed up their torrent downloads, devs and publishers lose money from their alienated customers and customers get shafted with DRM dicking around on their pc's ad aking teh game a less enjoyable experience. So why is it still used in larger and more invasive amounts?

The problem now arises that it becomes harder and harder to side with the companies. Take AC2 for example for me a definate GOTY 2009 contender a title that most gamers would consider. So we accept that alot of people want the product. For the purposes of this say everybody wants the game and will buy it or pirate it. Say all legit gamers everywhere decide to buy legit AC2 copies despite this invasive DRM to show Ubi support for the title and give them the numbers they want to see in sales. This would tell Ubi that the new DRM is working and it would surely be copied from then on in future titles. This is a situation we must avoid because we wont tolerate this new DRM bs.

But take the alternative, say we decide to pirate the game instead and show Ubi we wont stand for this DRM shit. History has taught us Ubi will chalk all losses to pirates and AC3's budget will be smaller and its DRM twice as bad because Ubi seems to think thats what will win them back their customers. We gamers are not at fault here, we are in a damned if we do damned if we dont situation, since we are in that situation why not get the superior version for free?

I'm not condoning piracy btw, I'm just saying from my perspective pirates are making the logical decison. Even if your one of those "buy the box, pirate the game" people, your still supporting the DRM on that title when you purchase. Ubi has to learn that increasing DRM = lowered sales =/= piracy. DRM is turning away the legits, piracy is just the best alternative.

 

[JEBWrench]

My source is based off torrent dowloads alone, which I don't post openly on account of not wanting to advocate piracy in any way, even indirectly.

As for DRM working/not working, I think there's some sort of graph not unlike the uncanny valley one - something involving invasiveness of said DRM.

So you did what? Take the number of torrents downloaded? This is not statistics, this is trying to find data conforming to the theory, wrongly seen as statistics. You can not, in any meaningful way, say anything about what the number represents, besides the fact how many times the torrent file was transferred. Such lies - since that is what they were - have already been used by the industry too often.

Torrents downloaded vs. Units sold.

As opposed to straight up torrents downloaded, which is what several people go on about in the case of "most pirated game of the year".

Though in the case of 2D boy, it's based off unique IPs logging into the game server vs. those used to purchase the game, with a factor of - I believe it was 1.5 - IPs per household to make up the difference for those with dynamic IPs.

Don't get me wrong, I dislike the direction that DRM is going. But it does appear to reduce piracy. The trouble is that it just doesn't make a huge difference in sales, especially to large developers.

My problem is when a company like 2D Boy is anti-DRM, and their reward is one of the highest rates of piracy in the industry.

 

[JEBWrench]

How exactly do you track the number of torrents downloaded? There isn't only one tracker in the entire internet, you know. There are like hundreds of them. And some trackers you won't have access to.

Using results compiled on a site I won't direct link to as previously stated.

And not only that, the total number of pirated copies downloaded can only go up from there.

 

[mooncalf]

Pirates have no business breaking the law for cheap thrills, and publishers have no business running roughshod over consumer rights.

 

[veloper]

Fans BUY the music, because they do not want to fuck their favourite artists over. Not in that way.

It could be the same with game developers.

If DRM were about piracy, then all the money wasted on DRM would be infinitely better served in paying the developers to do more interviews; get on TV etc. Connect the human face to the company. I won't pirate from the ugly mugs at Valve or Bioware.

Ofcourse, DRM is NOT about piracy, because publishers cannot all be total morons. Piracy is just the excuse, so publishers won't look like the greedy asholes they are.

The point of DRM is to squeeze more money out of the loyal, paying customers.
DRM publisher advantages:
1 kill resale
2 remove old games and back catalogue (by shutting down the activation servers)
3 gradually break gamers to expensive subscription based gaming in a forseable future

Publisher's wet dream: re-release old games over and over again.

Trouble is, it's not the same with games. Independent games without DRM get pirated to ridiculous levels. World of Goo is only one example. Ricochet Infinity? 92%.

But the crazy thing is? Statistically speaking from the indie market? It takes the removal of about 1,000 pirated downloads to equate to one single sale.

The most effective technique to the smaller devs appears to be just dealing with exploits and keygens as they come along - amounts to about a 70% increase in sales with a slight drop in piracy.

Source, and unfortunately very single-game specific, but as I said before, it's really freakin' hard to find hard data on this stuff: http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=17350

If they couldn get a 70% increase in the casual market, then it's because some computer illiterates cannot even figure out how to torrent.
Nothing stops the crackers, ever.

Casual gamers have no passion for gaming, so it comes as no suprise that pirated copies of that game, make a 92%.

Fans buy.
Adult Gamers buy.
Kids pirate.

It should be just a matter of figuring out what the paying demographics want to play and then focus on that.
Make good games for the real gamers and ignore the deadbeats who get a free ride anyway. The kids may grow up to become paying adult gamers, so you still win.

Connect to the fans and the potential fans, because fans won't rip you off.

Piracy is nothing new, but as the average gamer is getting older (33 years average already now), things can only get better.

 

[JEBWrench]

If they couldn get a 70% increase in the casual market, then it's because some computer illiterates cannot even figure out how to torrent.
Nothing stops the crackers, ever.

Casual gamers have no passion for gaming, so it comes as no suprise that pirated copies of that game, make a 92%.

Fans buy.
Adult Gamers buy.
Kids pirate.

It should be just a matter of figuring out what the paying demographics want to play and then focus on that.
Make good games for the real gamers and ignore the deadbeats who get a free ride anyway. The kids may grow up to become paying adult gamers, so you still win.

Connect to the fans and the potential fans, because fans won't rip you off.

Piracy is nothing new, but as the average gamer is getting older (33 years average already now), things can only get better.

Unfortunately, this data is also bloody well hard to come by. But it feels like you're onto the right point. Especially with games that are digital distribution only. Thus the "kids pirate" part.

Though I'm not so sure about the passion for gaming thing. Casual gaming is still a multi-billion dollar industry.

 

[alinos]

It's taken me a while to realize, but we're the problem. In a way almost no other medium has to deal with, the target audience for games is such that we're a largely untenable audience now that technology on the back-end has gotten to the point where gamers writ large can go toe-to-toe with any anti-piracy actions the developers engage in. While the argument that "pirates can defeat any DRM software easily, so don't use DRM" holds about as much water for me as "burglars can break into your house even if you lock it, so don't lock it", the attitude of "DRM makes me pirate games" is prevalent enough to truly concern me.


It's still prohibitively difficult to pirate games on consoles, but I believe that's the next step. At that point, game companies will either (a) escalate the DRM war, and alienate people, or (b) accept significant populations of people pirating rather than buying. "But-" I hear you cry "it doesn't cost them anything if I play without paying, if the alternative is that I not play at all, and it gives word of mouth, ect." It's possible, but in a weakened economy, that word of mouth is less likely to inspire "more sales" as "more piracy".


Do you want that in gaming? Gaming is hung primarily on a backbone of big-budget blockbusters. We want Halo, we want Mass Effect, MW2, and full 3D everywhere. Do you think that a bedroom programming company can do that? Imagine if all of gaming was Peggle and Steam games (not the big-name ones, the "independent" games); would that sate our thirst for games?

ok except for the fact that DRM is getting to the point where its less lock your door and more place your house inside a Dome with temperature sensors lasers and a high ropes course above a pit of spikes to get to your house every day. where the pirates just fly there chopper in blow a hole in the roof off your nice little dome and rappel down and once the path is opened once everyone else can get in aswell, except for somereason your still climbing and flipping through those lasers

one of my major problems with games these days is they dont have demos, these companies should have enough confidence in there product that my playing of a demo will make me want to play the game. since i dont have as much time these days i dont play as much so my purchases are ones im pretty sure ill enjoy but some games want me to fork over a bunch of money after all theve given me is an add(that may or may not actually show anything ingame) im gonna use a pirate copy to justify my purchase. case in my mind is Batman:AA being a superhero game i was dubious after playing the first hour i knew i wanted it i went and bought the collectors edition because of that face now i still havent actually installed my legitimate copy of the game its sitting on the shelf above my computer but i wanted to play more and didnt want to lose 30 min uninstalling the pirate copy and installing my nice copy(although im sure DLC will cause me to at some point (if i find time))

As for the bedroom developers alot of the time when they actually manage to put out a product it has actually listened to the people who want to play it some of them are great some mods are great games in there own right, if it wasnt for the fact that the bedroom developers arent allowed to sell there content based on other peoples game engines(like most of those big games are due to licensing and what not there a chance wed have better games)

i dont want another halo or MW i want the end of my ME trilogy and thats it the series should retire after that all though i have no doubt were gonna see EA pump out a ME based shooter eventually, the whole graphics thing is mute i want gameplay not graphics(sure i have a sweet rig but id still prefer my game to play well than to look good)

And they have to put dedicated servers back in i refuse to buy any game with matchmaking on the principal my time is valuable and the little i get to game with i dont want to be sitting in a lobby waiting for 3 more players and then get stuck in an american server with laggy lag
(They can say its a piracy preventer all they like except the pirates always seem to find a way into it) i think even the consoles should have dedicated servers(even if people just organise them and the matchmaking + favourite system is implemented over the server browser type)


these companies are in the market of sales they should be convincing me i want to play there game rather than another, yes pirates exsist but there reasons to pirate other than just pirating (IE demos, They released it early i know people who downloaded MW2 for there 360 for the sake of playing it early they still have legit copies, sometimes to avoid the DRM even after buying the legit copy(family member done this with spore)) They cant expect to up the price and reduce the content forever, games seemed to be fine when it was only a niche now that its mainstream the piracys gone rampant so maybe its less the gamers are killing the industry but the newbies are. or maybe its just selling me a sequel each year like MW2 that is detracting from Okami

dmn that got kinda long

 

[jthm]

Sounds more to me like you're saying pirates are killing the games industry... I'd say that they're just killing the pc game industry and frankly, good riddance anyway. Modding a system takes a bit more effort and is easier to stop (see M$ disabling your modded system if it signs on xbox live for example). I quit playing pc games years ago because I got tired of constantly having to upgrade my computer to play the latest game and because of drms, which are in my opinion what's really killing pc gaming anyway.

 

[Altorin]

*snip*demo*snip*

I still lol when I remember Cliffy B referring to demos as "cheap sex"

 

[JEBWrench]

Demos are certainly a lot less accessible than they used to be. I thought about checking out some demos lately, saw they'd take about a tenth of my monthly bandwidth, and said, "To Hell with that. Back to OOTPB2007".

 

[alinos]

I can't tell if you're actually serious about that.
There's absolutely no reason why someone who can't afford to game should be able to do so. Entertainment is optional. Not necessary.

I'm not talking about affording, I'm talking about overpricing. If companies choose to overprice games then I will have no problem with pirating it.

(I had a rant about this on my first post on this page. Read it)

Actually, I didn't notice your prior rant, sorry.

But, whose opinion should be used on what "overpriced" is.
Game companies have no trouble selling boat-loads of games, and, believe it or not, they do have professional bean-counters who help set the price.

Look at MW2. Despite the huge piracy numbers (though the rate is only roughly 20%), and the expensive tag, it sold somewhere close to bleentillion copies.

If the price was lower? I bet the numbers for sales and piracy would still be pretty close. But the profit would likely drop.

Edit: Crunched some numbers. Sims 3? No DRM? More than 50% piracy rate.

I hate this. The more I crunch, the more it looks like DRM actually works. Fucking statistics.

nope that doesnt count sims 3 was pirated because its a series game regardless of DRM or not it would have still been pirated, i mean simply look at the crowd for the sims normally female and some will not be techsavy or know about DRM at all but there boyfriends family members what not will pirate it for them because A)it will keep them quiet and B) hey sis remember how i saved you 100AUS on Sims 3 well i need a favour

also where are these numbers coming from the number of torrent transfers is not a statistic in anyway as there is crossover between downloaded copies and legitimate ones

Also Entertainment is optional but as i pointed out in my rant, my entertainment is indeed optional but now days were given no idea of how entertained we might be with said purchase for my 100 AUS i want at least 10-15 hours SP from a FPS and more from anything else i also want DS MP) i refuse to accept MM because anytime i have to sit in a lobby w8ing for players only to load into a laggy match is a waste of my time

you say if the price was lower piracy wouldnt change

random teenager has 300 dollars disposable income per month and theres say 3 games per month he wants to play at 100 dollars a pop he has no other entertainment and whatnot per month and if he doesnt get one this month hes gonna have 4 to choose from next month so he pirates one of them and has 100 dollars disposable income at the end of the month he may have some left that can go into next moth or he might not
Now if the games are 80 dollars he can buy all 3 games and have 60 dollars left over sure its not as much as his 100 but he has something which is alot more than he had when the games were 100

the real reason that piracy wouldnt change is because people already find it convienient however the flipside to this is that so long as prices stay high you run the risk of slowly pushing your now paying customers into a segment where they start to pirate(which is larger as we as a society get more techsavy every year

ironically the solution to this whole piracy problem lies in onlive because A) it streams only the video content to your computer/TV so you and no one else ever comes into contact with the source code B) one would have some sort of rental service on that so you dont have to pay 100 dollars per game

unfortunatly the internet couldnt handle the world running like that and some countrys just dont have the internet structure to handle it either