With the lower price point and more open game ownership policy, PS4 definitely has a huge edge. Paying for Playstation online would hurt it, but Xbox already does that, so that's a push at worst. I don't think Xbox1 is going to actually fail, however. Brand loyalty is a hell of a thing, so it'll probably do alright.
Having said that, I do think the Xbox1 is going to see a market share drop compared to the 360, since loyalty only goes so far. The 24-hour check-in, always on Kinect, and higher price point, when added with the DRM issues, will heavily alienate less devoted 360 owners.
Of course, at this stage, this is all speculation. I see the holiday sales as being the real deciding point. I really don't see MS changing any of its current policies unless it falls a distant third during Christmas. I personally believe that it will, as I can't see a reason for 1 to even really beat the WiiU (MS's decision to try and create an all in one living room system as opposed to a straight gaming console means it's trying to grab casual and non-gamer cash, an area that Nintendo has a very strong hold on).
Of course, I'm a PC guy through and through, so I don't directly have a dog in this race. I do kinda hope Xbox1 suffers a big enough defeat to maybe cause the major publishers to pause and reconsider their current trend of ever increasing control and intrusive DRM, so I guess I indirectly do (or at least have a dog I wanna see get shot).