Poll: How well do you think the Xbone will sell? (Especially considering DRM scandal)

[Simalacrum]

So, a poll I posted a couple days ago [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/forums/read/9.409906-Poll-Will-you-buy-an-Xbone-considering-the-recent-news-about-DRM#17154175] showed an overwhelming number of people saying that they didn't want to buy the Xbox One, or that the DRM scandal had put them off buying it. Suffice to say, if The Escapist represented the average consumer, Microsoft would be screwed.

However, as we all know, 'hardcore' gamers that frequent this website and forums aren't the majority. Considering this, how do you, as a gamer, think the Xbox One will fare in sales? Do you think a regular consumer will care or even know about the DRM issues with the Xbox One? Do you think it'll be substantially affected (negatively or positively) by the controversy surrounding it?

Please don't rant on the Xbox One here; we're all very aware how crappy the 24-hour online thingy and used games situation is. Rather, purely on a business level, do you think Microsoft will find themselves regretting the current situation once the console is released?

 

[krazykidd]

It will sell , about average or below average , depending on the price and when it comes out compared to the ps4 . People that are knowledgable about games won't buy it en masse , however there is a small percentage who won't care . And the average comsumer , which i think is the grand majority of people , will buy it anyways .

Now do i think it will meet microsofts expectation? No. But we've seen how companies have surreal expectations . But it will sell . What i'm hoping is , that with time , people will stop using it because of bad practices .

 

[PoolCleaningRobot]

I don't think it'll sell well. Probably mediocre. Statistics vary but between 25-15% of all consoles are never connected to the Internet. 24 hour checks? There are a lot of situations where that simply won't work. Even the "uninformed masses" who don't know about these things will find out the hard way through early adopters. I can see kids and parents getting this only to find out they don't have the network for it. I predict some shitty Christmases in the near future

 

[Something Amyss]

Suffice to say, if The Escapist represented the average consumer, Microsoft would be screwed. :

IF, and ONLY IF the average Escapist sticks to their word regarding not buying it. It's fairly common in gaming to scream "Boycott" and then buy it quietly anyway.

My friend's list if full of such hypocrites regarding Call of Duty, Mass Effect, and Dragon Age.

For this reason alone, I think the Xbone will sell well.

 

[Something Amyss]

I talked to my cousin and he fully acknowledges it sucks...but he is getting one because his friends are getting one and nothing I say can sway him.

Thankfully, all my friends seem to be sticking with the 360. Which is probably moot, as I think I'm dropping out of multiplayer gaming due to those same friends having the attention span of a goldfish with ADHD. "OOOOH! YOU HAVE TO SPEND 60 DOLLARS ON THIS NEW SHINY THING!" four minutes later "CALL OF DUTYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY EVERYONE!!!!!"

I was already upgrading my PC so I could play games not available on consoles. This just makes it more likely that I will buy a game for the PC.

 

[Genocidicles]

I think it might have good opening sales, followed by tons of backlash by all the people who bought the thing not knowing about all the DRM bullshit, which will lead to sale figures sharply dropping.

 

[StriderShinryu]

I think it will sell very well amongst the traditional non gamer market. I also see it selling perfectly well amongst more dedicated gamers given A.) Sony not totally doing things differently and/or B.) that the One has a strong line up of exclusive games.

All told, in the end and given that the One makes it through the initial period where dedicated gamers are the main purcahsers, I don't see the released details making a huge difference. he Wii has already proven that for a ssytem to be successful as far as sales are concerned, it doesn't have to be the system of choice for more dedicated gamers. And, if the exclusive line up ends up strong enough, I don't see more dedicated gamers staying away all that long anyway.

 

[Jesse Billingsley]

Consoles need to stop trying to introduce more and more useless features and functions and just simply play games like they used to. I don't need to access my facebook while I watch youtube videos, that is what a computer is for and if you own a console with online capabilities, chances are you have a computer.

 

[Dirty Hipsters]

The hardware will sell decently well. It won't sell quite as well as Microsoft is predicting and hoping, but it'll sell well.

The games however won't.

The people who are most likely to buy the xbox one are people who only buy a couple of games a year, Call of Duty, Madden, Halo, maybe Assassin's Creed. Those games will sell on that console, and the console will sell to people who buy those games. Really hardcore gamers however, people who understand the industry, will avoid the xbox one like the plague. Unfortunately for microsoft, these are also the people who buy 10+ games a year, and these are the people who sell lesser known games by word of mouth. Without these people using their console Microsoft is going to have a hard time selling games, especially new franchises, and games are really what keep a console afloat.

Microsoft is consciously putting itself in the same position that the Wii put itself in the previous generation. It's a console that doesn't appeal to core gamers, and while it might do well initially with the casual crowd, it's not going to work out for them long term.

 

[Zeh Don]

Microsoft spent US$500,000,000.00 marketing the Kinect sensor, and it became the fastest selling consumer electronics device in history. They'll spend whatever they have to in order to get the Xbone off with a bang.

Launch Day for the Xbone will be terrific.
Launch Week for the Xbone will still be pretty good.
Launch Month for the Xbone will be doing... ok.
First six months, and it's struggling everywhere.
First year, and Sony are so far in front that the Xbone will never catch up.

 

[Requia]

Yes, but not as well as PS4.

 

[Adam Jensen_v1legacy]

The thing that will tip the scale in favor of one console over the other is the initial price. At least at launch. Most people are uninformed about these things so they just go for the more advertized and/or cheaper product.

Another thing a lot of people haven't considered is the fact that people can sell the console. If Xbox One sells well initially, that doesn't mean it will be a success. When people realize the restrictions Xbox One imposes upon them they might just sell it and get the PS4.

 

[BrotherRool]

It's going to do well. A lot of people won't know about this stuff, and of the people who do a lot of people don't care. The Penny Arcade guy for example is 'one of us' but he just sees this as the future and PC users have already shown we can easily adjust to the model.

And if you look at their exclusives, timed exclusive on COD? That's going to be gold. And then there's the potential that Titanfall is going to break out.


The only real hope I have is that hackers are going to completely do a number of Microsofts servers, DDoS the crud out of it so in the launch week absolutely no-one can play their games.


Then that would hit the headlines and ordinary consumers would drop that like a rock. And then consumer lack of information would hurt Microsoft because nothing would convince people that it couldn't happen again and people would start complaining about credit card info even though DDoSing is entirely unrelated

 

[Grivahri]

on a side note Wii U sales on Amazon.co.uk post XBone reveal went up 800+%...

Yeah but what numbers are we talking about here? 800% increase of 2000 sold a week is not that impressive

 

[Dirty Hipsters]

Hopefully, people will be smart enough to know that supporting Microsoft's Xbone runs counter the idea that the consumer should have rights. The world will largely understand it and not buy the bloody thing.

Unfortunately, team America will support the thing in the same way they put up with the 360s bullshit, just because it's American and many Americans (not all) are nothing if not patriotic and xenophobic zealots.

So really, it'll sell poorly aound the world but sell well in America. The net result, I expect Gamecube like sales (third place for about 30 million). The PS4 will dominate in the next gen (90 - 100 million is my estimate) with the WiiU being a solid second place contender.

And if you don't believe me about the American's purchasing it regardless, the 360 had one of the worst hardware failure rates, hardly any exclusives, a pay 2 play multiplayer service and still had American fanboys supporting them at all costs... truly sad.

You know only about 1/3 of the Xbox 360s sold were sold in the US right?