So now that HD-DVD is dead

[eggdog14]

Yes. I would like to see both formats fail. While I could see an advantage to HD (notably in the scene in Clerks where Randal flashes a porno mag at the screen. In a movie theater, you could see it clear as day, on my standard TV, not a thing) it is not a significant enough advantage for most people to care.

You're Wrong. Period.
This year, more HD-TV's were sold in the US than standard definition TV's. This shows a clear-cut transition into the HD format. The majority if broadcast cable is now delivered in HD if you have the equipment. Seeing as Holywood-budget movies were filmed in Cinema HD (roughly 4x 1080p) the obvious course of action is to transfer to the highest resolution possible.

Concerning the war, the fact that there is one is unfortunate. There was alway competition, VHS vs. Beta-Max, DVD vs. VideoDisk, but those were always clear-cut and immediate victories.

Blu-Ray is, however much i hate sony, the winner in this case though. This week, Warner Brothers went Blu-Ray, giving it a solid 70% of the market. This majority means the consumers will head towards Blu-Ray for the wider selection, forcing other companies to switch or else lose the HD market. In addition to Film Studios, with Microsoft's adherence to HD-DVD, Apple will most likely switch to Blu-Ray, giving it a massive boost, perhaps not in sales, but in innovation.

Another interesting economic factor concerning Apple; it is the industry standard video-processing computers, which means if Apple goes blu-ray, thats the disk studios will be editing on.

Kudos for Sony, even if the PS3 was an unmitigated disaster, Blu-Ray should give them a big chunk of change.

-peace

 

[rawlight]

Well, I must be an idiot then because I really do believe that most people won't buy a new player because it's new. The point is that the new formats aren't an upgrade in any meaningful sense of the word. Few actually care about HD let alone own HD TVs, despite the media coverage. The sales figures at the big box retailers are evidence enough of that.

I actually don't think that you understand how Microsoft maintains dominance in the PC market, but that's another topic for another time. I'm not really sure what you mean by Vista "failing". It's already pretty full of fail to begin with, I'm not sure how one could say Vista WILL fail when it already IS fail...

This is the funniest part of your reply though:

"In both cases people looking to purchase upgrades etc are the target here not the people with thirty and forty dvds or people who already have XP."

What exactly are these targeted people supposed to be upgrading if they don't have DVDs?

I also did answer the question in your OP, I said:

"I predict that one of the drive manufacturers will figure out a way to get both formats to work on one drive, making the whole thing pointless (which it already is). Until there is a direct upgrade path (which will still read "old" DVDs) most consumers will not make the jump."

In other words, never/nobody will care in a year or two.

 

[rawlight]

There was alway competition, VHS vs. Beta-Max, DVD vs. VideoDisk, but those were always clear-cut and immediate victories.

This is totally false, it's very easy for a young person to look back and make an observation like this, but at the time it was not clear cut in the slightest.

EDIT: Oh yeah, and the fact that more HD sets were sold than standard tvs this year does not show a clear migration towards HD. since the majority of people don't buy a new set every year.

 

[Jimmyjames]

There was alway competition, VHS vs. Beta-Max, DVD vs. VideoDisk, but those were always clear-cut and immediate victories.

This is totally false, it's very easy for a young person to look back and make an observation like this, but at the time it was not clear cut in the slightest.

Rawlight is right.

As far as format wars though, it was more like this:

VHS/Betamax: VHS won, but Beta lingered for a LONG time.
VideoDiscs/Laserdisc: Technically neither won, but Laserdisc was more popular with Videophiles.
DVD/DiVX: Dvd SLAUGHTERED DiVX. Who wanted to rent movies from themselves? DiVX also proved that consumers don't always want to have their movie players connected to the internet.

There was a loooong time that I didn't step foot inside a Circuit City because they were DiVX backers. If you went in for a toaster they'd try to sell you a DiVX player.

 

[eggdog14]

Ah, my mistake on Beta-Max. Not my generation, No contest about DVD though.

Also, that fails to undermine the rest of my point concerning blu-ray.


"Oh yeah", more HD sets sold per year means HD currently holds a LARGER MARKET.
Which means prices go down, manufacturing goes up. Rawlight is wrong.

 

[Jimmyjames]

...more HD sets sold per year means HD currently holds a LARGER MARKET.
Which means prices go down, manufacturing goes up. Rawlight is wrong.

Wrong, and right. MORE SOLD doesn't mean that INSTALLED BASE is larger, just that they sold more that year. Not difficult being that it is getting hard to even find CRTs in stores now.

The blu-ray camp could say they sold players than standard def DVD this year(for example), but it doesn't mean there are more blu-ray players in homes. A good example is the PS2. There are more PS2s in homes than the Wii, PS3, and 360 combined. Which is why there are still games being made for it.

You're correct about the manufacturing costs going down, though.

 

[ohnoitschris]

Ugh, I hear this kind of talk about Blu-Ray and HD-DVD from a friend of mine who's obsessed with it (and just NOW got a HDTV). Every single time he brings it up, I refute with the same arguement:

People are not going to go for buying yet ANOTHER format for a while. DVD is massive, and not everyone has purchased a HDTV. Even I know plenty of people who are still watching the same set they bought in the 80's/90's. Most people wouldn't know what the heck SDTV means, and what the difference between interlaced and progressive scan is. Why? They just don't care. It's just an entertainment medium, not something to throw hundreds of dollars at just so we can see everybody's nosehairs.

Watching people argue over high definition content is like watching a couple of kids argue which Power Ranger is stronger. The common man is who defines what sells, and I can almost guarentee you that the next big medium is download content. I'm calling it: In 10 years or less, you will be able to buy a box (or a console) that has it's own cellular Internet access, which allows you to access it's movie library for free. No subscription fees or access charges. You type in your credit card number, and you're charged every time you want to watch a movie. It's as seemless as using a hotel's video service.

 

[KurtNiisan]

I also love how people seem to ***** about how they'll have to replace their current DVD collection if they buy a BluRay/HD-DVD player.

No you don't.

I can only speak for the PS3 (coz I'd not touch the Xbox's HD-DVD drive with a 10-foot pole) but as far as DVD playing goes, the PS3 will upscale DVDs to 1080p anyway. Not as flash as an actual HD disc but it should do for the people who have HD TV sets and "can't tell the difference" between HD image quality and SD image quality.

And if manufacturers of BD/HD standalone players didn't include DVD playback with upscaling, the players would not sell. Period.

 

[rawlight]

Yes, it's true about DVD/DivX that one did not last long. Wasn't really a fair fight though.

Betamax was actually technologically superior to VHS, it lost because VHS was so much cheaper. They still use Betamax in some Middle Eastern countires though.

That's exactly what I'm saying about the HD sets being sold, they don't have a larger market. More HD sets were sold because you can't buy a non-HD TV anymore. At least, the sales peons are instructed to tell you all about the advantages of having more "p" for your TV and that your neighbour probably has 1080p already and it's only a matter of time before your wife starts to have an affair with him.

But seriously, the total number of TV sets is very large and the total number of HD TVs is a drop in that bucket. There are still folks who use analog, forget about HD. Prices still need to come down some more for these things to be affordable to the average person.

 

[JimboG]

The likelyhood is that large games (9GB+) will be released either on a double layer DVD or via download. Even then, 2 Dual layer DVDs can contain 20GB, so we'll probably see something similar to what used to be done with CDs.

 

[shadow skill]

The likelyhood is that large games (9GB+) will be released either on a double layer DVD or via download. Even then, 2 Dual layer DVDs can contain 20GB, so we'll probably see something similar to what used to be done with CDs.

With my internet connection I can download a 4.7gb file in about four hours a 9gb file would take somewhere in the realm of eight hours under perfect conditions of my connection going at the maximum speed the entire time!

 

[Jack Spencer Jr]

Also Jack, Myst did not help to sell CD drives either, where did you get that from?

Oh, I don't know. From working in the compter section in an electronics store at the time and all of the people looking for computers with CD-ROM drives just to play this Myst things. I mean specifically asking for it.

That said, it may be a stretch to call it the only reason and over time, they probably would have been standard, anyway, but Myst and maybe a couple other apps available chiefly, if not exclusively, on CD-ROM helped push it forward that much faster as people needed the device to be able to play Myst or whatever. But the hell with it.

On the topic of downloadable media, I happen to agree with the idea. I am sick of buying stuff to sit on my shelf. I have digital cable with "On Demand" channels and I rent movies from this, not a video store. Well, occasionally I'll go to a video store if that's the only place I can find certain titles. But if downloadable movie services can ever get a library of back catalogs titles, not to mention TV shows and porn (because porn is a freaking huge business and a big part of the reason VCRs were in most homes. Yes, pretend your folks bought a VCR so you kids could watch Disney movies all you want), then I would chuck my collection, and do it gladly. I would even pay a reasonable monthly fee to download movies because that is what I would want, pretty much all the movies that I can watch anytime I want. It seems like such a brilliant step forward, there must be a hole in it somewhere.

 

[Jack Spencer Jr]

I also love how people seem to ***** about how they'll have to replace their current DVD collection if they buy a BluRay/HD-DVD player.

No you don't.

Well, you do if you want to be able to see said movies in the super-duper HD format, otherwise, you might as well stick with your regular DVD player. Which continues to sound like a great idea.

 

[Jimmyjames]

From working in the compter section in an electronics store at the time and all of the people looking for computers with CD-ROM drives just to play this Myst things. I mean specifically asking for it.

He's right about that. Myst is pretty widely credited with helping push the CD-Rom market, just as Doom is credited as pushing the 486 chipset.

 

[Mushroomjay]

Well, how long has DVD been around? 1995? Somewhere around there? it took quite a while, I believe only in 2003 or 2004, hell maybe even later did they start ditching CD's for DVD's.

Most likely in 2015+ Blu-Ray will start being tacked into optical disc storage mediums.

Of course by then we'll all be using Blatantly Superior Uber Disc that supports up to 5640p to watch our movies and play our Play Station 4 games.

 

[KurtNiisan]

I believe this is the time when I say "read 'em and weep, boys" ^^

http://www.engadget.com/2008/01/07/paramount-following-warner-out-the-hd-dvd-door/

Ooh, I feel so happy and tingly all over. I may get my copy of "Transformers" on BD afterall

 

[StonedRaider]

HD-DVD? Can't we just stick with the DVD format for another 5 years or so? Untill all the new formats are way cheaper?

^^ if no1 pays for the format, the price wouldn't go down as much as if we all join in...
Waiting five years would doom the format.
BUT <3 blu-ray, i hope it will come at a good price in about 1 - 2 years .
Everygame will be just 1 BD no more fucking around with 2 - 5 dvd's

 

[SilentHunter7]

PC Games didn't really start making the shift over to DVD until games started needing 5-6 CDs to install. It will defiantly be several more years until you see PC games looking for a new medium and by then I imagine most companies will have moved to digital download.

I cant imagine trying to DD a game that needs more than 2 DVDs, unless typical internet connections become radically faster, ie the next broadband.

 

[Girlysprite]

All the download services are nice, and I sometimes use the movie on demand options from my cable provider. But next to that, I also like to have disks in a box, with a pretty cover. I like to have something physical, with all the silly extra's that I never watch ( ). I also have the feeling that I wouldn't be the only one to think about it like this, and that would be quite in the way for download movies.

 

[ShmenonPie]

How long do you all think it will take for PC games to start being released on Blu-ray discs. I would imagine it will take about two to three years for the drives to really make a dent in the pc market (Personally I am just waiting for writeable blu-ray media more than anything else.) so I would guess that the first pc titles to come out on blu-ray media would take another year or so after that to become visible in any capacity. Thoughts?

There is already writeable and rewritable BluRay discs and drives, you can get them built in on more expensive (AlienWare I know about) computers, it's just that what good are they if nobody else has a BluRay drive to see what you've put on the disc? I agree that HDDVD is dead though, and I think Blu Ray is far superior anyway.