The next gaming crash: Do you see the signs?

[ubersyanyde]

I think this is more of an evolution of gaming than another crash, so here's what I think is happening:

It's no doubt that console oriented gaming has been declining recently which has cause many, including myself, to switch to the PC which has caused a huge rise in digital sales and a drop in in-store sales. This rise in digital downloads have caused game companies to become more aware of how piracy can affect their sales, therefore DRM and multiple cock ups in how it is instated (see Ubisoft). This is just a bit of a rough transition to a 'new era' of gaming. As for the ME3 thing and the picture you posted, shit happens and EA can suck a fat one.

I think gaming as far too big an industry now to just crash like it did pre-Nintendo.

 

[Eveonline100]

There is an exactly 0% chance that there will be another gaming crash.

There is 100% chance, actually.
Whether we see it in our lifetime or not, is debatable.

The more timely question: Who will stay and who will fall?
Because it looks like the winds of change are upon the Publishers yet again.

The only thing that could possibly cause another gaming crash would be the downfall of modern technology as a whole. I.e. - a scenario of apocalyptic proportions.

As for who stays and who goes, that's an extremely tough question. I'm not sure about Sony and Microsoft's survivability in the console market, but I don't see Nintendo going anywhere in my lifetime. As for publishers... there could be some shakeups. EA and Ubisoft are hemorrhaging money at the moment, while companies like Capcom and Konami are rapidly losing customer loyalty. Activision seems to be the most well off at the moment, and as long as they have COD I think that will continue. Time will tell, I suppose.

the way i see is this is what could happen based on my current knowalage of the game industry. Microsoft and sony are staying(depending how well they handle he change it could either be a disateours period for them or a great time for them) EA and Ubisoft they may be making bad desections but they still have a lot of assets they could sell off and have other things they can do in desperation to save themselves (if they did they'll be hurt but not out) capcom and Konami well they have all the problems EA has and a have shot themselves in the foot with there customer base so i feel as though them declaring bankrupcety is going to happen in my life time.

 

[gigastar]

It can't happen.

The old crash was due to people not buying crappy games with zero innovation and little motivation to be creative.

These days, people will buy them in the boat-load.

No... The old crash was also caused in part of Atari's failure to secure a liscensing policy for its most successful home consoles, leading to non-gaming companies literally creating adverts and selling them as games.

There was also the lack of a widespread game reviewer or gaming news service, either of which would have been instrumental in shutting down the first crash had they existed then.

And finally, Atari themselves. They cornered the home console market, literally undersold every other competitor to get ahead. Then what you brought up happened, zero innovation. There were no new games, just ports and remakes. Then what i mentioned first happened, then everything was buried in shovelware and adverts.

Atari collapsed for the first time shortly after that, because it relied on its first-party games to cut a profit. Thier games were not selling, and due to the liscensing failure, everybody and thier grandmother could publish to their current consoles for free.

And of course, when the only dominant force in the market died, you suddenly have a blackout. Its not helped by the fact that the mainsteam media came along at this point saying that gaming was dead.

That was the crash.

Then 2 years later, an unknown company from Japan called Nintendo came along with its new console called the Nintendo Entertainment System with a really fun 2D platformer game. I assume you know the rest.

 

[Kargathia]

Oh you people and your apocalypse wet dreams, just go watch some porn will you.
What you see is the circle of life, all good things come to an end, meanwhile others sprout all around us.

But it's so much more amusing when those good things come to an end with lots and lots of internet drama!

On a slightly more serious note: we do seem to be in the middle of a series of massive changes in entertainment as a whole - mostly fuelled by the exponential increase of connectivity as offered by the internet. Piracy, consumer's rights and privacy, pricing concerns (including DLC), kickstarter: all these things are indicators of the times being a-changing.

Sadly not a full-blown apocalypse, but it'll certainly be interesting to watch.

 

[Fappy]

The main point missing from your argument is the historical connection to the original and ONLY recorded video game "crash" in history. If you can draw some parallel's you'd have a more compelling point. I honestly don't see a crash coming anytime soon, but we are in the process of a massive paradigm shift. I suspect by the time the next console gen starts we are going to be looking at a completely different industry.

 

[Glademaster_v1legacy]

No just some companies like Capcom need to get their act together.

 

[The Lunatic]

That was the crash.

I know, I studied it at college.

But, it's not nearly as witty as my rendition.

 

[XMark]

I think we're going to see publishers and brick-and-mortar gaming retailers take massive revenue hits because of the rise of direct digital purchases, but gaming as a whole is going to get really awesome.

There may be a game developer revolution on the horizon, where publishers are reduced to a more subservient role and the devs call the shots.

That may just be wishful thinking though...

 

[RaikuFA]

No doubt things are being dragged through a rough patch at the moment.

Also i dont trust that "Things wrong with Capcom" image. I saw a previous version and it was throwing shit as Asura's Wrath just for including QTE's and Dragons Dogma for being what its author defined as a Monster Hunter clone. And its still listing "Developed by Ninja Theory" as something wrong with DmC.

And stating that Dan being killed off as something wrong with SFxT, i can think of a number of better things wrong with SFxT but that is the marker of a severely butthurt fanboy at the photoshop editor.

EDIT: Recalling more details from the image i remembered.

Resident Evil: Operation Raccoon City. Calls it a Gears of War clone. Obviously with the benefit of hindsight its less that than it is a third person shooter based on Left 4 Dead only with the diffculty knob cranked up then ripped out. And a more traditional multiplayer.

Dead Rising 2: Off the Record was implicated for what the author saw as a Dead Rising 2 with Frank West in it instead, taking no note of the full extent of changes to the actual game.

HD remakes, all of them, for simply being HD remakes.

Most of it was just complaints but the legit stuff(refusing to localize, canning games etc.)... Ho-lee shit is that company stupid.

 

[gigastar]

snip

Most of it was just complaints but the legit stuff(refusing to localize, canning games etc.)... Ho-lee shit is that company stupid.

Oh dont mistake for a second that im defending Capcoms actions. Im only attacking the validity of that image. And im inclined to add lack of promotion for new IP's to the list too, because seriously have you seen any advertisement for either Asura's Wrath or Dragons Dogma that was not on a Capcom website or a trailer posted on any forum?

 

[AbstractStream]

No plans to localize Miles Edgeworth 2? MADNESS!!
Why Capcom?!

 

[RaikuFA]

snip

Most of it was just complaints but the legit stuff(refusing to localize, canning games etc.)... Ho-lee shit is that company stupid.

Oh dont mistake for a second that im defending Capcoms actions. Im only attacking the validity of that image. And im inclined to add lack of promotion for new IP's to the list too, because seriously have you seen any advertisement for either Asura's Wrath or Dragons Dogma that was not on a Capcom website or a trailer posted on any forum?

Hell no. Also thery blame AAI2 localization on how AAI sold worse than Okamiden, yet I couldn't find AAI anywhere except at 1 out of the 6 Gamestops in my area. Yet I found Okamiden at every game selling store including Wal-Mart.

 

[Bvenged]

I think we're at the fork in the road that we shouldn't have come to, and everybody's to blame. We can start pulling shit together and get this industry rolling again... and by that I mean by PLEASING the consumers, not rattling them as publishers are doing now; and consumers need to take a foot out of their arse and stop wasting money on products just to complain about.

Or we can keep doing what we do now, and publishers push consumers too far (and consumers let them) making the whole industry collapse in a massive depression created by the seemingly unstoppable boom we're concluding from less creativity, rising prices, less convenience and more costly (and arguably, required) tat.

 

[Manji187]

There is an exactly 0% chance that there will be another gaming crash.

I wish people would stop bringing this topic up. The conditions that led to the crash in the early 80s CAN NOT repeat themselves these days. It's not possible.

I hope you're not working in the financial industry. By the same logic the 2008 global financial crisis couldn't have happened becaused the crash in 1987 can't repeat itself in the exact same fashion. Ever considered that crashes/ crises can emerge under different conditions?

I am NOT saying that there definitely will be a crash/ crisis. I am saying your logic is flawed.

 

[Lunar Templar]

There is an exactly 0% chance that there will be another gaming crash.

There is 100% chance, actually.
Whether we see it in our lifetime or not, is debatable.

The more timely question: Who will stay and who will fall?
Because it looks like the winds of change are upon the Publishers yet again.

The only thing that could possibly cause another gaming crash would be the downfall of modern technology as a whole. I.e. - a scenario of apocalyptic proportions.

As for who stays and who goes, that's an extremely tough question. I'm not sure about Sony and Microsoft's survivability in the console market, but I don't see Nintendo going anywhere in my lifetime. As for publishers... there could be some shakeups. EA and Ubisoft are hemorrhaging money at the moment, while companies like Capcom and Konami are rapidly losing customer loyalty. Activision seems to be the most well off at the moment, and as long as they have COD I think that will continue. Time will tell, I suppose.

Activsion also has Blizzard, which means WoW, so they are in no real danger if a crash happen. though personally wouldn't mind it, trim a lot of the fat, and i have enough games back logged i could just drive back in those and never notice it

 

[boag]

Considering that recently the gaming industry just outstripped the film industry, probably not.

CITATION NEEDED

I keep hearing this, but I have seen nothing, would you care to provide a link?

 

[Space Spoons]

As long as they keep pumping out Mario, Zelda, Call of Duty and Grand Theft Auto games, gaming will never crash again. Gamers don't have the self-control to stop buying games, even when they want to make a point. Look no further than any gaming-related boycott ever for evidence of the fact.

 

[the_pleasure_is_mine]

The decline of good business practices isn't a problem for me. The decline of writing in videogames, is.

Pretty much this.

There's always been shoddy business decisions, but this disappointment that seems to come prepackaged with nearly every game these days is downright depression, maybe all the good writers are jumping ship since writing seems like a much more promising business, even if you're not very good at it [http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=twilight%20saga&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CDYQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.stepheniemeyer.com%2Ftwilightseries.html&ei=rBVyT6CUNIb68QPYxpBY&usg=AFQjCNEkCN_zemgrl-gTu2PsuPTr_F7ecw]...

 

[putowtin]

Game going bust was due to number of different reasons (not closing un-needed stores, over priced games, etc)

Yes it's a pain that the main place to buy games on the high street is gone, but that doesn't mean all UK gamers are suddenly gonna stop buying games!