gh0ti said:
Oh and just a minor edit:
"Without the threat of war, the UK wouldn't have elected Churchill (Ho no no no!) and opted not to go to war to start with. The US had their own problems coming out of the depression, and would be pushing ahead with their war against the Japanese."
Churchill wasn't elected, he was chosen by the incumbent PM, Chamberlain, as successor. The war had already been going on for six months.
Bleurgh, I wasn't alive then. However, without Churchill (who was an awful peace time leader), we wouldn't have entered the war as our troops were pitiful at that point.
As for the Iroquois federation, that's reasonably easy to foresee. Without the increase in land, most of Europe would have no where to run from their incumbent patriarch figures and they'd still know of America's great wealth. The Spaniards and the French would have gone back in, as the English tended to see it just as a colony.
This time, there would be savage reprisals from the Spanish with Christian conversions from the French while England pirated the remains and the Dutch would try for closer shores.
So, England would become more isolationist, strike back harder with the Empire, possibly even taking France (Spain would be too hard to keep due to the heat). The Northern French America would be the new Canada, and the Southern Spanish America would be crushed through sheer weight of numbers. The Dutch would have all the traffic from the Far East though.
Possible 2009 effect: The Netherlands owns the European ceasefire with England as the strong military might. France is New England, Spanish refugees are attempting to cross into France from their starved country while the Imperialist New France uses Radio to teach non-Christians of their folly. New Spain in South America are dealing with massive internal wars and the few Native Americans hide their nationality in fear.