Higgs303 said:
They knew that Japanese Navy had no fighting force capable of engaging their naval blockade, they knew the Japanese airfore now consisted of Kamikaze planes strictly held in reserve for an amphibious invasion in the southern mainland. They knew Japan did not have enough fuel to keep either of these rag-tag fighting forces operational. They estimated that Japan only possessed enough ammunition to properly equip two thirds of their home defense forces (it was actually much less). The US naval blockade prevented any shipment of fuel, weapons or ammo to Japanese forces and the the US bombing campaigns crushed the means to manufacture these commodities in any significant quatity. That sounds like a highly effective blockade.
What specific blockades on the European Front? The Blockade of Germany was a vast series of operations which evolved over the entire course war. The blockades of Japan and Germany are so vastly different in scale, trimeframe and geography that there is little point in comparing the two.
At no point was Great Britian ever subjected to a blockade by sea. The Royal Navy and Royal Airforce was operational throughout the entire war. Shipping lanes to the UK, while contantly challenged by Axis naval forces were never completely cut off.
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An army cannot fight for long if it doesn't eat, no matter how zealous. Nor can they engage an enemy for long if their ammunition supplies are at a breaking point. The fact that Japan was mobilizing the elderly, women and children armed only with farming intruments shows how desperate the situation in the mainland actually was. Even Germany's Volkstrum was issued firearms...
The Kamikaze planes were held in reserve to engage an invasion force. Japan would have most likely capitulated before any invasion force had even assembled.
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Japan had captured roughly 27,000 Americans throughout all campaigns in WW2. The bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki resulted in the deaths of 135,000 Japanese citizens within the first few days alone. I do not have the figure which states the total number of Allied POWs held by the Japanese in the summer of 1945, but in my opinion 135,000 civilian deaths is unacceptable collateral damage to secure the safety of what is presumably a much smaller number of men who are only potentially at risk of being murdered or starved by their Japanese guards.
US forces in the Pacific remained mobilized long after Japan formally surrendered, years afterwards deploying throughout China and Korea. I really doubt the cost of several more weeks or months was a significant factor for US military strategists.
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I would think potential famine would be a huge motivating factor for a government already seeking peace. It would also be a huge motivating factor to silence or eliminate any remaining hardliners. Even if the US allowed food and medical supplies to pass through the blockade (I believe they did to some extent) so as to prevent a humanitarian crisis, it would only be a matter of time before enough factions wish to return to modern civilization.
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The Americans would have been able to secure unconditional surrender over Japan had they just waited them out, the difference being that the Soviets would have been at the table as well, probably using an occupation zone in mainland Japan or the entire Korean pennisula as a bargaining chip, just as in Germany.
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The Allies had stepped well beyond the Potsdam agreement in Germany, it is not a stretch to assume that the Soviets would have done the same in East-Asia if given the chance. The Potsdam agreement was not followed to the letter by both East or West.
The Soviets had devised operational plans to secure the northern half of Hokkaido. They did in fact have sea faring capabilites in the Pacific, indeed far less than the US. However, they would not have needed to land an entire invasion force in Hokkaido. Even a foothold on the mainland would have most likely secured Stalin an occupation zone in Japan. Almost all of Japan`s defense forces were positioned in Southern Japan, waiting for the US invasion. The Soviets would not have had to deal with the Japanese Navy or Airforce in any significant strength. Additionally, only several ground divsions were positioned in the north at the time, little resistance for seasoned Soviet veterans.
It is true that the Chinese Communists won the civil war, but the US sent a large number of men and supplies in an attempt to prevent such an outcome during and after the war. If there had been no Western intervention available, perhaps Taiwan would not exist today. If the US was unable to intervene in South Korea, the entire pennisula would have been under Soviet influence without a doubt. As far as I know, the 38th parallel was not specifically agreed upon at Potsdam. The US rather quickly deployed troops to South Korea after learning just how quickly the Soviets were taking territory. If the Soviets had managed to secure an occupation zone in Japan, the liklihood of an indepedent socialist state forming, similar to East Germany or North Korea, would have been much higher. Nuking Japan secured a more-or-less unilateral and immediate victory, allowing the US to prevent these outcomes.
If they thought that the Japanese were a defeated force in mid 1945, then why were the Allies rushing troops from Europe to Japan shortly after V-E Day?
Look, the Allies did not know how well the Japanese Armed Forces were faring up, it was entirely Retroactive the declarations that they would have surrendered with merely continued blockade after they were occupying the country. The intelligence the Allies collected on Japan was from 20'000 feet with cameras, not on the ground. It was the combination of Air-dropped sea-mines and the U-Boat campaign. But this was no "humane" act, unrestricted warfare on all shipping including civilians, explosive mine that persist decades after the war, starving an entire nation would lead to hundreds of thousands of people dying. The study of the effect of radiation on the population of Hiroshima and Nagasaki has been greatly disrupted by how malnutrition was affecting the population in such extremes.
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Japan had its own agriculture. For hundreds of years the country was extremely isolationist with virtually no overseas trade. Japan had the internal capacity to feed its army and its army would be fed but at the expense of the population, as happened in Germany the guys with the guns and the authority of their uniforms took the food they "needed" and tough luck to those who didn't. Don't doubt that many would resort to cannibalism when you force an entire nation to extremes, the problem was not that Japan had a shortage of food, it had great internal food production, the problem was too many people, the Army just gets fed first.
Yes, so many Kamikaze planes were held in reserve, this is why the Allies did not want to have to deal with. What makes you think they would hold these Kamikaze planes in reserve with intent to use them only to capitulate when their appointed time comes to attack the invading army?
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I did say ALL allied POWs which included British and other Allied nations' forces.
Approximately 80'600 Allied prisoners were released by Japan when it surrendered but the Allies excepted far more to be released as.
And these people were not dying in sudden explosions, they suffered long tortuous demise in horrific cruelty. They weren't soldiers any more, they weren't armed men fighting, they were prisoners, utterly helpless.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/bataan/peopleevents/e_atrocities.html
And it was not just Allied prisoners who were suffering but also the people of the occupied territories where atrocities were ongoing and severe.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_war_crimes
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You WOULD think impending famine would be a huge motivating factor for the Japanese to surrender, but in August 1945 the Japanese gave no explicit intention to surrender, the military were in control weren't going to give up even if The Emperor wanted peace the army did not want to give a bit of ground.
Any food and medical supplies let through the blockade would go the the army first and likely the army ONLY.
Japan wasn't going to return to modern civilisation, it had essentially emerged straight from medieval feudalism to modern society. It had modern technology like repeating rifles, planes and steel ships and high explosives but they were still in a Medieval mindset. The case with Nazi Germany and other fascist states was that it wanted to return to the brutal age of the Teutonic Knights, Japan hadn't really ever left that by 1930's, it still clung to a warrior ideology and unlike Europe and America that had in 18th and 19th century developed ideas such as humanitarian surrender and restraint on prisoners, Japan had given only token gestures signing the Geneva conventions to be included when it suited them but drop it as soon as it didn't suit them.
"The Americans would have been able to secure unconditional surrender over Japan had they just waited them out"
I think we have established that waiting was not an option. Wait and see attitudes don't work and no, it is utterly false that the Soviets would have had extra influence had the Allies waited, THE WESTERN ALLIES INVITED THE SOVIETS IN!! The Potsdam treaty invited the Soviets to take care of Japan on mainland Asia and the Soviets didn't want ANY MORE than Japan and Korea down to the 38th Parallel, not till 1950. China became a Communist ally of the Soviets. No way, even waiting till 1946 would any part of Japan have come under Soviet Sphere of influence especially when they had pretty much all of China.
No. Read the facts. It was all agreed in advance that the USSR would get China and Korea down to 38th Parallel and nothing was going to change that.
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Yes, the western allies extended well beyond the agreed demarcation of the the division of Germany, and when the deadline came they dutifully withdrew without any Mexican standoffs. Russia also over extended and moved back without a fuss to their demarcation line. The Agreements were followed to the letter in terms of "spheres of influence".
A Soviet invasion of Hokkaido was highly speculative. You think the Western Allies who had such extensive naval forces in the region and had been planning for years and Invasion of Japan who were so cautious, you think the Soviets could just roll up and secure a beachhead in a few months? D-Day which was a MUCH SIMPLER operation than X-Day (invasion of Japan) took years of preparation and planning. The soviets had few ships, little experience in Naval warfare especially against planes and ESPECIALLY against Kamikaze bombers. Who says they could even make it to Hokkido? Who says they could supply them? They were to be without their principal advantages they had in the fighting they had just endured of massed tank and artillery and close air-support. They didn't have any aircraft carriers, they had short range fighters that would have struggled to make the 400km round trip and fight effectively.
Look, Soviets had bigger fish to fry than the pipe dream of Hokkido, they were occupied with pretty much all of the vast country of China, in a de-facto-war with Chiang Kai-shek in support of communism. The Soviets took Sakhalin and that didn't get them any control of Japan. They were able to take Sakhalin as they already had a foothold on north Sakhalin, but an amphibious invasion these experts fighters would be amateurs. They had no way of getting the vast number of tanks across that they needed.
The Republic Of China exist because there was water between the island of Taiwan and mainland China. Soviets didn't want it in the WWII talks on which countries should be "managed" and they couldn't take it later when they did want it.
"If the US was unable to intervene in South Korea, the entire pennisula would have been under Soviet influence without a doubt."
Spurious. There was no need to rush American troops to the 38th Parallel, the Soviets stayed on their side. Yes the Americans rushed to South Korea as it was their responsibility to manage Korea south of 38th Parallel.
Look, you seem utterly intent with this crazy idea that America only used Atomic bombs out of fear of communism.
No, They used The Bomb out of fear of Japanese Imperialism, not fear of their soviet ally. This is what was pressing on their minds: