Why the Nintendo Switch will Fail (and fail hard)

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votemarvel

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Joccaren said:
Actually, Sony and MS have kind of shot themselves in the foot here. The PS4/Xbone upgrades are, essentially, something devs don't want. All games that run on them must also run on the normal PS4/Xbone, just so its easy to use for Microsoft/Sony's customers; if I have an Xbone, I can play all Xbone games. This means that devs have to create that lower level to begin with, and its a question of whether its worth it to create the upgraded level or not, which a lot of the time it probably won't be as I'm seeing poor adoption rates for a console that is trying to be a PC, with all the detriments, but none of the real benefits.
I give it six months to a year before we see the first Xbox Scorpio exclusive, one that won't play on a base Xbox One.

There is little point to boosting the power of the system if the only thing it is going to get is higher resolutions.

However the point remains. Even if all the Scorpio does get are the same games with higher resolution and textures, that is still one step down for the One and then likely another for the Switch.

Skyrim is hardly the most taxing game, it can run decently on Intel HD graphics after all. If the version the Switch gets (which isn't yet confirmed) is the Special Edition, well that's still a 6 year old game with a HD polish and I'd be surprised if the Switch couldn't run it.
 

Fonejackerjon

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Developers promised support for the WiiU and that dried up within less than a year. Look I don't want to sound like a prophet of doom but there is no chance this will suceed, Its also exactly like the Wii U It's not new its not innovative. Its basically a tablet that can hook up to a HDTV there are loads of examples of this.

In terms of power, it will be a mobile powered unit. The increase in mobile tech is going at an astronomical rate. Next year there will be smartphones with 8gb ram! and Octacore processors, that is unbelievable! by 2018 this unit will be outperformed by the next wave of smartphones, that's just the way the market is.

Look how pathetic in terms of power the 3DS and vita look compared to a Samsung galaxy S7 and the upcoming 8, the screen and power of there mobile devices are light years ahead of the dedicated potable consoles, and it will be the same as the Switch, Its a mobile processing unit that will be obsolete on about a year after its release.
 

Fonejackerjon

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09philj said:
Bullshit.

The library is looking large, and it's a versatile machine. If they play their cards right it'll sell gangbusters.
The 'library is looking large' what are you basing that on? a 6 year old game HD remake of skyrim, Zelda and Mario?
 

Elvis Starburst

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Johnny Novgorod said:
Elvis Starburst said:
It's creating a gaming format that isn't really there.
The question immediately being, is there a market for it?
That's the big business question right there. We'll just have to see. If Nintendo and the third parties bring out good stuff, I'd say so
 

09philj

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Fonejackerjon said:
Developers promised support for the WiiU and that dried up within less than a year. Look I don't want to sound like a prophet of doom but there is no chance this will suceed, Its also exactly like the Wii U It's not new its not innovative. Its basically a tablet that can hook up to a HDTV there are loads of examples of this.

In terms of power, it will be a mobile powered unit. The increase in mobile tech is going at an astronomical rate. Next year there will be smartphones with 8gb ram! and Octacore processors, that is unbelievable! by 2018 this unit will be outperformed by the next wave of smartphones, that's just the way the market is.

Look how pathetic in terms of power the 3DS and vita look compared to a Samsung galaxy S7 and the upcoming 8, the screen and power of there mobile devices are light years ahead of the dedicated potable consoles, and it will be the same as the Switch, Its a mobile processing unit that will be obsolete on about a year after its release.
Look at all the great games there are on mobile.

Oh wait, my mistake, they're all shite. Software, sells hardware, not the other way round.
 

Silvanus

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Fonejackerjon said:
Its basically a tablet that can hook up to a HDTV there are loads of examples of this.
That's nonsense. There's the Playstation TV, which couldn't play home console games, and was discontinued last year. That's the only thing even remotely analogous.

Fonejackerjon said:
by 2018 this unit will be outperformed by the next wave of smartphones, that's just the way the market is.
Oh! Is that why smartphones are currently able to play PS4 & Xbox One games?
 

Blitsie

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Saelune said:
I stopped reading at "portable gaming is dead".

You know Pokemon is coming out like, super soon, right?
And using the Vita as an example, yeugh. Like the overpriced memory cards, way too few AAA first party games and Sony dropping support very early on weren't one of the main reasons the thing bombed. Not at all, its entirely because the portable gaming market is dead people! Pokemon Sun/Moon is going to bomb! Nintendo is going to bomb! Bombs I say!

On a more serious note though, no. No I don't think its going to fail. Splatoon alone most probably already guaranteed its success in Japan and the next Zelda, which looks rocking and has a ton of people excited too I bet, being a launch title will definitely have it sell quite a significant amount of units I bet. Ninty also has a ton of awesome IPs it can throw onto the console. Ultimately I feel the opportunity for success is in their hands, they just have to effectively utilize it.
 

Burnsidhe

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If the Nintendo Switch fails, it will be because it competes with the 3DS but cannot play 3DS games. Since the Switch can't play 3DS cartridges, 3DS gamers will not be interested in it. And as we've seen, the 3DS is the best selling handheld of all time.

The Switch can't compete with laptop gaming. Period. It has a Nintendo OS and therefore can't run games from Steam, GOG, or any other software distribution platform. It can't compete with PC gaming either, for the same reason. It definitely can't run games for the XBox or PlayStation.
 
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Fonejackerjon said:
Oh oh, can I get in on the speculation too?

Console gaming is dead, why are they even making an upgraded PS4 and Xbone, I mean, most of the people I know never bothered to get a next gen console and most of the ones that did are regretting their purchase. Besides, people are getting really fed up with install issues, no controller flexibility, crappy interface, and pay-to-go-online with barely functional online services.

Srsly, this gen is the last shout for console gaming, everyone's moving to PC now, dontcha know! It has even better graphical fidelity, more control options, superior mouse aiming, no need to pay the console maker for the privilege of going online, and with Steam/GoG/etc installing can be done nice and simple, and mods, mods for all the things!

There is no place for a dedicated weaksauce, non-upgradeable PC you plug into your TV anymore!

So yeah, man, I don't know why anyone is excited about any new consoles because console gaming is dead. Everyone either wants the TRUE AAA experience on PC (as well as easier to access to indie games) or casual minigames on their mobile phones!

Burnsidhe said:
If the Nintendo Switch fails, it will be because it competes with the 3DS but cannot play 3DS games. Since the Switch can't play 3DS cartridges, 3DS gamers will not be interested in it. And as we've seen, the 3DS is the best selling handheld of all time.
Yeah, this is my concern too.

The 3DS has tapped into a heck of a market, and I wonder if Nintendo aren't setting themselves up for a fall by competing against themselves.
 

Amigastar

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I have the feeling that it will be a success. Nintendo made the right decision with making the Switch (which looks really sexy to me) as small as possible for a Homeconsole. This reaches into the future where processing power will be so strong that consoles won't be bigger than Smartphones.
 

TheMysteriousGX

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If you argue Nintendo is dying for long enough, you will eventually be correct.

Been hearing this style of argument for every Nintendo console and handheld since the Super Nintendo. (The Sega Genesis out performing the Super Nintendo gave SEGA a higher market share than Nintendo for some time)
 

Joccaren

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votemarvel said:
I give it six months to a year before we see the first Xbox Scorpio exclusive, one that won't play on a base Xbox One.

There is little point to boosting the power of the system if the only thing it is going to get is higher resolutions.

However the point remains. Even if all the Scorpio does get are the same games with higher resolution and textures, that is still one step down for the One and then likely another for the Switch.

Skyrim is hardly the most taxing game, it can run decently on Intel HD graphics after all. If the version the Switch gets (which isn't yet confirmed) is the Special Edition, well that's still a 6 year old game with a HD polish and I'd be surprised if the Switch couldn't run it.
You mean the First Xbox One S exclusive - There is no console called the Scorpio. And this makes it quite confusing and difficult to make exclusives. This also assumes that MS allows publishing of a One S exclusive, and doesn't enforce a game running on both systems - where AFAIK they've said they'd do the opposite. Its actually far more likely the One S and PS+ simply won't get a lot of developer traction, as they are unlikely to sell that well [The One and PS4 are only 3 years old after all, the idea of consoles is not to keep buying one every 2 years to stay up to date, and the last gen lasted 8ish or more, which is what people are used to now], so they won't have the userbase to drive sales, and they'll have a bunch of silly rules attached to them that'll make them undesirable to develop for - like the necessity to have the game work on the previous gen still.

Make no mistake, even with the One S and PS+, the benchmark for console performance will still be the vanilla One and PS4. There simply aren't enough benefits for people from the new console offerings from MS/Sony to really push sales, and they're not going to get any system-selling games while MS and Sony insist on the games also running on the basic versions of the consoles.

Additionally, if people really did want better performance, higher resolutions, and better graphics - they'd go PC. Especially these days with consoles taking all the downfalls of PC gaming, with few of the benefits. People aren't always rational, but they're not completely stupid either.

We're not looking at one step down for the One, then another for the Switch. That assumes the devs would be looking at the One S as the primary development platform and working from there. What PC gaming has taught us is this will not be the case. The devs will look at the basic One as the primary platform, MAYBE take the step up to the One S if it gets a large enough user base, and if the Switch is even somewhat comparable to the One, maybe making some small modifications to get the game to run on that - like they do with the Xbone to PS4, or the 360 to PS3. Of course, how willing they'll be depends on the console's specs, but the One S and PS+ won't be the new benchmark. They'd need mainstream staying power and widespread appeal for that. The resounding reaction I've seen to them, however, has been "Meh, I don't even own a 4K TV". They'll be a niche product, and will be treated as such by developers. As much as you say there isn't much point to upgrading a console just for higher resolutions - and I, and most people, agree - that is what MS and Sony seem to have been going for, possibly crossed with VR performance increases. Its what they've been advertising them as, and what they've talked about the big difference between them and the previous gen being. They seem to think that is enough to sell a console, while most of us are sitting here going "I see no benefit to this".

As for Skyrim... Maybe not the most taxing game, but it is optimised like a dog, and GPU measures aren't the only ones that matter. CPU speed and usable RAM are likely to be as important, if not more so, for running games. Especially if it is running the updated edition - which, lets be honest, it likely is as I don't see Bethesda remaking the base Skyrim again just for the Switch; they probably just took their updated Skyrim they were making, and made it compatible with the Switch. This shows that devs designing for the One and PS4, are able to reasonably easily port their games to the Switch - at least in this example. This is a big important part of getting games onto the Switch. We don't know its capabilities yet. I don't think it'll quite match the One or 4, but it'll likely be close enough to not be completely outcast - especially so early in the cycle of the Consoles where you're not optimising to hell and back trying to squeeze every ounce of juice out of a dying machine. It remains to be seen just what the Switch will do, and how easy to develop for it is, but at present I wouldn't just write it out of the running. It seems to be the next gen console that has garnered the most interest out of gamers in general, and not for bad reasons - and that's a good sign. We'll just have to see if Nintendo has pulled off the execution as well as the theory.
 

totheendofsin

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Fonejackerjon said:
Developers promised support for the WiiU and that dried up within less than a year. Look I don't want to sound like a prophet of doom but there is no chance this will suceed, Its also exactly like the Wii U It's not new its not innovative. Its basically a tablet that can hook up to a HDTV there are loads of examples of this.

In terms of power, it will be a mobile powered unit. The increase in mobile tech is going at an astronomical rate. Next year there will be smartphones with 8gb ram! and Octacore processors, that is unbelievable! by 2018 this unit will be outperformed by the next wave of smartphones, that's just the way the market is.

Look how pathetic in terms of power the 3DS and vita look compared to a Samsung galaxy S7 and the upcoming 8, the screen and power of there mobile devices are light years ahead of the dedicated potable consoles, and it will be the same as the Switch, Its a mobile processing unit that will be obsolete on about a year after its release.
so you think a system that is AT THE VERY LEAST as powerful as the Wii U (this is easy to infer as it's going to have Breath of the Wild, a Wii U title on it) is going to be comparable in power to tablets and phones, what the fuck kind of tablets and phones are you looking at?
 

Yopaz

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Fonejackerjon said:
Hades said:
Until mobile games can hold a candle to 3DS or even gameboy advance games as a rule rather than exception I'm not inclined to believe portable gaming is dead. A gamer who makes a complete switch from 3DS to mobile is akin to a man who always goes to famous restourants before suddenly deciding to only eat at McDonald from that point on.

Portable gaming also ensures a happy home for developers who don't have the funds for console AAA gaming or who want to dabble in smaller projects.
The walking dead, modern combat, broken sword and several other mobile games are far superior in terms of graphic and screen quality on mobile than their dedicated mobile console counterparts and its only going to get better and better.
Well the game I have played the most lately is Monster Hunter Generations and while graphics are nice it's not the most important thing. Controller support is the most important thing. For controllers to work that well the game has to be designed specifically for a certain controller. The need to shop around for a specific controller that will work with your phone and then the need to work with the games you want to play is more than most want to go through. That in turn doesn't invite developers to make the quality games that phones could support. The 3DS is most likely weaker than many of the popular phones out there, yet it got a lot more solid long lasting game experiences than you'll find on smart phones.


Elvis Starburst said:
Edit: The Vita also failed because of...
- Over priced memory cards
- Near AAA graphics for companies without the budget to handle it, so being able to afford to use all of the Vita's power was tough to do
- Lack of marketing from Sony
- Lack of support and AAA titles from Sony
- Sony not making efforts to improve the above. They announced not too long ago that they have pulled almost all first party support from it. You tell me what that means
I love the Vita so much... which is why I find Sony's handling of it to be quite depressing. They released a new version of the Vita to address the charger, changing it to micro USB, which was a welcome change, but still not considering the most important complaint there was. The fucking memory cards. They even discontinued the 32 GB memory cards in Europe and never released the biggest memory cards outside of Japan. When they released their new version of the Vita with built in storage space they also made the huge bummer that you had to choose, either use internal storage or memory card. Seriously, what were they thinking? The Vita was a good console that failed because Sony couldn't be assed to give it their effort.

OT: As someone who is the target group for this console (spend a lot of time on the bus and at places other than home) I hope this will be successful, but as some have already said it's useless to speculate. It all comes down to how well the execute it. The 3DS is an example that it can succeed, the Vita is an example that it can fail and let's face it, smart phones are nowhere near of competing for the same audience. They are convenient for lots of things, but they aren't good gaming devices.
 

votemarvel

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Joccaren said:
You mean the First Xbox One S exclusive
No I mean the Scorpio. I find it somewhat odd that you've never heard of the machine as it was announced right after the Xbox One S, and should be arriving sometime next year.

Microsoft claim that all games, excluding VR titles, that run on the Scorpio will also run on the base Xbox One. Like I said, I give it 6 to 12 months after its release before the first Scorpio exclusive titles hit.

The Xbox One S is more of a hardware revision such as the Xbox 360 to the Xbox 360 Slim.
 

Eclipse Dragon

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aegix drakan said:
Burnsidhe said:
If the Nintendo Switch fails, it will be because it competes with the 3DS but cannot play 3DS games. Since the Switch can't play 3DS cartridges, 3DS gamers will not be interested in it. And as we've seen, the 3DS is the best selling handheld of all time.
Yeah, this is my concern too.

The 3DS has tapped into a heck of a market, and I wonder if Nintendo aren't setting themselves up for a fall by competing against themselves.
Nintendo will just taper off support for the 3DS and transfer it to the Switch (slowly of course), but the march of Pokemon waits for no-one. Especially because bank will inevitably be available on the Switch, leaving little reason to entertain older versions after Sun and Moon.

Don't get me wrong, the 3DS has many years left in it, but this wouldn't be the first time a console dumped its backwards compatibility and still sold well (PS4). Nintendo can now also benefit from the massive catalog of older games they have by combining their handheld and home console storefronts, when previously they were separate. Will they take advantage of that? Who knows.

Even if the Switch fails to attract new adopters, it will justify its existence selling first party franchises alone, but I've already seen a few people who've never played games in their life get pretty excited for this thing and more than a few gamers who dropped Nintendo after the Wii because of gimmicks give it a cautiously optimistic second glance.

----------------
OT: The biggest threat to the Switch won't be Microsoft or Sony or even the PC, it's not even trying to compete. It's basically a powerful handheld that you can plug into a TV. That on its own could be what the console market is craving, after all it was born on the premise that all you needed was to throw the game in and you could play without upgrading, worrying about specs and whether the game will work with your system. Of all the things people criticize Nintendo for being, a "nerfed PC" isn't one of them.

The mobile market could give the Switch a run for its money, but we've been saying that about handhelds for years and so far as I can tell, mobile gaming companies don't give much of a shit about crafting quality experiences, they've found their niche in making addictive games with as little play as possible and lots of microtransactions.

I'm not saying it will be a giant success, it has the potential to be if Nintendo plays their cards right, but ultimately like any other console, it will live or die on its library. The Switch will sell on first party support but third parties will determine how much beyond that it goes.
 

CaitSeith

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All your arguments come from "portable gaming is dead", and your reasoning has been "anyone who wants to play portable plays in smartphone". You're generalizing the mobile market in a big casual audience, and that's a misstatement.

The 3DS has popular game genres that can't be experienced in iPhone and other smartphones at the same quality level without buying extra accessories (i.e. physical controls). Most casual players don't bother in buying such accessories, which gives both to Nintendo 3DS and Nintendo Switch a big advantage over iPhone and other popular smartphones for the aforementioned genres. Smartphones that include gaming accessories have failed because smartphones users usually want a smartphone, not a gaming device with smartphone features (which are more expensive and don't have brand recognition to justify the costs).

tl;dr: The portable gaming is still alive because smartphones offer an inferior/incomplete gaming experience compared to what the Nintendo 3DS users like.
 

CaitSeith

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Ezekiel said:
09philj said:
Software, sells hardware, not the other way round.
It's both ways. Otherwise, Nintendo could stay in the NES era of graphics. I think it's a shame, too. I guess we'll see if most console players give a shit about portables. I know I don't. I would have preferred a bigger device that is more technically capable.
Nintendo didn't stay in the NES because almost everyone who would want a NES already had a NES. Besides, the SNES wasn't just a graphics update, as its new hardware allowed gameplay that was difficult (if not impossible) in the NES (and sometimes in the Sega Genesis/Mega Drive).