Will The Elder Scrolls Online end the same way as Swtor?

[Korten12]

So I read a preview for TESO ( http://massively.joystiq.com/2012/10/22/massivelys-hands-on-with-the-elder-scrolls-online/ ) and it actually sounds pretty fun, and when I looked to see if it had a sub fee, to my dismay, I found that it will indeed have a sub fee.

I feel like it will end the same way as Swtor, lots of promise, but then the name of the game not able to sell players enough. Now granted while TESO is indeed less of a WoW clone then Swtor was, I don't feel the name Elder Scrolls will grab enough people, more so that there are already so many divided on the issue.

Then there is GW2, now I am not saying which game is better (how could I? TESO is still over a year from release, plus they haven't even hit Beta) but now with GW2 hitting high sales and already new content coming out in November, I feel many will look at P2P in a worse light. People will also then wonder why they would play TESO, when they could play GW2, lots of the high quality F2P games now coming out, or just play Skyrim, Morrowind, or Oblivion and just mod the hell out of it and save a lot of money.

Thoughts?

 

[SajuukKhar]

Well, elder scrolls Online is using mega server technology to remove all forms of "shards" so even if the game tanks they wont have to close/merge servers, since everyone plays in the same map anyways.

I don't expect it to last long as a P2P mmo, but when it tanks it wont be as hard as ToR.

 

[Korten12]

Well, elder scrolls Online is using mega server technology to remove all forms of "shards" so even if the game tanks they wont have to close/merge servers, since everyone plays in the same map anyways.

I don't expect it to last long as a P2P mmo, but when it tanks it wont be as hard as ToR.

True, I also doubt it has the same budget which is what allowed ToR to fail so hard...

 

[xefaros]

Since its not by the same creators of the previous ES games and cannot deliver hardly any new innovation yea it gonna tank.The thing that they must not forget is to give a free 10d-trial after the stress of the launch,Rift got my vote that way.
The thing i am afraid about this mmo is that it will ruin the lore of the games and provide the same bag of tricks quest like any mmo and no epic quest as u skip through thousands pages of text meaning nothing to most mmo players.
Most mmo player's mentality is 1)get there first 2)get OP 3)show off 4)cry when someone beat u

 

[WoW Killer]

Just my guess, but it doesn't stand a chance with a subscription. It could be a decent game, but I won't play it with a subscription.

Captcha: "love you"; love you too captcha.

 

[Aerosteam]

I actually think it will, but might last longer before the inevitable change to F2P.

 

[distortedreality]

I don't expect it to last long as a P2P mmo, but when it tanks it wont be as hard as ToR.

Pretty much agree with this.

I'd also wager that sales will be pretty slow for the first week or two, as die hard ES players will be cautious, and there would be only a sprinkling of interest from the more casual market.

I'll be watching on with passing interest, but won't be buying.

 

[The_Lost_King]

Subscription fee? NOPE!! I was willing to try it if it was a f2p but seeing as it is subscrption based I am going to pass on it.

captcha: fade away, yes captcha that is exactly what TESO is going to do.

 

[ohnoitsabear]

Honestly, we still don't know enough about it to judge how well it's going to do. At first, this game was looking like a generic WoW-clone, but now that doesn't appear to be the case. So I really don't know. Personally, I do think it still looks a bit too much like other MMOs and not enough like the Elder Scrolls, but who knows how much that will change.

Still, I can say almost certainly that this game would do better without a subscription fee. I think something more akin to Guild Wars 2's payment method (just buy the game, no sub fee) would work really well. However, it should be noted that Rift has been fairly successful as a subscription game, so it is possible for a subscription game to make money in this day and age. But really, we'll have to wait until it's out to decide for sure.

 

[crazyrabbits]

Could go either way. It's got the brand recognition, the game engine looks vastily superior to TOR, there seem to be a lot of new gameplay mechanics (ultimate attacks, etc.) and the art style/enemy variation looks to be the usual high-quality work.

Downsides: judging from the preview, it looks like Skyrim, apparently plays and feels like Skyrim, and you have to pay a subscription fee every month on top of it. If I wanted that experience, I'd just go play Skyrim w/ mods.

 

[jollybarracuda]

I think the way of subscription fees really only works with WoW now, and its only because they have such a dedicated fanbase that has put so much work into their characters, that to stop paying and lose all that would be difficult. Guild Wars 2 has shown that a quality MMO can survive, and even thrive, without extorting the consumers for $15 a month or whatever subscriptions cost now. I really want TESO to do well, but i highly, highly doubt it will last much longer than SWToR did, and that game had even more hype surrounding it than this game. But we'll see, as OP said, it's still a bit too far out to call out what will happen.

 

[BoogityBoogityMan]

iirc, EVE has 700k subscribers and it is a successful pay2play mmo. If that is the bar, then there is no reason it won't be a success.

If, however, they are like EA and are looking for 5+ million subs, they're fucked.

 

[TilMorrow]

To be honest, I disagree. I think it will do worse than SWTOR did. Maybe not far off what happened to APB? The thing is even though it has the words TES in the title and a similar look to the games and has all the content in it to make it look like a TES game, it just isn't. From what I've read about it, there's a lot of stuff being put in that will most likely put off a lot of TES fans (taking out free-flow combat for example and placing less importance on your character). I just have a feeling that even if they work really hard on it and everything it's going end up tanking and not even stick around to be a F2P.

Also P2P stuff has never really been seen in anything but a bad light. ("What! I have to pay $60 for this game as well as $10-15 per month!!!" *Grumble, Grumble forks over cash*)

Now granted while TESO is indeed less of a WoW clone then Swtor was...

Wait what?

 

[Korten12]

Now granted while TESO is indeed less of a WoW clone then Swtor was...

Wait what?

Considering it's class system is a lot more free form, and it's combat plays like Skyrim, whereas Swtor played a lot like Wow, hell even when you killed enemies, the xp color was purple (a nitpick but kind of a coicendance.)

 

[The Madman]

Depends on how much money is being thrown at the project. Problem with a game like The Old Republic is that publishers and developers invested so much into the project, tens of millions of dollars, that nothing short of ground-breaking success is an option just in order to try and make that investment back, nevermind actually turn a profit.

Just think, TOR right now has what, maybe 500k subscribers? That's a ton of money every month. But again because of how much they spent just to make the damned game it's still not enough to be considered a success and so the game is floundering as a result.

So as for this MMO it all comes down to how well it's managed.

 

[ohnoitsabear]

To be honest, I disagree. I think it will do worse than SWTOR did. Maybe not far off what happened to APB?

Look, I don't think this game will be a runaway hit either, but there is no way in hell it's going to do anywhere near as badly as APB. APB couldn't last three months, and when it went down, it took down the entire studio that made it. This happened because it was a completely shitty game. I would guess that the only reason the free to play version is alive at all is because the company that bought the rights to convert it to a free to play game invested so little into it.

TESO just looks generic and not faithful to the gameplay of the series. Not great by any means, but still not close to the utter shit that APB was. I will be the first to admit that my prediction could be wrong, and it could be much better or worse than I expect. Still, there is no way this game won't have some redeeming value to it, unlike APB.

At worst, this game is probably going to be along the lines of the Secret World in terms of success. Doesn't do nearly as well as hoped, and seriously hurts the company, but has enough dedicated fans that it's not a complete failure. Honestly, I don't even think it will do that bad, but that's just pure speculation.

 

[Signa]

NO!

SWTOR was actually successful. Or at least it will have been comparatively so.

 

[hazabaza1]

You mean suffer, crash and burn?
Yuuuuuuuuuuuuup. No doubt about it.

 

[Riley Holt]

To paraphrase Yahtzee, "I hate people." If I want to go on an epic adventure, I want to be the only one doing it. Morrowind, Oblivion, Fallout 3 and NV, I love them because I can go at my own pace, do as I please, and just have a good time about it. I don't have to worry about someone twenty levels higher than me coming up and killing me "for teh lulz," or having to team up (*shudder*) to take on some big boss monster in a cave somewhere. I see the logic behind TESO, but at the same time, it's illogical because TES games were built on a single-player adventure. KOTOR had two amazing single-player games, and then TOR crashed and burned, as OP said. Some people like multi-player, and good for them. I'm not one, and if the TES franchise is damaged by this attempt at an MMO, I'm going to be quite irritated.

And to end this rant, I think the folks behind STO could essentially take the storyline of the game, polish it (significantly), upgrade the graphics (and fix the ground missions), flesh out your Bridge Officers a little more, and make a pretty decent single-player game. Because the "MMO" aspect only exists for: a) annoying "Fleet" missions, b) broken PvP, and c) seeing other captains running about.