Is Nintendo becoming irrelevant?

[DrOswald]

That graph pretty much proves my point. The gaming handhelds sales are declining, while in those same years (2010+) smartphone and tablet sales are rising.

So? Why compare smartphone sales to console sales? Of course more people are buying smartphones; THEY'RE PHONES. People may play games on them but that's not why they buy them. People will always want a phone, not everyone wants a console- handheld or otherwise. Also, bear in mind that the 3DS isn't that far behind the DS original, and that's WITHOUT an exclusive Pokemon game at launch. What do you want to bet that, come October, the 3DS's start flying out of stores so fast that they have to start handing out padded clothing?

I'm talking about handhelds in particular in that post.

Well, my point still stands. Phone =/= Console and consumers know it.

Yes, and the PC is also not a console. All of the above are gaming platforms. There is a subgroup called handhelds, which includes smartphones, tablets and gaming handhelds. Consumers get smartphones and tablets due to their multipurpose functionality, which includes gaming.

Most people don't care about the arbitrary definition of console (which doesn't make sense anymore, anyway).

But what people do care about are games. You get a different gaming experience, a better one, with a dedicated handheld. The machines have a different purpose and a different audience.

I will grant you that some people who would have purchased a 3DS will not because they have a phone, but comparing smart phone sales to 3DS sales is about as meaningful as comparing milk sales to bottled water sales; there is an underlying overlap in the consumer group and they even compete on some level, but they really don't have the same goals.

Lets instead compare things that are similar to the 3ds. Like, say, the Nintendo DS.

After 2 years (plus 1 month due to reporting cycles) the Nintendo DS sold 35.61 million units.

After 2 years (plus 1 month for the same reason) the Nintendo 3DS sold 31.09 million units.

The 3DS is about 13% behind its predecessor. Now consider that this comparison heavily favors the DS. The DS had 3 holiday seasons in that 2 year time frame compared to the 2 holiday seasons the 3DS has had so far. In both of the years the 3DS has been out it sold more units in Q4 than the rest of the year combined. With the release of high profile games in Q3 and Q4 of this year and the 2DS it is probable that this will be the best Q4 for the 3DS yet.

The 3DS is lagging behind the DS in terms of sales, but the difference really is not that much. The chart being thrown around in this thread is a ridiculous manipulation of data designed to prove a point. It actually only measures sales of the handhelds in Q1 and Q2 of each year - when the 3DS does its absolute worst. It is designed to make the 3DS look as bad as possible when compared to the DS, which did not have a sales cycle nearly as lopsided.

Read my other comments on this topic. I already replied to a similar comment earlier.

In the process of writing my post I read everything you have already posted in this thread. You didn't seem to address much of anything I said in my post in any of them. Maybe you misunderstood my points; I will clarify.

You said that people are not buying 3DS's because they have tablets and smart phones. I pointed out that a dedicated handheld is a different type of machine than a tablet or a smart phone. They have a different purpose, different strengths and weaknesses, and do not directly compete. Maybe I should have been more robust in my explanation, but I felt confident you could fill in the details yourself. My mistake, I was not clear. In any case, my point is that a tablet or smart phone is an imperfect substitute for a dedicated handheld, a point which you have yet to address.

I backed up this claim with sales data. You have pointed to the fact that handheld sales are on the decline, and draw the conclusion that handheld gaming is irrelevant (or at least significantly less relevant) in the world of smart phones and tablets. I counter that by pointing out that the 3DS is keeping step with the DS in terms of sales since release. In fact, if you compare the first 21 months of sales for the consoles (giving both consoles the same amount of holiday seasons to sell in but also giving them both the same amount of actual time) then the 3DS actually has performed better than the DS. If the 3DS, in a world of tablets and smartphones, can do roughly as well as the DS did pre tablets and smart phones then the data strongly suggests that the substitutability of a tablet or smart phone for a dedicated gaming platform is low. As a consequence, this also demonstrates that your theory that the tablet/smart phone is pushing the dedicated handheld out of the market is incorrect. Another point which you have not yet addressed.

I also demonstrated that the chart that you said "proves my point" is a deliberate misrepresentation of data in the most biased manner possible, though I recognize you were not the one to bring it into this thread. I didn't have much of a point here other than that chart should be ignored.

And just to head off a particular point, the overall decline in handheld console sales is primarily due to the decline of DS sales since 2010. The reason for this is easily explained: Everyone interested already has a DS and fewer and fewer games are being created for the console. If the 3DS follows the same long term sales pattern as the DS, a sales goal which it has matched (as demonstrated above,) then we can expect an increase in handheld sales as the 3DS enters its golden years and people begin to replace their old DS with the newer console.

 

[Raika]

To ask the question 'is Nintendo becoming irrelevant?' implies that Nintendo is currently relevant. Nintendo ceased to be relevant years ago when it became very much apparent that they'd rather make Wii Fit than anything else. Constant remakes of New Super Mario Bros. will not change that.

 

[Mudokon]

when the new Zelda title comes out (Zelda U) this thread will look like irrelevant and yes im a fan (boy) but not Nintendo's i am a fan of good games.

 

[wulf3n]

gaming-only handhelds become irrelevant due to the popularity of smartphones and tablets, which can provide gaming along with many other features.

That's like saying consoles are irrelevant because PC's can provide gaming along with many other features.

I'm not saying smartphones haven't/aren't making gaming-only handhelds irrelevant just that there's little evidence to say that it is.

the image posted by Dexter111 arguably shows that the popularity of gaming-only handhelds is merely steadying itself out to Pre-DS levels.

That graph pretty much proves my point. The gaming handhelds sales are declining, while in those same years (2010+) smartphone and tablet sales are rising.

The graph doesn't "prove" anything, that was my point.

Yes they are declining but there's not enough evidence to say why. Smartphone sales were already in the +100 million sales mark by 2008, but gaming handhelds didn't decline until 2010. There's no direct correlation. That's the problem with devices that are multipurpose and those that are specific a sale in one doesn't mean a lost sale in the other.

It's just as likely that the DS was a freak occurrence, and that sales are not likely to reach that level again, and will slump for a while after as people are reluctant to upgrade because the DS still has a an easily accessible games library.

edit: Image removed as it was a prediction not a record of sales.

edit:
Captcha - "A box has 4 sides a Top and a _____"
My answer - "Bottom"
Captcha - "WRONG!!!!!!!!!!!"

 

[Raikas]

To ask the question 'is Nintendo becoming irrelevant?' implies that Nintendo is currently relevant. Nintendo ceased to be relevant years ago when it became very much apparent that they'd rather make Wii Fit than anything else.

Providing a game for an untapped market hardly makes them less relevant - maybe to your interests specifically, but as business decisions go, that's not a weak one. Hanging on to that less traditional market may be more of a challenge, but it remains to be seen how that's going to turn out.

I pointed out that a dedicated handheld is a different type of machine than a tablet or a smart phone. They have a different purpose, different strengths and weaknesses, and do not directly compete. Maybe I should have been more robust in my explanation, but I felt confident you could fill in the details yourself. My mistake, I was not clear. In any case, my point is that a tablet or smart phone is an imperfect substitute for a dedicated handheld, a point which you have yet to address.

This might be a minor point in the discussion that you're having here, but I think the question of indirect competition between dedicated handheld gaming devices and smartphones/tablets is actually one of the most interesting ones in terms of looking at the future of the industry (although I suspect there's an argument to be made that some of that competition is more direct than you give it credit for, at least when it comes to tablets vs. handhelds). I quite honestly haven't seen any hard numbers that support one side or the other, but I certainly do see a lot of anecdotal stories along those lines (watching people on the train, what people are or aren't buying as entertainment for their kids), so it would be interesting to hear more discussion with that focus.

 

[Doom972]

gaming-only handhelds become irrelevant due to the popularity of smartphones and tablets, which can provide gaming along with many other features.

That's like saying consoles are irrelevant because PC's can provide gaming along with many other features.

I'm not saying smartphones haven't/aren't making gaming-only handhelds irrelevant just that there's little evidence to say that it is.

the image posted by Dexter111 arguably shows that the popularity of gaming-only handhelds is merely steadying itself out to Pre-DS levels.

That graph pretty much proves my point. The gaming handhelds sales are declining, while in those same years (2010+) smartphone and tablet sales are rising.

The graph doesn't "prove" anything, that was my point.

Yes they are declining but there's not enough evidence to say why. Smartphone sales were already in the +100 million sales mark by 2008, but gaming handhelds didn't decline until 2010. There's no direct correlation. That's the problem with devices that are multipurpose and those that are specific a sale in one doesn't mean a lost sale in the other.

It's just as likely that the DS was a freak occurrence, and that sales are not likely to reach that level again, and will slump for a while after as people are reluctant to upgrade because the DS still has a an easily accessible games library.

edit: Image removed as it was a prediction not a record of sales.

edit:
Captcha - "A box has 4 sides a Top and a _____"
My answer - "Bottom"
Captcha - "WRONG!!!!!!!!!!!"

You're the one who brought up the graphs, not me. They seem to support what I said. If you changed your mind about them, that's fine with me.
I'd say they really became popular in 2010, once many there were enough different models with different prices, for different needs.

 

[wulf3n]

You're the one who brought up the graphs, not me. They seem to support what I said. If you changed your mind about them, that's fine with me.
I'd say they really became popular in 2010, once many there were enough different models with different prices, for different needs.

The graphs can support a lot of positions, but none are truly proven, is what I was trying to show.

 

[Dragonbums]

It seems that the Escapist is kind of wrapped up in their own little bubble where they assume just because the majority of the community is no longer into a specific thing, it means it's no longer "relevant" to the gamer community as a whole.

Nintendo still has a lot of relevancy in today's market.

However people keep bringing in smartphones as the sword that will slay Nintendo.

Which is silly.

Because again, smartphones are phones first and foremost.
I have a smartphone, and despite me having Angry Birds on it, I use it more or less to browse the internet and watch Youtube videos.

That is basically it.
I still went out of my way to get a 3DS because of the upcoming Pokemon and the host of other games that I have enjoyed immensely like Fire Emblem: Awakening.

The reason why smartphones are selling at 75 million is because once again- they are phones. Everybody needs a phone. Everybody wants the best coolest phone. The coolest phones are Iphones. Second to that are Android/smartphones. However like I stated above, people don't buy smartphones for games. They buy them because they are phones.

I mean, that's like saying consoles will be killed by PC's.

There are way more PC's out there than consoles. But of all the people who have a computer, how many people game on them. Let alone use it for playing video games extensively or with the highest rigs.

The fact that they can co exist should probably tell all of you that smartphones and handhelds compete, but they don't butt heads with each other.

 

[Dragonbums]

Minecraft has gotten 12 million total sales. That's good, sure, but that's not a figure stratospherically ahead of Nintendo's big hitters. Brawl hit a similar sales figure, as did Mario Galaxy.

Your numbers are a little off. [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/127420-Minecraft-Lifetime-Sales-Reach-33-Million] Kids who aren't even that interested in gaming are playing Minecraft now, because they can play it on nearly any platform. These numbers are also before they release the game on PS3, PS4, and Vita. It's the same reason that games like angry birds became so popular with kids. Parents don't need to fork over $299 for a Wii U or $129 for a 2DS to play popular kid friendly games anymore. They can simply pay ~$0.99 to play a game on a device they may already have for other purposes.

Nintendo can't continue to try and compete with that.

Kids just don't buy two games and call it a day.
They are going to want more games to play.

There is only so much enjoyment one can get out of a single game before they go for something else.

My sister plays Minecraft religiously. Yet it didn't stop her from asking my parents to get her a 3DS just so she can play Animal Crossing.

 

[Fiz_The_Toaster]

No, and just because the WiiU is having a rough time doesn't mean they're becoming irrelevant. If they were irrelevant then why did the Wii sell like hot cakes? Granted that was their previous console, but just because the newest one isn't doing as well as the previous one doesn't mean they're screwed.

However, in terms of relevance to me, it's pretty damn low. I'm having a hard time caring about the WiiU and I barely touch the 3DS, but I do my DS. Always will.

The only thing about Nintendo that is irrelevant to me is Mario and most of their first party stuff. I just don't care anymore.

 

[Andy Shandy]

They've moneyhatted Platinum so they won't be irrelevant for me at least. And Sonic too. Pokemon on the handhelds as well.

I struggle to give a flying fuck about the 20 Mario games a year though.

 

[Canadamus Prime]

Isn't this just like your other thread?

I think most of what you're looking for was already answered there. I don't think Nintendo are going anywhere myself or at least I think it's a bit too soon to tell.

Yeah this seems remarkably similar to your other thread VG_Addict.
*sigh*
Anyway no, irrelevant isn't the word I would use. I certainly think they've lost their touch, but I don't think they're going anywhere. At least not yet.

 

[MrMixelPixel]

I love coming to see these threads, just watch j-e-f-f-e-r-s work his magic.

OT: I don' think so. Not to me anyway. I can't imagine why someone wouldn't want a 3DS. The 3D aspect is kind of irrelevant, but game library is great. It'll likely only get better.

 

[Guitarmasterx7]

Well the thing is they took a radically different approach, and for one generation it worked. Casual and non gamers bought into it, and hardcore gamers bought into it. The thing is I think they lost a lot of customer loyalty with that. Casual and non gamers don't need the latest cutting edge gaming technology and don't feel the need to upgrade, and a huge portion of the hardcore crowd who bought a wii ended up using the thing as dust storage and probably don't have much interest in their next console (especially without a proper new Mario or Zelda yet.)

Also we've seen what happened because of the wii's inferior technology and it's happening again with the wiiu. Multiplatform games generally won't be ported to the Wiiu because they would have to accommodate the lack of processing power and different control scheme. Even if it builds up a really good exclusive library, it has to compete with all the other console exclusives as well as the multiplatform games that both other consoles and PC can play.

That doesn't mean it's completely out, nintendo has an insane amount of brand recognition, and most people still like their marios and zeldas, but yeah, on the console front consumer interest as a whole is definitely shifting away from them and they'll have to do quite a bit to prevent it.

 

[Guitarmasterx7]

I love coming to see these threads, just watch j-e-f-f-e-r-s work his magic.

OT: I don' think so. Not to me anyway. I can't imagine why someone wouldn't want a 3DS. The 3D aspect is kind of irrelevant, but game library is great. It'll likely only get better.

I think the OP said he was talking about consoles, but yeah handhelds seem to be the market they do the best in. Maybe they should try to shift their focus to that, or even have the next console be a handheld that comes with integration for tv displays.

 

[Cat Cloud]

I think it's hard to understand the attraction of a system if you don't own one. I like my Wii, partly because I'm able to find games for it that I enjoy and wouldn't be able to get otherwise. Yes, the WiiU isn't doing well right now, but that doesn't mean it's dead, systems don't die like people do. After a while they'll get Super Smash Bros, Fire Emblem vs SMT, Earthbound, and X.

Part of it is that there are some franchises like SMT and Fire Emblem and even Kingdom Hearts that have been focusing more on handhelds and Nintendo consoles recently. So while Nintendo doesn't get the big brand name games that come out for every other system under the sun, pc included, they do get other exclusive games. It can be hard to understand this if you aren't involved or invested in the systems already, and easy to dismiss it as childish and irrelevant.

What I think is weird is people claiming that nintendo games should come out for ios. Have they played the games on Nintendo's systems? They wouldn't translate well button wise, and ios sells games that require low commitment levels and complexity, 8 year olds won't want to play expansive and punishing dungeon crawlers and strategy games on their parents' phones....

 

[bug_of_war]

Which is fine as far as I'm concerned. If they wan't to focus on being the source of gaming for children, and family oriented stuff, that's fine by me. Some of the stories I've heard, about how the Nintendo systems have been installed in nursing homes, and the residents start up digital gaming, bowling leagues. Where they are now getting more exercise, social interaction, as well as something fun to do with their grandkids when they visit. Which I think is awesome. If they want to also focus on game systems for children, with the kind of games that kids always want to play? Well, that's fine with me. I'm not going to buy their products, simply because of my personal interests in gaming, but I won't begrudge them focusing their stuff that way.

Yeah, I don't see why people seem to want Nintendo to fall. They're a good game company, and while there's no way in hell I'mma buy a Wii U, that's not cause I hate them, it's cause I don't like any of the games that are released on the console. From what you said about the Wii and Wii U being put in nursing homes and it's effects, I think Nintendo should be held in high respect for making a console for people of all ages, literally.