Poll: How well do you think the Xbone will sell? (Especially considering DRM scandal)

[frizzlebyte]

I have no doubt it will sell just fine, which scares the ever-loving crap out of me, because then that means this whole debacle will become the norm for all consoles.

 

[ThatQuietGuy]

I predict it will sell better than most of the people that are angry with it think it will but I don't think it's going to sell like hotcakes, that is it's not going to meet Microsoft's expectations.

 

[TwoSidesOneCoin]

It will sell. In large numbers. I don't see the people who already know the DRM/Always on Kinect/Used game restrictions won't be buying one unless they reveal some world shattering games.

The people who don't know about the above will buy it, and then the fun begins for them. Imagine all the little kiddies wondering why they can't play their xbone and when mommy and daddy find out they have to get some sort of wifi or cable so they can keep playing.

Next they have a friend come over and try to play their awesome COD dog edition and guess what mommy and daddy? You have to pay so your son can use the "used" copy of the game!

After the used game thing comes to fruition, imagine the parents will go looking for more information on the system, so as to avoid any surprises, but imagine when they find out that the kinect has been watching and learning, and recording. EVERYTHING, AT ALL TIMES....


The lulz will be stupendous!

 

[Ironside]

The only thing that will determine whether it sells well or not is the price. If they price it reasonably it will sell plenty - most of the people buying it wont care about the anti-consumer shit that MS has stuffed into it and they will buy it regardless.

 

[Stryc9]

It will sell at least as well as the 360 or maybe a little worse for the simple reason that most of the people who are saying "I was looking forward to the next Xbox but after this I don't want it and I'm not buying one." will go ahead and line up on release day and buy one anyway and when confronted with it will either avoid the issue or say they changed their minds.

 

[Trueflame]

That depends on what is meant by "well." I think the Xbone will sell decently, despite the enmity it has earned from the "core" crowd, but I'm fully certain that it won't live up to the 400 million unit expectations Microsoft is placing on it. Also, I'm unconvinced that it will be nearly as successful if the vast majority of its owners turn out to be casuals looking for a TV box rather than gamers. Because gamers spend money on expensive $60 games and Xbox Live. Casuals will only have the Xbox Live and a handful of games at most. And you've gotta wonder why they would even bother with the whole thing, when they can get free internet streaming from an Apple TV or Roku box instead - or even their previous generation systems.

So what exactly is the selling point of the Xbone to them? Simply the Kinect? That's cool, but is it enough? I'm not inclined to think so.

 

[Splitzi]

God I love how people are looking at this as just a game console. Microsoft has made it very clear that it's going for more than just the gaming market. I'm just waiting until they announce their partnerships with cable companies and becomes an all in one cable/game box. Will the PS4 be more popular with hardcore gamers? Absolutely. However Microsoft wants this Xbox to be the 'One' integrated living room device. I think that Xbox is following the PS3's lead. It was very popular because it wasn't just a game console but it happened to be the cheapest Blu-ray player available. The XB1 seems to be going for a cable box + extras model. I can't help feeling that it will sell pretty well domestically because

many Americans (not all) are nothing if not patriotic and xenophobic zealots.

Yes, we are just filled with zeal. Shocking how we are almost exactly like the Japanese except they prefer Sony. Nah, apparently we're just morons. What can I say, we just love our insipid boom fests.

 

[Drops a Sweet Katana]

The Xbone will probably sell better than the 360. Make no mistake, those of us who are upset about the things MS is doing are the vocal minority. Key word there, is "MINORITY". Complaining that the Xbox isn't catering to the core gamer is pointless because we aren't the ones driving sales and therefore profit. We are the ones with the most passion, but the CoD market, the Madden market, and the people they get with the early access to DLC for those games are the ones they are worried about. Not us.

So yeah, it'll sell just fine.

This disembodied head speaks the truth! No matter how much we complain about it, we will be drowned out by the majority. My guess is that the stuff Microsoft is doing with the One won't be noticed or simply tolerated by most. Some people may even try and defend it. I know plenty of people who will defend XBL despite it being an utter sham. The One will, despite our kicking and screaming, sell well. Possibly better than the 360 did.

No, it won't.

People keep going on about 'the unwashed masses' as if we're still living in the Middle Ages or something. People are becoming more tech-savvy every year. Things like consoles are expensive. People might go watch a dumb Michael Bay film like Transformers, because that's only £10 a pop. A new console costs upwards of £300. The majority of people simply don't go out and spend £300+ on a piece of hardware without at least trying to learn somethign about it first. Especially, and this is crucial, in this economic climate.

Right now, people are being more frugal than ever when it comes to money, because the economy is so shit. Therefore, for a new console to come storming out of the gate, it has to offer a phenomenal deal to potential buyers. The Xbox One doesn't. The biggest feature of the Xbox One is that it has wedded itself to a medium that is on the way out: television. Television is slowly but surely losing out to the internet, to Youtube, to Netflix. It's an irreversible trend, just as we say music sales go from CD to iTunes. People don't give a shit about TV anymore: if they want to watch something, they'll watch it on Netflix, or Hulu, or BBC iPlayer, or they'll buy the box set on Amazon.

There's the fact that the Xbone still requires a TV box of somekind to function. Microsoft are advertising this thing as an all-in-one media box, but it isn't, and people know that. It's an add-on to your already existing TV set-up. For most people, their TV set-up is already fine. For everything else mediawise, they have tablets or laptops, or Netflix running on their 360. No-one is going to pay £300+ for a console that still requires all your existing TV boxes to make use of its functions.

Not only that, but the Xbone's advertised TV features will not work outside of America. It is designed purely around American cable services and boxes. Here in the UK, we get out TV paid for by the license fee. Any TV in the UK gets access to the BBC and to Freeview, which comes to around 30 channels. Most people have no need for cable or other such Tv services, which is why the majority of TV owners in the UK don't have Sky satellite TV. And even those that do, Sky has gone on record as saying they're not planning any sort of deal with Microsoft. They've got their own HD+ Box they're trying to sell. Why would they try and work out some sort of deal with Microsoft's competing box?

Microsoft have literally killed any support this console might have gotten outside of America. The 360 sold far less than the PS3 or Wii in Europe this generation. Microsoft have just killed the EU support for this console dead. Absolutely dead.

Then there is that fact that Smart TVs are becoming the next thing, which build a lot of the Xbone's functionality into the TV itself. Why would consumers spend hundreds of pounds on an Xbone when they can get a Smart TV with all the same television features built it for less than £200?

And then there is the fact that the entire press around Xbone has been overwhelmingly negative. Not just from gaming media, but from mainstream media sources like Time, Forbes and the Huff Post. Microsoft has fucked up the PR for this console, and that will affect public perception of it.

Lastly, whether or not you need 'core' gamers in the long term, you need those demographics in the short term, because they're the ones who will buy it at launch. The people who buy consoles at launch, thus paying the highest premium whilst having access to the least amount of games, are hardcore gamers, people who cannot wait to play a system, people who want a console as soon as it comes out. Those are the exact same people Microsoft have been doing their best to piss off, meaning they will not be there at launch. You do not piss off the demographic who will be first in line to support your console. That's marketing 101, and Microsoft screwed that right up.

I know several Escapist's like to have this elitist view of "Well I won't buy the new Xbone because I'm so hardcore, but the average, dim-witted, knuckle-dragging consumer will because they're thick as shit" but that's just self-congratulatory, self-fellating bollocks. Consumers won't buy electronic hardware that is expensive, lacks feautres and has negative press. Apple gets fantastic press, and that helps move their products. Xbone has been getting nothing but negative impressions, and unless Microsoft pulls the mother of U-turns at E3, that means their console is going to sit on store shelves come release. No-one is going to spend hundreds of dollars/pounds on a device which needs their TV box to function in order to do the things other TVs do for cheaper, which has no appeal outside of America, and which spits all over consumer rights. Not in this economy.

I hope you're right about people actually doing research into it before making a decision. However there will still be people who either can't be bothered, are loyal to the Xbox brand (for some reason), have more money than sense or just simply haven't heard any of the bad press because they don't read Forbes, Time or Huff Post, or any outlet of gaming news. Perhaps saying that it might outsell the 360 is a bit much, but I'm sure it will sell fairly well.

 

[Drops a Sweet Katana]

That depends on what is meant by "well." I think the Xbone will sell decently, despite the enmity it has earned from the "core" crowd, but I'm fully certain that it won't live up to the 400 million unit expectations Microsoft is placing on it. Also, I'm unconvinced that it will be nearly as successful if the vast majority of its owners turn out to be casuals looking for a TV box rather than gamers. Because gamers spend money on expensive $60 games and Xbox Live. Casuals will only have the Xbox Live and a handful of games at most. And you've gotta wonder why they would even bother with the whole thing, when they can get free internet streaming from an Apple TV or Roku box instead - or even their previous generation systems.

So what exactly is the selling point of the Xbone to them? Simply the Kinect? That's cool, but is it enough? I'm not inclined to think so.

Did they actually say they were EXPECTING to move 400 million units?! Pfffwot? I want to know who thought this was a realistic expectation, considering the 360 didn't even sell a fifth of that and the Wii, the top selling console of the last generation, only managed a quarter. Who is their dealer and where can I find them. That is some strong shit they've been taking.

 

[Ryan All]

If the Xbone always watches you, you could always just tape a piece of paper with the words "Fuck you" on it, facing the camera.

 

[The Abhorrent]

Here's the interesting thing to consider, particularly concerning the once-per-24-hours online connection detail...

The average consumer has more reason to dislike this than one who has gaming hobbyist.

Think about, it's the dedicated (or "hardcore") players who are condemning this right now. The average person probably doesn't care about this, and there's a better chance they'll be the ones who will be less likely to invest in a persistent connection (even though they're quite common these days); gaming and other internet-dependent activities are mere past-times they do on only an occasional basis, while hobbyists will be more invested and are likely to go that extra mile for the better and persistent connection.

---

If Microsoft doesn't double back on this little detail, I expect the following chain of events to occur:

1. Consumers will still buy the XB1 en masse on launch day... but sales won't be quite as good as expected. The reasons are two-fold here: players who dislike the online connection requirement stated above (or are at least waiting to see how it plays out) won't run out and buy it, and the gaming industry right now is known for generating some very unrealistic expectations for how well things will sell.

2. Players who did buy the console will invariably struggle with the online connection issue for some (if not all) the following reasons: their internet connection struggles with the issue, they didn't realize it was a requirement to do a first-time set-up for the console, and the servers will have issues (based on experience, the possibility of a "smooth online launch" is near-impossible).

3. Backlash, MASSIVE backlash. After strong (but still disappointing) initial sales, next to nothing will follow afterwards. Word-of-mouth will go against the console, reducing the amount of new players willing to invest in the console to only the most dedicated fanatics. Even if there are good games on the console, only the most disillusioned are willing to put up with it.

4. The XB1 gets a firmware update (though it will still require an internet connection to download) which removes this requirement entirely, allowing the console to at least not be a complete flop.

5. Despite the removal of the online connection requirement, the damage has already been done. The XB1, while not a complete disaster, is a profound disappointment.

 

[Caiphus]

Nor does that.

In both instances, don't say you're not going to buy one and then buy one. I get it. Boycotting can be hard if you're the average gamer: selfish and self-entitled. But don't add to that by then becoming a liar and a hypocrite, too. None of these games are essential.

In fact, you know what? That's why game publishers are such authoritarian bitches about their products. They know that they are a luxury item and that we can stop at any time. They know that even the spoiled, "first world problems" crew can dry up if mommy and daddy won't buy them new games or if their minimum wage job at McDonalds dries up. So they panic. Cable companies used to be the same way: utilities tended to give you a larger grace period, but the cable company? If you were half a second later they'd breathe down your neck because "luxury good." They were so scared of losing you they'd lose thei minds.

If we treated games like a luxury good (which it is), game companies would have absolutely no power over us. But we don't, so they do. Power we give them. Power we enforce when we undermine our own boycotts. And even if it was "different," we'll still see people buy the Xbone for the next Halo or whatever else Microsoft snags as an exclusive, so it being software is meaningless.

Look, maybe I'm no different. My only active refusal to buy from a company ended prematurely when THQ went out of business. And even still, odds are I won't buy anything from Volition until the same conditions are met, but I don't know how far my mettle will ever be tested. But I have no plans to buy the XBone, and my latest investments i my PC kind of bear that out. I might still buy 360 games for Multiplayer, but I have no interest in a console where I have to pay a 400 dollar (estimate) entry fee to be treated worse than the free Steam Service, or GoG, or what have you.

This isn't so much a systemic boycott as it is disinterest, but I'd be willing to bet I won't have an Xbone in a year. Or two. Probably even five. And since I don't really care about their exclusives, it's no big deal for me to just skip it. I might skip consoles this gen entirely, depending on the PS4. But at the same time, don't be deluded into thinking they're much different; they've been deliberately vague about updates and how they work and they've said DRM is up to the publishers (in response to "always on" questions). People are giving them the benefit of the doubt despite having nearly as bad press relations as Microsoft.

I'd wait and see before I determined there were really two choices here (three if you count the Wii).

I know!!! I know, I know, I know

Sorry for setting you off on a rant. I'm annoyed by the rallying cries of "Boycott" too, every time a game comes out that the "community" doesn't like for some reason (like the DMC reboot, Call of Duty games, Diablo III, etc). I'm saying that:

SINCE boycotts usually don't work
BECAUSE the gamers are usually too tempted to buy the games anyway
THEN maybe the situation with the Xbone will be different
BECAUSE the potential consumers can, with relative ease, switch their purchase to a very similar product, unlike with games.

Not that I like boycotts. I'm just saying that there might be more chance for people to actually see this one through. If it is a boycott. Like you said, it sounds more just like disinterest from the community at this point.

Maybe it would turn into a boycott if the Xbone was the only console available. And then, of course, that boycott would inevitably fail.

But yeah, if you're going to spend your time on the internet spewing vitriol towards a game, convincing people not to buy it, don't go and then buy it yourself. You fool. You silly fool (not you, Zachary, the other people, you know who you are).

 

[Darks63]

One thing people are forgetting it seems is that despite all the bad features that the Xbox 1 has on the run up to launch day there will be a hype hurricane put out by Microsoft. A hurricane by the end of which Microsoft will have convinced people that the Xbox 1 is soo good the Kinect is fully capable of rendering a solid holographic women who will bang the user 3 times a day(only generic hot women model available with Xbox 1, celeb models and other hot women modles sold as separate dlc). Not to mention despite people laughing at its omg dogs thing the next COD will attract alot of people whom love MP and who always move on to the next big thing in MP.

Oh it will also sell among the tech pron crowd who must own every new gizmo whether they need it or not.

 

[Goofguy]

I think it will sell pretty well. Sure, the dedicated gamer community may stick to their guns and avoid purchasing it but there is no shortage of families and home entertainment enthusiasts who will see the Xbox One as a great all-in-one system.

 

[TheYellowCellPhone]

It's gonna sell well. Nothing is going to stop it from selling, nothing short of requiring you to jerk off a realistic phallus in the likeliness of Gate's own in order to turn the thing on.

The people who buy are the people who want to game more than they want, you know, a good console--these are the people who think they need the Xbone because it's the big thing, and all the downsides are going to be worth it because they need the Xbone to stay with the cool crowd.

The only people I can think of who are sucked into that are the people who are getting the Xbone because all their friends get it, they are gifted the console by someone with little knowledge of the Xbone's controversy, and the people have a loyalty to Microsoft that transcends even the most blatant downsides of the Xbone. (The Xbone has a constant check in to play? Well I don't care, my Internet is always on! Xbone has no reused games? I don't care, so long as I get to play the newest Madden game on the same style controller I've been playing on since 2005!)

So pretty much kids. The ones between eight and fourteen years old. There are a lot of them.

 

[Gormech]

I voted no but then I realized one thing.

The Xbone has one ace up its sleeve: Xbox Live, the best and worst thing for it.

You see, what happens when it shuts off support for the Xbox360?
The CoD horde with the exception of the people boycotting will move on to the new system. (Most of em don't know Sony has the game too.)

 

[Jamieson 90]

Of course it will sell - it's a fucking Xbox. 90% of the people will buy it simply because it says "Xbox" on it, not knowing or caring about the DRM, and the remaining 10% will be the "Well my friend has one so even though I don't like the DRM I got one to play with him" crowd.

You all sicken me. >:{

This seriously. I remember all those people who were protesting over Call of Duty's dedicated services yet were playing day one despite saying they wouldn't. Simply put most people don't care and a large majority of people who say they do will break their pledges anyway, leaving behind a small group of well informed people who won't buy it but will be insignificant anyway.

 

[Therumancer]

Honestly, I have little faith in humanity. I think it will sell as well as the 360 because of the whole social element of it (which Microsoft is counting on) and the number of younger gamers that are so used to being boned by the industry that they don't even see how it could have been any other way, and for them the changes are negligible to what they are already subjecting themselves too already. Basically the millions of kids that worship "Call Of Duty" will buy the system just to play that game and not risk being left out of a peer circle that also does it. Microsoft is banking on it.

Also, sites like "The Escapist" represent a pretty tiny minority of gamers, for the most part we're more informed about gaming, the companies behind it, and all of the things going on. For most consumers all of this stuff we know about isn't something they will find out about until they have already paid money for it and hooked it up, and by then, they will figure "why not, I already did it..". Most people don't pay attention to what people in the gaming industry say at their own conferances, trade shows, etc... I doubt your typical gamer who isn't on a site like this one even knows who a guy like "Bobby Kotick" is, and while they might not like what's going on with the industry couldn't really point fingers at the people involved in making the decisions at gaming companies for products they follow, never mind what's being said at the hardware level. Sony largely got away with their whole removal of OS compadibility on the PS-3 because most people were not aware of the issue, or that it could run things like Linux. Your typical gamer has never heard of George "Geohotz" Hotz, and probably just knows that a bunch of hackers knocked out PSN for a while without knowing the reasons.... in this environment most aren't going to notice the problems with the new Xbox or even be aware there was any controversy.