Poll: Would you be ok with the Games Industry Crashing and not having AAA titles for 5-10 Years?

[boag]

Im not sure where you get this artificial change idea from, what I am making is pondering a scenario, where the market does push for the crash of the Industry either because of over saturation, or consumer dissatisfaction forcing them to abandon the market in droves. Both which are natural occurrences. You cannot artificially initiate a market crash.

Lastly your final statements about CEOs dipping into rainy day funds is incredibly flawed, whenever a CEO fucks up royally he doesnt shift to another CEO job, at least not in the same Industry.

Ah, looks like I misunderstood you then. You seemed to be so focused on the idea of the industry crashing and it being out specifically for 5-10 years that it made me feel like you wanted the big studios to just stop making games for that amount of time.

Perhaps I didnt make my initial statement clear enough, when I talk about the 5-years without AA titles, its because it usually takes around 5-10 years for a market to recover from a crash, depending on many factors

As we've both agreed, these "crashes" have to happen at a time the industry is ready and for the right reasons. However I don't really see a "crash" happening in the way you do. It's really impossible to compare the housing market crash to the games industry, as they are to completely different industries influenced by completely different market forces and under completely different circumstances.

I agree, they are both under entirely different circumstances, circumstances that make the housing market a lucrative investment even during a crash, the main difference and the most important thing you should take note of is that the Real State Industry will always recover, even with people actively sabotaging. The Videogame industry, under the same circumstances would have never recovered.

I think it's more apt to compare what's happening with the likes of Kodak and the transition to digital. The games market is slowly beginning to demand cheaper games which are more convenient to access with less of a presence of the gamemaker in their experience. In other words, cheaper games you don't have to waste hours trying to get at a store or unlock because of ridiculous access codes and DRM. Basically the types of services Steam has to offer.

You know how publishers have been making a big stink about used games lately? That is resistance to these new demands. Gamers are resorting more to used games because the industry isn't offering what they want. The publishers don't want to see the buying of used games as a change in the services they have to offer--just as Kodak wanted to see the digital revolution as a passing trend. Before that sink-or-swim moment, they resisted. They tried to tell the market its demands were wrong. But the customer is always right, and market always wins.

So sometime in the future these publishers are going to be faced with an option. As other publishers like Valve and Apple start coming out with more things like Steam and the app store, they will be forced to change in order to not be made totally obsolete.

Yes I agree, the similarities are far closer with the camera and film industry, since both are more ingrained in services provided than products, however I do not want to take a tangential conversation, on what was my off hand remark about a General Statement with which I completely disagree with. Saying that any industry is to big to fail, is a logical fallacy proven economics, but also by history.

And they won't just "stop" making games for 5-10 years, that's just kind of silly silly. AAA games will always be coming out from somebody. Who does it might change from time to time, but the industry is large and diverse enough now that it won't just "shut down" for a few years and only put out indie games. There are enough replacements lined up in the dugout to keep those AAA games coming out for a good while, even if the usual big-hitters bite the dust.

Indeed, 5-10 years is just an off the top of my head amount of time on how long I believe it would take the industry to recover from a crash akin to the 1970s, I would take horribly monstrous events to keep Industry dead for good.

 

[Malyc]

Crash = get rid of games like COD, Need For Speed, and the really big names that are slowly becoming shitty? Hell yes, bring it on.

 

[Hal10k]

Why is it that I only find these topics after the big econ talk has already started?

I'm going to go squat on the forum page and wait to get on board the next one early.

And no, crashes aren't good for anyone in the short term, and only marginally beneficial in the long term. We want gradual recessions, not crashes.

(Edit: added after my computer freaked out and posted early) The downfall of the current AAA studios, without them being replaced by an equivalent group of distributors, would indicate a drop in demand that would negatively affect the profitability of the industry for years to come, which would severely limit opportunities for growth.

 

[Vegosiux]

Why is it that I only find these topics after the big econ talk has already started?

I'm going to go squat on the forum page and wait to get on board the next one early.

And no, crashes aren't good for anyone in the short term, and only marginally beneficial in the long term. We want gradual recessions, not crashes.

Depends how resentful we are. I mean if I'm going to get screwed over by a gradual recession anyway, why not hope for a crash so some more folks go down with me? Misery loves company after all.

 

[LookingGlass]

Most of my gaming time these days is spent playing older games, including a lot of stuff from GOG, so I could live through that. I don't know what would happen exactly, but if it would bring back lost genres like space combat sims and true survival horror, I'd be happy.

 

[Hal10k]

Why is it that I only find these topics after the big econ talk has already started?

I'm going to go squat on the forum page and wait to get on board the next one early.

And no, crashes aren't good for anyone in the short term, and only marginally beneficial in the long term. We want gradual recessions, not crashes.

Depends how resentful we are. I mean if I'm going to get screwed over by a gradual recession anyway, why not hope for a crash so some more folks go down with me? Misery loves company after all.

I'm surprisingly okay with this philosophy.

 

[Tipatap]

I'm going to go with yes, seeing as how we would have an Indie Explosion. After 4-5 rough years though, I'd be itching for a good-old AAA shooter to rot my brain with.

 

[Zen Toombs]

.....MAYBE, but it's a mite complicated. There are still some great AAA titles, and I would definitely miss them. Also, I'd be pretty surprised if the Games industry crashed anytime soon.

 

[Vault101]

NO

indie gaming is going strong right now..I dotn see any "need" for a crash

you dont liek AAA games? well go on steam or somthing

 

[Gmans uncle]

At the tail end of the 70s, the amount of copy pasted games, over saturated the market resulting in the crash. It leveled the playing field enough that Big companies from back then Atari, Magnavox, Mattel, no longer had a strangle hold on the market.
Thoughts?

The crash happened in 1983
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Video_game_crash_of_1983
Games weren't even available to the common consumer until the mid 80's, please fact check next time.

OT: Shit, I don't know, I'd say no, but I guess you could find some positives in there.

 

[Leg End]

None of you would survive without them . That includes indie games.

All I need for the time it'd take for the industry to get it's shit back together.

In all seriousness though, do any of you actually think the game industry would crash now?

Honestly? Yes.

Gaming is now the biggest in the entertainment industry in the world, at this point, its too big to crash...ever.

You may want to do a bit of research.

Come on people let's be realistic here. AAA industries, indie developers, they will never go away, like it or not.

End of story.

We're not saying "go away", we are saying crashing, burning, then a rebirth.

To me... I actually don't want it, hoping that it can be done without a crash but, can it happen? Yes, it's a very real possibility.

I still say Nintendo should survive and lead the rebirth.

EDIT: OT: The thread title and the poll are asking two entirely different things. Be ok with it? Eh. Want it to die? Fack no.

 

[boag]

Why is it that I only find these topics after the big econ talk has already started?

I'm going to go squat on the forum page and wait to get on board the next one early.

And no, crashes aren't good for anyone in the short term, and only marginally beneficial in the long term. We want gradual recessions, not crashes.

(Edit: added after my computer freaked out and posted early) The downfall of the current AAA studios, without them being replaced by an equivalent group of distributors, would indicate a drop in demand that would negatively affect the profitability of the industry for years to come, which would severely limit opportunities for growth.

yes I see your point, however I do believe that a gradual recession would be worse, it would limit and stifle new projects and companies from getting of the ground, while cementing the already cash proven franchises.

The bounce of most recessions has always enabled new companies to take the place of older business that didnt adapt quickly in time. More often than not, its people from the same old business that spearhead these new start ups.

 

[boag]

At the tail end of the 70s, the amount of copy pasted games, over saturated the market resulting in the crash. It leveled the playing field enough that Big companies from back then Atari, Magnavox, Mattel, no longer had a strangle hold on the market.
Thoughts?

The crash happened in 1983
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Video_game_crash_of_1983
Games weren't even available to the common consumer until the mid 80's, please fact check next time.

OT: Shit, I don't know, I'd say no, but I guess you could find some positives in there.

Thank you for the fact check, I will amend it to future posts.

 

[pwnzerstick]

It certainly wouldn't last for 5 years, but I think publishers need to stop being so stupid, and a crash would most likely fix this. Of course the problem is that it seems that no matter what stupid ideas these publishers come up with, people still buy their products anyway.

 

[TomLikesGuitar]

It'll never happen again simply because too many people play video games.

They're leagues much more accessible today.

 

[boag]

What? and have thousands of people lose their jobs to "level the playing field" No way in hell would I support this! what would the benefits be of loads of people losing their jobs because your unhappy with how things are now!

Most of the times Industries have been revitalized from crashes, sure the immediate fallout would put a lot of people out of work, but I do believe a more fair business practice would replace it.

As it is, from what ive seen developers working under a big publisher usually get screwed big time.

 

[Heaven's Guardian]

That would kill the video games industry almost entirely. Indie games are indie for a reason: most of them simply aren't any good, and we only hear about the very few that are. A collapse of AAA titles means that all of the consoles collapse with them, leaving gaming only on PC. Piracy makes it very difficult to make profitable games on PC anyway, and a lot of companies need consoles to survive. The Escapist user base has a lot of PC gamers, but most franchises make their money off of consoles.

Beyond that, it would destroy a generation of developers, who would have no hope of getting any funding and would go into different careers. Most indie developers work in hopes of getting a position at a major studio, because that's how to make a living in the industry. All current developers would need to find new jobs, and at the end of the crash you wouldn't have the qualified programmers and developers to succeed, let alone the infrastructure. The industry was able to survive after the last crash because gaming was far less specialized at the time, considering the technical limitations. Combine that with the years of technical stagnation resulting from no top-end developers. If you think that AAA-titles are all rehashes, which is at least a defensible position, the answer is simple: don't buy them. But if you think that some major reform would happen after a collapse, think again. Worst-case scenario is the end of the industry, and the best-case scenario is a return to what we have today, for a very simple reason: that's what people buy, and that isn't going to change.

 

[Zack1501]

I lot of AAA games suck but I don't want to imagine a world without skyrim/portal/batman arkham city kind of games. I could live of flash and indie games but some of the greatest games are still industry.

 

[Hal10k]

Why is it that I only find these topics after the big econ talk has already started?

I'm going to go squat on the forum page and wait to get on board the next one early.

And no, crashes aren't good for anyone in the short term, and only marginally beneficial in the long term. We want gradual recessions, not crashes.

(Edit: added after my computer freaked out and posted early) The downfall of the current AAA studios, without them being replaced by an equivalent group of distributors, would indicate a drop in demand that would negatively affect the profitability of the industry for years to come, which would severely limit opportunities for growth.

yes I see your point, however I do believe that a gradual recession would be worse, it would limit and stifle new projects and companies from getting of the ground, while cementing the already cash proven franchises.

The bounce of most recessions has always enabled new companies to take the place of older business that didnt adapt quickly in time. More often than not, its people from the same old business that spearhead these new start ups.

It is true that a recession would likely leave most of the established bigwig companies largely intact, but the most successful companies to ride the crest out of a recession are generally those that adopt new practices to appeal to larger or different markets. Consider what Nintendo's strategy was after facing a reduced market share with the Gamecube (more of a localized failure, but bear with me): they released the Wii, which, for better or worse, appealed to a large demographic and opened the way for a new style of gaming. A recession forces change; a crash just burns everything to the ground in the hope that something new will take its place. Ultimately, a recession is the lesser of two evils.