The next gaming crash: Do you see the signs?

[XMark]

I'm seeing a lot of comments about how PC gaming is on the rise. That's definitely true but one thing to keep in mind is that we're approaching the end of an exceptionally long console generation so PCs have had a lot of time to benefit from technological evolution while the consoles stay the same.

When the next generation of consoles hits the market we'll see the PC's market share slide back again. The cycle will continue as long as there remains a difference between consoles and PCs. Of course, consoles are getting more PC-like while the gaming PC platform is becoming more standardized and console-like so there may no longer be a dividing line after the next generation.

 

[Arkynomicon]

The market as we know it today probably wont be around in 10 years. This might be a good thing because I don't like how things are being run now.

 

[saintdane05]

the 3DS isn't doing too good either, .

And that is where you are wrong. The 3ds is currently Nintendo's fastest selling handheld. It took a few months to take off, but it did.

 

[TheSapphireKnight]

A crash to the degree of 1983? Not a chance. A decline at some point in the future isn't outside the realm of possibility, but nothing to the degree of the 1983 decline.

Some years will be better than others, both financially and creatively. Companies, even established ones, will come and go. Its just how things work. Games of today have become far more than what they were during that time and are far more entrenched.

 

[SajuukKhar]

The video game crash of 1983 was caused by there being a multitude of video game consoles, upwards of 10, each with their own libraries, a highly ill-informed consumer base who very often didn't know what system the thing they bought was actually for, and a plethora of cheaply made games being released in mass number.
.
.
Lets look at the modern day shall we?
We have 3 consoles, and the PC
We have the internet, which has made the average consumer extremely more informed
We have significantly less games being released
Bad games today are, on average, significantly less shitty compared to good games of today, then bad games were compared to good games back in the 1980's
.
.
The "worsening" of games today is really only as bad as it seems because of a highly vocal minority of "old-school" gamers rebelling over what they see as a insult against the way gaming was in the past.

The thing is though that those people are an extreme minority, however their vocalness, because content people rarely say anything, makes it seem like more people are pissed then actually are.

 

[imperialus]

I'm more excited about games I'll be playing in the next few months than I have been in years.

http://www.xenonauts.com
http://www.grimrock.net
http://www.fractalsoftworks.com
http://wasteland.inxile-entertainment.com/

 

[isometry]

The main point missing from your argument is the historical connection to the original and ONLY recorded video game "crash" in history. If you can draw some parallel's you'd have a more compelling point. I honestly don't see a crash coming anytime soon, but we are in the process of a massive paradigm shift. I suspect by the time the next console gen starts we are going to be looking at a completely different industry.

The parallels are there: the arcade industry peaked in 1982 on the basis of non-traditional demographics and aggressive micro-transactions (feeding quarters into the machine to keep playing).

It's not easy to demonstrate the case for non-traditional demographics because of lack of sources, but here is a 1982 article called "Women Join the Arcade Revolution":

http://archive.org/stream/electronic-games-magazine-1982-05/Electronic_Games_Issue_03_Vol_01_03_1982_May#page/n29/mode/2up

The article has some demographic statistics such as 42% of female gamers being between 25-40. This was a time when arcade cabinets were being installed everywhere from laundry mats to office waiting room, and when ideas like "let's put a bow on Pac-man's head and call it Ms Pac-Man" were lucrative ideas for sequels.

The console gaming crash of 1983 is a little different, since it was more about bad game quality and over-saturation of the market than about micro-transaction revenue from a casual gaming fad. The analysis I presented here was more relevant in 2009-2010 when everyone was saying that casual facebook gaming would be the next big thing, when in fact it was a repeat of the early 80s arcade fad. I still think the general decline of arcades in favor of home consoles shows how core gamers feel about micro-transactions vs owning the game outright (i.e. anything based on micro-transactions / free-to-play is a fad).

 

[pilouuuu]

I think we'll be fine as soon as this gen dies horribly and the PC is ready to take over again, which means better graphics and more innovation. And then next gen can come to start spiralling the industry all over again.

 

[dessertmonkeyjk]

If the crash did happen then we would possibly see a surge of 'indie' teams building and spreading out games all over the internet with possible kickstater funded projects to boot.

Sounds like a good thing? I just wonder what happens to all of the IPs that will be floating around caught in its wake.

 

[Gennadios]

If the crash did happen then we would possibly see a surge of 'indie' teams building and spreading out games all over the internet with possible kickstater funded projects to boot.

Sounds like a good thing? I just wonder what happens to all of the IPs that will be floating around caught in its wake.

This.

It all boils down to publishers holding on to hardcopy sales for dear life, consoles slowly becoming irrelevant, and the rise of digital distribution platforms.

I'd say a crash would be a good thing, it'll really hurt the publishers and tripple A titles. Most of the real creativity's going on in the indie scene anyway, and digitial distribution makes it that much easier for them to be noticed, I won't miss much.

 

[GonzoGamer]

It can't happen.

The old crash was due to people not buying crappy games with zero innovation and little motivation to be creative.

These days, people will buy them in the boat-load.

LOL.
This is true.
Games have their own (very...perhaps overly) dedicated consumer base now. Practices that would've killed any other medium/media are largely defended by the consumer base.
So while there's no big crash in the near future, console gaming has still seen a decline since last generation when it should really still be growing.

 

[Phlakes]

*Sigh.

Go get whatever college degree is relevant to being an industry analyst, then we'll talk. Because no. Just no.

 

[Crazy Zaul]

For me the games industry has already declined to some extent. It feels like there are a lot less good games per year than there used to be, probably because of the economy and the way that games are 'mainstream-izing' to the point where genres aren't relevant any more, and also that they are moving to a multiplayer focus. Or maybe its just cos I was more easily satisfied when I was younger.
But there is also the fact that EA is slowly taking over the industry because they are one of very few publishers who actually still make good games, while others that used to be good like Ubisoft and Activision are crap now, and EA are exploiting this by being the leader of using dickish practices.

As for used games, well they would appear to also be in decline based on where I live as the other day I found it surprisingly difficult to trade a game in. I went to CEX and they had no cash cos apparently they run out early in the day, I went to GAME and it was of course closed, then Gamestation said they don't trade for cash anymore for obvious reasons, and there was as usual jack all in stock to exchange for. In the end I had to trade it in at blockbuster for a lot lower value cos I CBA Ebaying it.

/endblog

 

[lacktheknack]

Welp, time to shovel money at gog.com and play more Dwarf Fortress, then, as well as play things I already own that won't be affected by the consoles dying/the AAA industry folding.

You know, as I already do.

 

[BoogityBoogityMan]

I'm not going to read the whole thread, but what is happening is that tradition big AAA game producers are crashing. Cheap ipad/f2p/social games are exploding.

And it might interest people to know that traditional gaming revenue has been in decline since 2008 and is accelerating. (traditional being games made by companies like EA).

 

[pilouuuu]

The crash will be just for consoles.

I think that PC will really take over gaming in this next generation:

- backwards compatibility
- mods
- being able to play used games
- mouse and keyboard
- indie games

CAPTCHA: Union Jack

 

[TehCookie]

Gaming won't financially crash, just artistically (well not the best choice of words with the whole art debate, but creatively? innovatively?). Gaming will stop being a niche appeal and instead sell to a shallow mass market audience that will but it by the boatloads. Even if they have to deal with things like Origin they don't know better.